as of now who is your pick at 19

[e16bball]

18 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Anyone can choose whatever metric they want to make a point they want to make.

Okay. If that’s true, choose your metric to make the point that the latter half of the 1st round has been a reliable place to find a franchise QB in the the last decade plus.

[e16bball]

18 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Foles & Wilson won Super Bowls as 3rd round picks, Kirk Cousins in the same 2012 draft was a 4th round pick and was one of the most consistent/best QBs in Washington history and along w/ the WRs & Reed carried an inconsistent running game and an awful defense to the playoffs in 2015 & two straight winning seasons then, he went to Minnesota and won a playoff game on the road against a Hall of Fame QB in one of the hardest places to play in the NFL. 

See what I did there? And I would say that Kyle Trask compares to a Nick Foles type QB and Mac Jones compares to  a Cousins/ Dalton type QB.

Okay. Now we’re including the entire draft, I see, not just guys who are fringe 1st rounders. Sorta shifting away from the point here, but let’s roll with it. After the first half of the 1st round, the entire rest of the draft over the course of the last 15 drafts has produced the following franchise type QBs:

Russell Wilson

Lamar Jackson

Dak Prescott

Kirk Cousins

Joe Flacco

Derek Carr

Andy Dalton

Teddy Bridgewater (maybe?)

Colin Kaepernick (kinda?)

Nick Foles (sorta?)

Jimmy Garoppolo (if you squint really hard?)

Tyrod Taylor (now we’re really reaching)

So there we have it. Over the last 15 years, we’ve come up with 7 legit franchise QBs outside of the top half of the 1st round. And honestly, in terms of high-end upside, I think only 3 of those guys have ever cracked the top 10 QB list at any point in their career.

So that’s 7 franchise QBs, out of 3600 picks, over the course of 15 years. Less than one every other draft. There have been 144 QBs selected after the top half of the 1st round in those 15 years, and 7 of them turned out to be legit franchise QBs. For those keeping score at home, that’s 4.86%. 

Perhaps I’m unfairly twisting the narrative again somehow — because apparently I have some personal stake in whether unwanted QBs turn out well, rather than just a belief, based on the facts, that drafting QBs that the entire rest of the league decides to pass on very rarely works out. But to me, it’s pretty cut and dried.

[e16bball]

19 hours ago, lavar703 said:

While this might seem crazy and just outright overkill what do you do if Rousseau is there when we pick? At that point in the draft can you realistically pass on him? Might seem dumb considering the resources poured into the DL already but man would it be nice to throw him in that rotation. We might lose Kerrigan and Anderson so who knows lol

I’m not sold on Rousseau as a prospect, so it would be a pretty hard pass for me. Even if I was, though, he’d have to be absolutely head and shoulders over all the other guys on the board. Just don’t think you can use a pick that high on a guy you expect to be a backup.

They absolutely do need to add another pass-rusher, though. I agree with you that Kerrigan and Anderson are both probably goners. Both will probably want something more than just a shot at the table scraps behind Young and Sweat. Would love to look that direction with a lower-end FA and/or a 3rd or 4th rounder. Both might be the right call, depending on how high they are on JSW’s potential as a legit rotational DE.

[turtle28]

@e16bball My point wasn’t about including the entire draft, my point was that I could create a fictional metric to make my point just like you could.

[ovfd55]

Honestly 19 is a movement Slot to me none  of the top 4 pass catchers should be there,Parsons and top couple Oline and CBs will be gone.So we should either move up and grab a slipping player we love of move back and pick up some more picks the grab one of the 2nd teir players

[turtle28]

13 hours ago, e16bball said:

I’m not sold on Rousseau as a prospect, so it would be a pretty hard pass for me. Even if I was, though, he’d have to be absolutely head and shoulders over all the other guys on the board. Just don’t think you can use a pick that high on a guy you expect to be a backup.

They absolutely do need to add another pass-rusher, though. I agree with you that Kerrigan and Anderson are both probably goners. Both will probably want something more than just a shot at the table scraps behind Young and Sweat. Would love to look that direction with a lower-end FA and/or a 3rd or 4th rounder. Both might be the right call, depending on how high they are on JSW’s potential as a legit rotational DE.

[mar29020]

theres always an obsession with trading down on this board. People wanted to trade out of drafting CHase young,

[PARROTHEAD]

17 minutes ago, mar29020 said:

theres always an obsession with trading down on this board. People wanted to trade out of drafting CHase young,

[turtle28]

34 minutes ago, mar29020 said:

There's always an obsession with trading down on this board. People wanted to trade out of drafting Chase Young,

Agree, I hate trading down, 10-15 years ago I loved it because I was obsessed with accumulating picks but now I realize you can find "guys" in other ways to fill out your roster. If you don't have a few super stars or at least a few stars on both sides of the ball, you'll never be better than average and the best way to get those super stars is to take the BPA when you pick, especially if you have a top 5 pick like last year. We made the right selection, Chase is one of the main reasons this season has taken a different trajectory the second half of the year along with Alex Smith being a veteran presence who is accurate and decisive at QB. 

[turtle28]

20 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said:

Trading out of the spot to take Chase Young or the Bengals trading down and passing on Burrow while retaining Andy Dalton would be as bad as trading down and passing on Lawrence this year.