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2021 Free Agency


Humble_Beast

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15 minutes ago, oakdb36 said:

It's very likely they won't let him leave but that'd probably mean they won't re-sign Tomlinson and that's another guy we should target. They don't fill the same role at all but we could use either one.

Yes... I’ve always said LW is my dream FA signing but with the caveat that I realize he’s likely franchise tag and then extended in time.  That said Tomlinson would almost have to be available on the FA market.  
 

im not really sure what Tomlinson will get.  He’s more of a Run stuffer than rusher but is capable of playing all over the DL.  I’m not pigeonholing him as a NT but I don’t see him as being an 3T with pass rushing skills we need/dream of.  That said... i see him more as a NT who plays 3 downs and thus would be an upgrade over Hankins, who’d we would then let walk.  I could see Tomlinson getting 12-13m (‘20 FA class: Hargrove- 13m apy, Jarran Reed 11.5m apy).  Clearly Tomlinson is an upgrade with better versatility but given the cost difference to Hankins (who I assume gets under 7m) idk if that’s the best route.  I guess signing Tomlinson to go with drafting a DT in rounds 1-2 (#1 choice would be Barmore in round 1, hopefully with a slight trade down) wouldn’t be a bad overall DT combo at all.  It’s just not my #1 choice at the moment.  However, I’m being overly optimistic and do realize that Tomlinson/Baremore option is actually very achievable).  Those two could even play the big DE 5 tech role that Bradley had in Red Bryant in Seattle and Jax.  However, he seemed to move SH from that a bit with Chargers.  Not sure if that was by design or adaptation to their roster.  I do think Ferrell could excel in the big base LDE 5 tech role though too.

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Tomlinson is not flashy but he does all the dirty work. Never missed a game and started since day 1. Very consistent season to season. Very good run defender taking on double teams.

My dream scenario is finding a way to trade for Jonathan Allen and signing Tomlinson. I think Washington could listen to offers for Allen will all the talent they've put together on their dline. They need a QB and they're picking a bit late. Could need ammo to trade up.

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20 minutes ago, Humble_Beast said:

Wish we would have traded for Williams when we had the chance and the draft assets. 

Yeah, the Giants only gave up 3rd/5th round picks for him. So we essentially could've traded Tanner Muse and Amik Robertson for Leonard Williams and didn't, lol. 

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11 minutes ago, oakdb36 said:

Tomlinson is not flashy but he does all the dirty work. Never missed a game and started since day 1. Very consistent season to season. Very good run defender taking on double teams.

My dream scenario is finding a way to trade for Jonathan Allen and signing Tomlinson. I think Washington could listen to offers for Allen will all the talent they've put together on their dline. They need a QB and they're picking a bit late. Could need ammo to trade up.

Sign me up instantly did that option!  WhAt down you think Tomlinson costs in FA and Allen costs in trade?  Is Allen rumored to be on market?

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4 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

Sign me up instantly did that option!  WhAt down you think Tomlinson costs in FA and Allen costs in trade?  Is Allen rumored to be on market?

I think the range you gave for Tomlinson earlier is probably correct. As for how much Allen could cost in a trade, i'm not really sure. He's very good but no incredible production in terms of sacks. I'd guess 2nd rd value. And there's no rumor that i'm aware of. Just looking at the situation in Washington and the fact that he'll be playing on his 5th year option in 2021. He's a player they can get a good return on and it would have to be done this offseason.

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16 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

People put so much weight into draft capital, it's so over valued, especially with how poorly we've drafted. 

Been saying this forever. If you don't have a top 5-10 pick and chance to land one of those caliber players, the draft picks are a crap shoot.

Teams like the Rams get it. Traded 2 firsts for Ramsey a lock down corner in his prime and a cornerstone of their top rated defense.

Colts - traded pick 13 for an all-pro DT (Buckner) who immediately fortified their front 7 and elevated their defense 

Bills - traded 22 for Diggs, a proven WR who helped launch Josh Allen into MVP territory

The ability to identify these players and get this talent on your side is why these teams excel

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11 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Been saying this forever. If you don't have a top 5-10 pick and chance to land one of those caliber players, the draft picks are a crap shoot.

Teams like the Rams get it. Traded 2 firsts for Ramsey a lock down corner in his prime and a cornerstone of their top rated defense.

Colts - traded pick 13 for an all-pro DT (Buckner) who immediately fortified their front 7 and elevated their defense 

Bills - traded 22 for Diggs, a proven WR who helped launch Josh Allen into MVP territory

The ability to identify these players and get this talent on your side is why these teams excel

I agree. I thought we should of flipped one of those 1st round picks in the Mack/ Cooper trade for an established high end player

Thats one thing I miss about Al Davis. He was never afraid to trade a draft pick for a premium player. Bringing on "draft specialist" Mike Mayock as GM made us over rely on the draft. 

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6 hours ago, NYRaider said:

People put so much weight into draft capital, it's so over valued, especially with how poorly we've drafted. 

That’s obviously a very broad statement... thus there’s room to agree and disagree.

obviously if you can land a talent like LW for a 3+5 it’s absolutely worth it.  All to often we hear people say “I’d only give up  5th for (proven starter)” and that’s definitely overvaluing the draft picks.  Often these players have lower cap numbers if traded for (due to SB‘s from old team) or the contract they signed a few years ago is now mildly to moderately under the market value for a UFA.  They see FAs as being free and that’s not true.  You often have to overpay FAs (aka our bid for them) To sign for them.  And most importantly these veterans often provide way more production then the draft pick(s) would.

Where I disagree is if you draft well in the mid rounds, 3-5 mainly, you can get incredible values.  For instance.... Renfrow would be getting 7-9m on the FA market but his rookie contract is 4 years for 3.3M.  The value of having mid round picks become starters or key reserves on 4 year dirt cheap deals is very substantial, because it allows you to spend that cap space elsewhere.  Teams that hit 2-3 years in a row in rounds 3-5 end having the money to bring in talent in FA, resign their previous draftees, etc.

This is why I think we should trade down and get more mid round picks.  If I was a GM I’d try and get an extra pick or more in rounds 3-5 every year. If you can hit often and find some good starters or even just find solid depth for dirt cheap it would allow you to be able to afford to hit FA with lots of cash and go after some top talent.

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3 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

obviously if you can land a talent like LW for a 3+5 it’s absolutely worth it.  

Where I disagree is if you draft well in the mid rounds, 3-5 mainly, you can get incredible values.  

We had a chance to buy low on Leonard Williams and passed on it and wasted those picks on guys that made zero impact for us this year. With a guy like that it's worth giving up mid-round picks to acquire him, low risk/high reward.

And I agree, I think one of the main factors that seperates good teams from bad teams is their ability to identify talent later in the draft. As you said if you can find guys that fit your system that can develop into starters early on you get incredible value. That was the main factor in Reggie McKenzie's down fall as our GM and why we had to blow the roster up. He missed on almost every pick rounds 2-7 with the exception of a few guys like Carr and Jackson. Because of that we lacked depth and starting caliber players across the roster on cheap deals and couldn't afford to pay Carr, Mack, and Cooper because we had holes everywhere else. 

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10 hours ago, big_palooka said:

Been saying this forever. If you don't have a top 5-10 pick and chance to land one of those caliber players, the draft picks are a crap shoot.

Even last year there were rumors that we could've acquired Yannick Ngakoue for the 19th pick and passed on the deal so we could draft Arnette. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but you take a pass rusher like Yannick over a player like Arnette 7 days of the week and twice on Sunday. 

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