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NFC #1 Overall Seed Watch


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We are all focused on the NFC West division race, the Saints losing today to the Eagles have opened the door wide open for the Rams to possibly get the 1 seed in the NFC. This is the teams that have a legit shot at the 1 seed and what they have left.

1 Packers (10-3) (8-2) vs Panthers, vs Titans, at Bears

2 Saints (10-3) (8-2) vs Chiefs, vs Vikings, at Panthers

3 Rams (9-4) (8-2) vs Jets, at Seahawks, vs Cards

5 Seahawks (9-4) (6-3) at Washington, vs Rams, at Niners

 

 

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For me I think the Packers will lose to the Titans because the Titans can run the ball with Henry and the Packers cant stop the run. The Bears will be that sneaky game at the end because the Bears are 1 game out of the 7th seed and they will be playing hard to sneak in. The Packers could finish (12-4) at best but if the Bears could steal a win the Packers could finish (11-5).

Saints will lose to the Chiefs but since thats an out of conference game its not going to effect them too much when it comes to tiebreakers. Ill be looking at that Vikings game though. In the end I think the Saints finish (12-4)

Rams will beat the Jets and it will come down to the Seahawks and Cards. Im not really worried about the Cards as they will have to beat the Rams finally before I even sweat on them. The Seahawks will be a huge game not just for the division but possibly for that 1 seed. I think the Rams can run the table though and get to (12-4)

Seahawks obviously have to beat the Rams if they want to win the NFCW. That Washington game quietly has become interesting with the way they are playing especially the fact they can get after the QB and the Seahawks cant protect Wilson all that well. Dont be surprised when Seattle have to travel a long east coast trip they lose. That will definitely put all the pressure on them to beat the Rams and obviously they will finish off by beating the Niners. So I could see them finishing (10-6).

So really we could see realistically the Packers, Saints, and Rams all finishing (12-4). If that happens I think the Rams will get top 1 seed due to overall strength of schedule then the Packers because they beat the Saints head to head then the Packers. So Rams need to run the table and have the Packers and Saints each lose one game in which I said Saints will lose to the Chiefs and the Packers will lose to the Titans. We shall see though. 

Edited by stl4life07
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5 hours ago, jrry32 said:

I don't know that it's particularly feasible for us to get the #1 seed, but I'd sure like that the bye. Regardless, let's just take care of business.

If the most likely path for a 3-way 12-4 tie is the Pack dropping a game to Tennessee and th Saints losing this week to the Chiefs, then I dont think we can get there.

The next 3 way tie breaker after Conference record (we would all be 10-2) is Games vs Common Opponents, and unfortunately, it will be those 2 losses to SF that do us in. The Common Opponents are SF - PHI - CHI - TB, each team with a double in-Division Opponent. We would be 3-2, NO is 4-1, and GB is 3-1 for now with another game against the Bears in week 17.

Our most doable path to the #1 seed is ending up in a tie with just the Packers (NO looses to the Chiefs and then drops another to MIN with Brees rusty in his comeback) and that the Packers drop one more, but not to the Titans, but to the Bears in Week 17. That would have us tied in Wins, Conf Record, and Common Opponents, and I think we get the edge in Strength of Victory. Im not positive though, we are amost .100 up on GB right now, but the Jets win this week will hurt it alot. A Seahawks and Cardinals wins should bring it back up while the Packers playing the Panthers should do enough to keep them below us.

In short, unless both the Saints and Packers fall apart, we arent getting that #1 seed

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7 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

If the most likely path for a 3-way 12-4 tie is the Pack dropping a game to Tennessee and th Saints losing this week to the Chiefs, then I dont think we can get there.

The next 3 way tie breaker after Conference record (we would all be 10-2) is Games vs Common Opponents, and unfortunately, it will be those 2 losses to SF that do us in. The Common Opponents are SF - PHI - CHI - TB, each team with a double in-Division Opponent. We would be 3-2, NO is 4-1, and GB is 3-1 for now with another game against the Bears in week 17.

Our most doable path to the #1 seed is ending up in a tie with just the Packers (NO looses to the Chiefs and then drops another to MIN with Brees rusty in his comeback) and that the Packers drop one more, but not to the Titans, but to the Bears in Week 17. That would have us tied in Wins, Conf Record, and Common Opponents, and I think we get the edge in Strength of Victory. Im not positive though, we are amost .100 up on GB right now, but the Jets win this week will hurt it alot. A Seahawks and Cardinals wins should bring it back up while the Packers playing the Panthers should do enough to keep them below us.

In short, unless both the Saints and Packers fall apart, we arent getting that #1 seed

I read the Saint and Packers loss would have to be a conference game. Haven’t looked much into it yet but that thought is out there.

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Just now, BStanRamFan said:

I dont think the door is wide open. NOLA has to lose 3 of the next 4. Not happening. I want to lose the division and get the 5 seed so we can play the winner of the NFC East. I don't want Brady in round 1.

Only three games less and screw being a WC and having to travel every week. Bring on the Bucs if that’s who we get as NFCW champs.

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1 minute ago, NVRamsFan said:

I read the Saint and Packers loss would have to be a conference game. Haven’t looked much into it yet but that thought is out there.

Yea that is true, I didnt realize that I predicted both to get another conference loss. 

But my first breakdown still stands, if they lose to the Titans and Chiefs, we lose on the Common Opponents

We need to root for the Vikings and Bears basically

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4 minutes ago, NVRamsFan said:

Only three games less and screw being a WC and having to travel every week. Bring on the Bucs if that’s who we get as NFCW champs.

Travel doesnt appear to bother this team and theres no home field advantage without fans. I want no part of playoff Tom and that run defense.  Give me the division we swept lol 

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20 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

Travel doesnt appear to bother this team and theres no home field advantage without fans. I want no part of playoff Tom and that run defense.  Give me the division we swept lol 

You mean the hottest division in football right now? 

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41 minutes ago, NYRamsFan88 said:

I’d rather play Tampa than to see any of those NFC East defenses, especially Washington...

You're crazy. I'd much rather play Washington than Tampa and Brady. We already beat the snot out of Washington. But I'd still rather win the division than lose it.

1 hour ago, BStanRamFan said:

I dont think the door is wide open. NOLA has to lose 3 of the next 4. Not happening. I want to lose the division and get the 5 seed so we can play the winner of the NFC East. I don't want Brady in round 1.

NO only has to lose two of three. They already dropped the game to Philly.

Edited by jrry32
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6 hours ago, NVRamsFan said:

You mean the hottest division in football right now? 

Dumpster fires tend to be hot in the winter. They're still easily the worst division in football regardless of a few random wins. 

Winning the division makes for cool t-shirts and hats, but strategically the getting out of the first round is easier for us as a WC. All I care about is winning the ring. Plus if we intentionally lose the last game by sitting starters, people will know who the real winner of the division was any way. 

Redskins/Giants/Philly or TB? I don't think that's even a question on a neutral field. 

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