2018 NFL Draft Prospects - picks and draft board pg 1

[flyingmonkey30]

4 hours ago, Dallas94Ware said:

I have spent a large portion of my day off today doing  two things -

Waiting for the Destiny 2 servers to come back online

and watching Sam Darnold tape

I dont see what so many see on Darnold. I see a kid with a lot of mental and physical toughness (which is a huge factor on NFL success imo, and in the opinion of Steve Young whos 3 qualities to look for are Physically tough, mentally tough, and the ability to trust them). But I do not see too much else.

He has a decent touch on his throw, decent placement and accuracy. Fairly good mechanics that wont need much fine tuning either.

Can definitely make hard throws - deep outs, posts between the safeties, curls against man coverage, etc.

But where is the stand out qualities that you want in a top QB pick?

Footwork leaves him in prime position to drive the ball into tight holes, but he misses often. His placement is well above average, yet he doesnt often lead his target with much success. A lot of his deep throws are won solely on his receivers abilities and not so much on his ability to place a deep throw where his man can win it uncontested.

When running double cross pass concepts, he frequently struggles to make a quick and decisive throw. He holds the ball and looks like he doubts himself for a moment. He makes this same hesitation on hi lo reads and in out options. Sure, you can train this out of him, but this isnt something you see of top QB selections who succeed early.

He does not trust his pocket either. He stands tall and delivers, but rushes his throw when the pocket grows sloppy. In the NFL this often translates into turnovers - ask Luck and Bortles who both struggled with this in college and again in the NFL. In college it was not costly because corners are slower are talent levels are lower, but in the NFL it is turnover city.

He can really arch his throw to the second level, but takes too much off on those throws. In the NFL where many linebackers can run and jump like college safeties, this isnt going to end well.

There are qualities in Darnold you want to see in a QB. Absolutelty. But I do not see a guy worth tanking for. Too many hurdles to overcome and things to drill him out of for me to be sold on him as the next big thing pocket passer. I see more Sam Bradford here than Peyton Manning. Bradford has had a decent little career for himself and is no slouch, but Im betting if the Rams could have a do over they would not have selected him first overall.

I definitely am not on the "Darnold is the best QB prospect since Luck" bandwagon, but I do think you're selling him short a bit. I think his poise is his best asset for sure, as you pointed out. I also do agree though that he doesn't have a particularly special arm. His anticipation and ball placement are top notch, which helps when you have the windup he has. I think the race for the first pick is closer than people think, between Darnold, Rosen, even Lamar Jackson could work his way into the conversation. Not to mention non-QB's as well.

[WizardHawk]

8 minutes ago, flyingmonkey30 said:

I definitely am not on the "Darnold is the best QB prospect since Luck" bandwagon, but I do think you're selling him short a bit. I think his poise is his best asset for sure, as you pointed out. I also do agree though that he doesn't have a particularly special arm. His anticipation and ball placement are top notch, which helps when you have the windup he has. I think the race for the first pick is closer than people think, between Darnold, Rosen, even Lamar Jackson could work his way into the conversation. Not to mention non-QB's as well.

I'd add Mason Rudolph to that list. 

[Dallas94Ware]

1 minute ago, flyingmonkey30 said:

I definitely am not on the "Darnold is the best QB prospect since Luck" bandwagon, but I do think you're selling him short a bit. I think his poise is his best asset for sure, as you pointed out. I also do agree though that he doesn't have a particularly special arm. His anticipation and ball placement are top notch, which helps when you have the windup he has. I think the race for the first pick is closer than people think, between Darnold, Rosen, even Lamar Jackson could work his way into the conversation. Not to mention non-QB's as well.

Rosen is my QB to watch. He doesnt have the ice cold poise of Darnold but he brings more to the table.He has the accuracy - not just ball placement but tight window accuracy - to make tough throws, and he doesnt toss up contested balls but rather fits the ball in the proper lane for the receiver to make his catch rather than fight for the catch.

He also has the in-the-pocket mobility to slide, slip and evade without rushing the throw. That takes confidence in your pocket and is a hard quality to find in the NCAA. Darnold does not have the nimble footwork to do much more than step up, step back or drive a rushed throw.

I also like Rosen's ability to keep accurate on the move. Underrated QB asset. All ncaa qbs throw on the run or outside the pocket. But in the NFL you have to do it without losing velocity or accuracy. Rosen can do that.

I do not however, see the poise and mental, physical toughness qualities on the level as Darnold. 

But i agree the race is tighter than most think it to be.

Also, I didnt think Luck was that great either. All his tendencies and shortcomings plague him regularly in the NFL as i predicted. If the receivers can turn out lots of YAC or win a easy release and get deep, Luck is money. But when asked to do more, he falters. 

Eli Manning, Sam Bradford and Sam Darnold alk share these traits, in their poise, icey blood under pressure, and mental toughness with a lack of standout traits. So im notnsaying Darnold cant be a good longterm answer. But if people are expecting him to be some Aaron Rodgers Drw Brees Peyton Manning 40td 9int 5000 yard guy, they need to seriously taper their expectations.

