Sam vs. Fields vs. Wilson

[jetjuice]

On 1/21/2021 at 3:02 PM, xrade said:

On the surface you may be correct. But you are forgetting that #2 overall is worth a lot more than any 2 FRP outside of the top 15. #2 is worth 2200 pts and the #15 pick is worth 1050 (assumption that the Jets will be around that spot next year). Total is 3250 pts. A team picking in the 20’s would need to spend 4 FRP plus more to get to 3250 pts. Also, Houston will want to select a new QB. If you were GM would you rather pick 2 or >15 to address that?

Too many people devalue the #2 overall pick when talking about Watson but overvalue it when trading down. 

To further your point, both us and Miami can offer a young QB in return as well, so HOU would not be forced to take a QB with the #2 or #3 pick (although I wouldn't want either if I were HOU, just a possibility). They could easily take a DeVonta Smith or Penei Sewell and if it doesn't work out with Darnold/Tua, take a QB with one of your multiple firsts next year. There's always the slight possibility of trading down from #2 to acquire more draft capital too, or see if a QB slips to 23 (18 if it's Miami).

For that reason, I think it'll come down to us or Miami. Teams picking in the teens really won't have the ability to put together a package comparable to what either of us can offer.

Edited January 22, 2021 by jetjuice