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Week 15 - Rams vs Jets


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38 minutes ago, rocky_rams said:

if stats matter then Drew Brees is the best QB of all time. But the eyeball test will tell you different. 
 

stats don’t measure IQ and intangibles. 

I also want to address this. You're ignoring my point. It's not about the stats proving Goff is Manning. It's about statistical trends in their respective careers. The reason I pointed to YPC and completion percentage is because Goff and Manning have very similar career trends in that regard. Let's take a look:

Manning

Years 2-4: 62.4% & 12.3 YPC

Year 5: 66.3% & 10.7 YPC

Goff

Years 2-4: 63.3% & 12.5 YPC

Year 5: 68.0% & 10.7 YPC

Why do I think this is significant? Peyton Manning entered his prime in Year 6. His completion percentage increased again by a small amount that year and his YPC also increased. We'll have to wait for next year to see what Goff does, but what's significant to me is that in Year 5, Manning started to see the value of the short passing game. I think Jared is seeing the same thing this year. He still makes mistakes (as young QBs do), but he feels less pressure to push the ball down the field. That's growth, even if the overall numbers may not necessarily show it.

As for Kurt Warner, I respect his opinion, but he doesn't have a crystal ball. He gets it wrong sometimes. He's guessing. There's a very weird trend with pocket passers where they tend to have a year in the 27 years old to 30 years old range where they suddenly "get it" and are consistently good/great for the rest of their careers (until they decline enough). Prior to that point, there's a lot of volatility from year to year.

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4 hours ago, jrry32 said:

I also want to address this. You're ignoring my point. It's not about the stats proving Goff is Manning. It's about statistical trends in their respective careers. The reason I pointed to YPC and completion percentage is because Goff and Manning have very similar career trends in that regard. Let's take a look:

Manning

Years 2-4: 62.4% & 12.3 YPC

Year 5: 66.3% & 10.7 YPC

Goff

Years 2-4: 63.3% & 12.5 YPC

Year 5: 68.0% & 10.7 YPC

Why do I think this is significant? Peyton Manning entered his prime in Year 6. His completion percentage increased again by a small amount that year and his YPC also increased. We'll have to wait for next year to see what Goff does, but what's significant to me is that in Year 5, Manning started to see the value of the short passing game. I think Jared is seeing the same thing this year. He still makes mistakes (as young QBs do), but he feels less pressure to push the ball down the field. That's growth, even if the overall numbers may not necessarily show it.

As for Kurt Warner, I respect his opinion, but he doesn't have a crystal ball. He gets it wrong sometimes. He's guessing. There's a very weird trend with pocket passers where they tend to have a year in the 27 years old to 30 years old range where they suddenly "get it" and are consistently good/great for the rest of their careers (until they decline enough). Prior to that point, there's a lot of volatility from year to year.

So if Goff has a similar year next year (year 6) to what he has this year and last year statistically, then what will be your assessment of him?

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2 minutes ago, rocky_rams said:

So if Goff has a similar year next year (year 6) to what he has this year and last year statistically, then what will be your assessment of him?

I'll be disappointed, but it'll depend on the reason for the numbers. But I don't really give a crap about "what ifs." Goff is going to start next year. We'll see what he does. However, as I just told you, it's 27 to 30 years old. Goff is only 26. Next year is when the window typically opens. But there's no guarantee it'll be the year his prime starts. If he hasn't progressed by 30, that'll tell me it's unlikely he ever does.

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1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

I'll be disappointed, but it'll depend on the reason for the numbers. But I don't really give a crap about "what ifs." Goff is going to start next year. We'll see what he does. However, as I just told you, it's 27 to 30 years old. Goff is only 26. Next year is when the window typically opens. But there's no guarantee it'll be the year his prime starts. If he hasn't progressed by 30, that'll tell me it's unlikely he ever does.

Fair point I guess but the NFL moves so fast now and teams move on from players a lot faster than before. 
 

also from Kurt Warner recently:  

“When the Rams run the football and play-action, they’re really good, Jared Goff is really good in that type of scenario. When they fall behind and they have to drop-back throw, when they have to spread it out and he’s got to drop back and read the defense and pick a team apart, that is where this team and that is where Jared Goff struggles.”

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4 minutes ago, rocky_rams said:

Fair point I guess but the NFL moves so fast now and teams move on from players a lot faster than before. 
 

also from Kurt Warner recently:  

“When the Rams run the football and play-action, they’re really good, Jared Goff is really good in that type of scenario. When they fall behind and they have to drop-back throw, when they have to spread it out and he’s got to drop back and read the defense and pick a team apart, that is where this team and that is where Jared Goff struggles.”

That's true about him in the present. But that doesn't mean it'll be true about him in the future.

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1 minute ago, rocky_rams said:

Hope you’re right. I really like Goff and hope he becomes top 10.  but I’m also realistic with myself

That might be your reality, but it isn't mine. Goff is such an exceptional thrower when he's playing well. I believe he'll "get it" mentally like so many other pocket passers have. Like many of those guys, he's inconsistent in that regard at this stage.

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