[flyingmonkey30]

We need a safety badly.

[resilient part 2]

1 hour ago, Dallas94Ware said:

Vaccaro is not much different from Barry Church, and we let him walk. You think we would trade for a player with slightly better cover skills who provides the same role?

I am not saying we would/should, just noting Vacarro made a big play which may have raised his stock a bit on the trade block.

[Texas_OutLaw7]

55 minutes ago, flyingmonkey30 said:

We need a safety badly.

Before all things, a pass-rush

[Dallas94Ware]

5 minutes ago, Texas_OutLaw7 said:

Before all things, a pass-rush

We have a first round safety and three late round picks at the other spot. Cant keep wasting high picks on a low value position. Someone has to.step up and moreover the pass rush needs to help out whoever is the second safety.

[resilient part 2]

30 minutes ago, Texas_OutLaw7 said:

Before all things, a pass-rush

I believe our pass rush will come around this year. Not saying a DE shouldn't be a priority though.

[resilient part 2]

Ok as you can see, I like bumping this up after every game. Like stock, players positions can go up or down. But possible for the first time in forever I may not consider DE/DT with our top need. D Law is playing like he wants JJ Watt money and we have a young (did he play) Taco at the opposite end. I still am a believer in D Irving. and M Collins at the least is very good. Now if a stud at DE/DT is still there for us, of course then go for them. But truth be told, despite B Butler's big game/catches tonight, we really need a stud WR IMO. Dez is still good but I just don't see him being the type to dominate any more. T Williams and Butler appear to be OK. But a true stud (speed burner) WR to team up with Dez will just open up everything. Especially for Zeke and the rest of the offense.

Defensively Dallas needs a true center fielder/play-making safety IMO. While I like some of our young guys, particularly J Lewis, a 'stud' playmaking hawk at safety would/should wonders for the defense, I believe. 

thoughts???

[WizardHawk]

1 minute ago, resilient part 2 said:

Ok as you can see, I like bumping this up after every game. Like stock, players positions can go up or down. But possible for the first time in forever I may not consider DE/DT with our top need. D Law is playing like he wants JJ Watt money and we have a young (did he play) Taco at the opposite end. I still am a believer in D Irving. and M Collins at the least is very good. Now if a stud at DE/DT is still there for us, of course then go for them. But truth be told, despite B Butler's big game/catches tonight, we really need a stud WR IMO. Dez is still good but I just don't see him being the type to dominate any more. T Williams and Butler appear to be OK. But a true stud (speed burner) WR to team up with Dez will just open up everything. Especially for Zeke and the rest of the offense.

Defensively Dallas needs a true center fielder/play-making safety IMO. While I like some of our young guys, particularly J Lewis, a 'stud' playmaking hawk at safety would/should wonders for the defense, I believe. 

thoughts???

I think before we jump on needing a CF safety, we need to see more of Woods. He is progressing very nicely.

[D82]

Depending on where we end up picking...I don't really see a CF-type safety outside of James and Fitzpatrick in next years draft.

[Dallas94Ware]

I dont think Lawrence gets his payday in Dallas. Hes going to want too much and i dont see the team ponying up capstrapping level moneh for someone whos had one good year. Not when they have an all pro OL, a young star QB, a quality DB and a good ball seeking LBer due for money in the next couple years. 15mil/yr+  on a possible one hit wonder at DE would make it hard to keep all of Martin, Dak, Byron, Hitchens (a question mark already) and rework/extend guys in the next group beyond them.

[Calvert28]

8 hours ago, Dallas94Ware said:

I dont think Lawrence gets his payday in Dallas. Hes going to want too much and i dont see the team ponying up capstrapping level moneh for someone whos had one good year. Not when they have an all pro OL, a young star QB, a quality DB and a good ball seeking LBer due for money in the next couple years. 15mil/yr+  on a possible one hit wonder at DE would make it hard to keep all of Martin, Dak, Byron, Hitchens (a question mark already) and rework/extend guys in the next group beyond them.

I agree, we would probably let Lawrence go if he demands an insane contract on one year of production.

[resilient part 2]

3 hours ago, Calvert28 said:

I agree, we would probably let Lawrence go if he demands an insane contract on one year of production.

not agreeing or disagreeing, BUT playing devil's advocate, how long have we waited for a stud DE (since prime Ware) and we let D-Law go? We should have good cap space coming. Don't want to digress the defense. At this point we need more studs, not less. 

[matt79511]

I think Lawrence gets tagged if he keeps this up. I mean the guy is on pace for 35 sacks. Obviously that's not going to happen, but anywhere in the 12-15 range or better and I can't see us just letting him walk for a comp pick when we haven't had an edge rusher with that many sacks since D-Ware in 2011.

Of course, the franchise tag for DEs is gonna be close to $17M next year, so that's a huge bullet to bite if he gets hurt/regresses again next year. But I think that's the move.