Texans vs Colts comparison - Aikman Efficiency ratings

[coffeedrinker]

I am a big fan of the Aikman Efficiency Rating Index.  Over the years it has proven to be an accurate gauge of a teams effectiveness.  And when I used to do a company pool where you pick the winner of each game, I would use the AER to fill out the my sheet and while I didn't win every week, I was just about always in the top 4 (out of about 25) and at the end of the season I usually won the prize for most correct picks on the season.  Not bragging(well maybe a little) but mainly just explaining why I like AER and it's proven to be accurate.

Now, some things that AER does not factor in are: Special teams and Turnovers.  Turnovers factors into ratings negatively for the offense and positively for the defense.

So, after week 14 here are the AER ratings

team ranking (NFL Average)

Colts Offense: 87.9 (85.5)

Colts Defense: 69.2 (64.4)

Colts Total 157.1 (149.9)

Houston Offense 84.8(85.5)

Houston Defense 55.1 (64.4)

Houston total 139.9 (149.9)

 

So just looking at the numbers, this should be a pretty easy win for the Colts.  But this doesn't tell the entire story.  I also look at trending

After week 13

Colts were 86.0, 69.3

Houston 86.4, 56.1

NFL Ave week 13 85.7, 64.2

 

Week 12

Colts 85.9 68.8

Houston 87.4, 55.4

NFL Ave week 12 85.8, 64.0

 

So looking at that, the Colts have been trending up on offense and trending down (slightly) on defense, although they are above the NFL average all three weeks.

Houston on the other hand have been trending down on both offense and defense.  Of offense, Houston has gone from being above the NFL average in week 12 and 13 to below the NFL average after week 14.  Houston's D has been pretty bad all season and, as mentioned, trending further down.

Since Indy's offense does not go against Houston's offense it doesn't do any good to do a simple subtraction of totals.  So for Colts O vs Houston D I take the (Colts offense - NFL average) - (Houston D - NFL average).  So, we get (87.9-85.5)-(55.1-66.4) = 2.4-(-11.3) = 13.7 - So the Colts O is significantly better than the Houston D

Then I do the reverse Colts D vs Houston O (69.2-64.4)-(84.8-85.5) = 4.8-(-0.7) = 5.5.  So the Colts D is better than the Houston offense.

So if this were the football pool, I would pick the Colts, although I would take into account things like, division rival, Colts D struggling a bit more when facing a QB like Watson (someone that can run as well as throw from the pocket.

So my prediction, assuming standard special teams play and not a turn over run by either team.  The Colts should win.  And they will probably win by at least 14.

[Wyld Stallyns]

We should win this one but it will still be a close game up until the end. And by end I mean middle of the 4th quarter. 

I was looking at the website and I feel like if we ignored the first half of every game this year we’d be the #1 defense and #1 “efficient” defense 😂

[Warhorse]

This looks to be a winnable game, but I think turnovers may play a big part. Let's hope that is us creating the turnovers. I would hope for our defense to not get carved when Watson gets out of the pocket. 

I think our run game should have a bigger effect this time. We know how TY does against them, and PR and TY are getting their relationship on. Do we have a big TE game this weekend? That is what I am hoping for. 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Warhorse