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QB of the Future: Trey Lance


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If there is one QB in the first round I can envision the Patriots selecting, it is none other than North Dakota State's Trey Lance.

-NDSU is the alma mater to recent second overall pick Carson Wentz, whom some here have started to suggest might be a target of the Patriots in some capacity following the 2020 season.

-Trey Lance was recruited as a top prospect by Division I schools at positions such as safety, outside linebacker, and receiver despite playing QB in high school.

-Lance has a certain "prove the world wrong" mindset that has carried over from the recruiting process after his favorite team, (the Minnesota Golden Gophers), offered no scholarship for him to play QB.

-There is an abundant amount of athleticism that is seemingly requisite in today's NFL to play quarterback at an elite level.

-Projected as one of four QB prospects to be selected in the 2021 first round.

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Speaking of Trey Lance and Minnesota...

😉

Folk will be fine for another season so if Cade York isn't eligible to be drafted until 2022 then I can wait. Wouldn't be shocked if he is a second round pick by some NFL team, not just the Patriots/Belichick & Caserio.

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Trey Lance scares the hell out of me .. he has only played one season and he has had a season off .. so you're talking about a young kid who is REALLY raw. If the Patriots were to draft him ( I think he will be there in the 10-15 range) ZERO chance he plays a game next season. We have seen how much BB doesn't like playing young guys, no chance he plays this kid. If Cam were to be resigned on another one year deal it may make sense to have him be a mentor for Lance. 

Personally, I don't want his style of football to be the future. I don't want 10 years of Cam / Lamar Jackson. His stats are incredibly similar to Cam's last season at Auburn ( of course against much worse competition).. 66% completion .. over 1,000 rushing yards. Is he the future of the league? is he the next Kyler Murray? idk.. I dont think we can answer that given his level of competition, but I would have hoped that he would be able to complete over 70% of his passes given the low level of competition. Zach Wilson for instance is I think tat 75% completion compared to his 66%. 

0 INT is certainly nice though, i'll give him that. 

He is the ultimate boom or bust candidate in this draft imo.. he could be incredible.. maybe even the best qb in this draft.. but he could also flame out and get a coach / gm fired. 

 

Are we going to have a combine this season? If so, he could really dazzle people with a great 40 / doing well in the passing drills. Not playing this season really hurt him though. I really want a great passing offense again... not a running qb and that's what I worry about with him.. 150 yards passing and 70 yards rushing every game. Kyler Murray isn't an amazing passer but he's done much better than I expected, can he have a similar career to Kyler? That's a lot to ask but I think that would probably be best case scenario. 

 

Sorry for rambling, this kid as a prospect scares the heck out of me .. but if BB gets behind him i'm sure he will have a good chance of developing given that he will sit for at least 1 season.. if not more to develop. unfortunately I feel like that will mean we see Cam Newton as the starting QB again next season as he helps Lance develop. 

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20 years of Brady has turned so many Pats fans into such giant babies, it's honestly embarrassing. If you're scared of Lance because you "don't want his style of football to be the future" then what exactly do you want from this team moving forward? There's not going to be more than 1 guy coming through the draft in any given year who would be able to start from day 1 in Belichick's offense, by your own criteria. And that guy is basically guaranteed to be snagged up within the first 5 picks of the draft. 

This team's options are either to sell out for a top-5 pick this season, tank next season and hope there's a guy like that in the draft (probably not), or take a guy like Lance at 15-16 and sit him a year behind a stopgap. There's gonna be pain and frustration with any of these options. 

I say it's better to take the highest ceiling guy possible and coach him up, even if you have to live through his growing pains. Impatience costs teams in this league the chance at long-term success all the time. If we can't handle some rebuilding in order to be better set up for the future, then we really are what other fanbases say we are - spoiled.

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42 minutes ago, Starless said:

20 years of Brady has turned so many Pats fans into such giant babies, it's honestly embarrassing. If you're scared of Lance because you "don't want his style of football to be the future" then what exactly do you want from this team moving forward? There's not going to be more than 1 guy coming through the draft in any given year who would be able to start from day 1 in Belichick's offense, by your own criteria. And that guy is basically guaranteed to be snagged up within the first 5 picks of the draft. 

This team's options are either to sell out for a top-5 pick this season, tank next season and hope there's a guy like that in the draft (probably not), or take a guy like Lance at 15-16 and sit him a year behind a stopgap. There's gonna be pain and frustration with any of these options. 

I say it's better to take the highest ceiling guy possible and coach him up, even if you have to live through his growing pains. Impatience costs teams in this league the chance at long-term success all the time. If we can't handle some rebuilding in order to be better set up for the future, then we really are what other fanbases say we are - spoiled.

TLDR

rebuilds take time

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Hard to think about QB of the future at this point. I remember when Tony Eason was our QB of the future and in all the year between then and now I have never dreaded watching the Patriots until now. Sending Cam out there again next weeks and likely the next three is not something I'm looking forward too. I would almost rather get blown out with Stidham at this point because at least we would know exactly how bleak the future is...

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Rebuilds take time, I think we can all agree on that. Pats fans are very spoiled too, I think we can all agree on that. After seeing Cam can't we also all agree that we want our Quarterback to be a great thrower of the football? 

