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Week 15 GDT - Broncos vs. Bills


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As much as CAR was a good matchup, other than their run D, BUF poses major problems for us, and are rightfully a 6-6.5 pt favorite.

Pass game vs. our secondary - it's not just Stefon Diggs (who's having an All-Pro season), the Bills can beat you 4-5x in their pass game.  They've got the possession/separation guy in Diggs, who's also good enough to beat you vertically.   They've got the slot wizard in Beasley.  Their 3rd WR, Geremy Davis, poses huge problems with his box-out / high-point abilities (raw in route running, but he's a rookie).   And yes, they've found a perfect role for our ex-Bronco, Isiah Henderson, in the gadget, deep-ball guy.    Against our regular secondary, it would be a challenge - against our current corps, it's a massive problem.

Josh Allen buying time - this is the part that compounds the above problem.   Allen's elusiveness and his generational arm talent (Mahomes - like in that regard) creates more time and space for the O that our pass rush would normally challenge vs. lesser QB's.   Allen's decision-making and accuracy wobbles still can pop up, but he's nowhere near the raw, unfinished and mistake-prone guy from even the start of last season.

Their pass D complexity vs. Lock's decision-making - CAR's D was easy to beat - no pressure, and a lot of soft coverage.    BUF has trouble generating pressure, but their coverage schemes are excellent.   They offer different looks, and everyone plays their zone assignments so well, it's confusing to QB's who normally excel at making reads.   This is a major test for Lock -  struggles I'd expect, and if he shows something here, that's real progress IMO.  

The one area we can win - our run O vs. their run D.   It's the one matchup in our favor.  But to do that, we have to limit their O's scoring, and their pass D can't make big plays vs. Lock.   The objective view says neither is likely, so both is even more unlikely - hence the 6-6.5 dog spread at home.    Unlike some matchups, though, this one is very much earned.    Still, even with a spread that big, the improbable can always happen (especially if we somehow came out ahead in the TO matchup, always the equalizer) - but those are the matchups to watch for.

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2 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

No two ways about it - this is the biggest game of Lock’s career. Big stage against a good team everyone is watching, and he’ll likely need to have a big night or at least a very efficient one for the Broncos to win. 

I think if he has another multi pick dud, you just cant roll with him next year. Have to bring in someone. Like Stafford.

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4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

And yes, they've found a perfect role for our ex-Bronco, Isiah Henderson, in the gadget, deep-ball guy.

You've mixed two Bronco busts here - Isiah McKenzie and Carlos Henderson 😂

Expecting to see a lot of zone coverage. Can't have Allen going nuts with his legs against man coverage, i.e when defenders turn their backs.

Make him cut us up on long drives. Not saying he can't, but I'd sooner than that rather than giving him easy chunk plays with his legs.

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3 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

You've mixed two Bronco busts here - Isiah McKenzie and Carlos Henderson 😂

Expecting to see a lot of zone coverage. Can't have Allen going nuts with his legs against man coverage, i.e when defenders turn their backs.

Make him cut us up on long drives. Not saying he can't, but I'd sooner than that rather than giving him easy chunk plays with his legs.

To be fair I've made that mistake more than once - the 2 players have exactly the same skill sets, minus one being a terrible Day 2 pick, and the other going where he should have.    Best to forget that draft altogether lol...

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I see us getting worked. 

We’ve made strides but the Bills are so balanced, so well-coached and have an MVP candidate at QB. Bills win 27-13.

I do delight, however, in the fact that I’ve been proven right about Josh Allen. No one here wanted him and, while I did approve of the Chubb pick, I think I was one of but a few here who would have approved of taking Allen instead. 

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1 hour ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I see us getting worked. 

We’ve made strides but the Bills are so balanced, so well-coached and have an MVP candidate at QB. Bills win 27-13.

I do delight, however, in the fact that I’ve been proven right about Josh Allen. No one here wanted him and, while I did approve of the Chubb pick, I think I was one of but a few here who would have approved of taking Allen instead. 

I was one that wanted him.  He’s probably the most physically gifted QB ever, or is at the very least in the top 4-5 conversation.

However, Allen is still fully capable of having dud games.  While his accuracy has significantly improved and he’s no doubt a franchise QB, he has quarters/halves, where he can’t hit the broad side of a barn.  Even with a depleted secondary and defense overall, I expect Fangio to give Allen problems.  

I don’t think Denver wins unless Lock plays another flawless game, but I think this is closer than expected. 

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3 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I do delight, however, in the fact that I’ve been proven right about Josh Allen. No one here wanted him and, while I did approve of the Chubb pick, I think I was one of but a few here who would have approved of taking Allen instead. 

I have to give you credit. You were one of the few who had him ranked so high on your final big board

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/9664-your-first-round-big-board/

 

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8 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I see us getting worked. 

We’ve made strides but the Bills are so balanced, so well-coached and have an MVP candidate at QB. Bills win 27-13.

I do delight, however, in the fact that I’ve been proven right about Josh Allen. No one here wanted him and, while I did approve of the Chubb pick, I think I was one of but a few here who would have approved of taking Allen instead. 

Are you kidding?  I was ready to get an Uber for him to drive him from Laramie to Denver.

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12 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I see us getting worked. 

We’ve made strides but the Bills are so balanced, so well-coached and have an MVP candidate at QB. Bills win 27-13.

I do delight, however, in the fact that I’ve been proven right about Josh Allen. No one here wanted him and, while I did approve of the Chubb pick, I think I was one of but a few here who would have approved of taking Allen instead. 

It's kinda funny/ironic too because you'd think Josh Allen is the exact QB John Elway would've wanted to go for. Big, strong, rocket arm, mobile, has a cocky-ness to him. Between Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Flacco and Lock sure seemed that way but hindsight is 20/20. Allen was a risk that played out well for the Bills FO. 

Denver has been playing pretty solid as of late so this game makes me a little nervous; especially after (2) big primetime wins the last (2) weeks vs. SF and PITT. TBH I see it either being a 1 score game to the end, or a rout.

Reasons for a close game : Denver is frisky and could be a trap game, the defense and Lock have been playing better, in Denver, let down game after a nice 1-2 month stretch for Buffalo

Reasons for a rout : if the Bills win this game they win the AFC East for the 1st time since 1995, Denver has only 3 CBs on the active roster & the bills play 4 WR sets pretty much all the time so a recipe for disaster for the DEN secondary.

Either way hopefully it's an entertaining and injury free game! 

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