Running QB's are more prone to injury, have a hard time coming from behind to win games, and have never won a super bowl ( I don't think at least). I wouldn't want Jalen Hurts, Taysom Hill, Lamar Jackson, etc. personally. 

IF BB believes Lance has the potential to be an elite throwing QB who can run when he has to, great.. but I don't want a running QB who can throw sometimes. You aren't going to win championships that way. I'm all for watching a players develop too, winning championships with home grown talent and watching those players develop makes a championship even better ( here's hoping the Celtics get one soon with Brown/Tatum) .. but please don't draft 2020 Cam Newton. 

I say all of this with the disclaimer that I've only watched him play one full game and miscellaneous highlights. If someone here has watched him extensively and believes he can develop into an elite passer / decision maker I'd jump on the Lance bandwagon because I think he could totally be there when the Patriots pick in the 1st round. 

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Just now, Crimmage said:

Running QB's are more prone to injury, have a hard time coming from behind to win games, and have never won a super bowl ( I don't think at least). I wouldn't want Jalen Hurts, Taysom Hill, Lamar Jackson, etc. personally. 

Steve Young and Russell Wilson 

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You may have me with Steve Young, he was a bit before my time so I've only ever seen highlights. 

Russell Wilson however I would not consider to be a running quarterback personally. He runs as a last resort or when teams just give it to him. Most of the time he runs to pass which is most important. He is accurate in and out of the pocket and when he escape pressure in pocket he is still looking to pass outside of the pocket finding huge yardage plays because that's when defenses fall apart. I don't know his stats off the top of my head but he's probably a 65%+ completion guy compared to Vick or Cam who are likely in that 50-55% range.  

When I think running QB I think Michael Vick / Lamar Jackson type players. Might have a cannon for an arm, incredible runners but not accurate passers.

If you look at Trey Lance highlights 2/3 of them are him running .. which is fun for highlights, but I don't see many where he escapes the pocket then tries to pass the football.  

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1 minute ago, Crimmage said:

You may have me with Steve Young, he was a bit before my time so I've only ever seen highlights. 

Russell Wilson however I would not consider to be a running quarterback personally. He runs as a last resort or when teams just give it to him. Most of the time he runs to pass which is most important. He is accurate in and out of the pocket and when he escape pressure in pocket he is still looking to pass outside of the pocket finding huge yardage plays because that's when defenses fall apart. I don't know his stats off the top of my head but he's probably a 65%+ completion guy compared to Vick or Cam who are likely in that 50-55% range.  

When I think running QB I think Michael Vick / Lamar Jackson type players. Might have a cannon for an arm, incredible runners but not accurate passers.

If you look at Trey Lance highlights 2/3 of them are him running .. which is fun for highlights, but I don't see many where he escapes the pocket then tries to pass the football.  

You need to look at Russ' stats my man. 

Games Rushing Receiving Total Yds    
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rush Yds TD 1D Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD 1D Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb
Career       140 140 788 4417 20 254 55 5.6 31.6 5.6
2012* 24 SEA QB 3 16 16 94 489 4 29 25 5.2 30.6 5.9                       94 5.2 489 4 6
2013* 25 SEA QB 3 16 16 96 539 1 31 27 5.6 33.7 6.0                       96 5.6 539 1 12
2014 26 SEA QB 3 16 16 118 849 6 47 55 7.2 53.1 7.4 1 1 17 17.0 0 1 17 0.1 1.1 100.0% 17.0 119 7.3 866 6 13
2015* 27 SEA QB 3 16 16 103 553 1 31 24 5.4 34.6 6.4                       103 5.4 553 1 7
2016 28 SEA QB 3 16 16 72 259 1 18 18 3.6 16.2 4.5 2 2 14 7.0 1 1 15 0.1 0.9 100.0% 7.0 74 3.7 273 2 8
2017* 29 SEA QB 3 16 16 95 586 3 36 31 6.2 36.6 5.9                       95 6.2 586 3 14
2018* 30 SEA QB 3 16 16 67 376 0 25 40 5.6 23.5 4.2 1 1 -11 -11.0 0 0 -11 0.1 -0.7 100.0% -11.0 68 5.4 365 0 10
2019* 31 SEA QB 3 16 16 75 342 3 17 21 4.6 21.4 4.7                       75 4.6 342 3 8
2020 32 SEA QB 3 12 12 68 424 1 20 34 6.2 35.3 5.7                       68 6.2 424 1 7
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I will say that, based on this video, I don't think Lance is a true 1st round prospect.

He tends to sail his intermediate throws, especially to the perimeter, which I think has to do with the fact that he doesn't set his feet properly when making those directional throws. He doesn't throw with anticipation, either. I don't really see him hitting guys in stride on horizontal routes. The few times he came off his primary read to make a throw, he looked flat-footed.

On top of that, he made a number of questionable decisions with the ball that would have cost him dearly at the NFL level. That interception at the 6-minute mark is absolutely brutal. 

All this stuff is fixable, but I wouldn't feel comfortable with him starting at the pro level as a rookie at all. His ceiling appears to be current Josh Allen. But to get current Josh Allen, you'll have to live through rookie Josh Allen. 

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