Week 16: Remember the Titans at Packers

[incognito_man]

18 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Divisional Round is likely (5) Tampa Bay at (1) Green Bay if you are the #1 seed.

I think it is more likely than not that GB, as the #1 seed, faces something else other than the #5 seeded Bucs in the divisional round. And certainly not likely enough to not want the first round bye. And certainly not because we'd be afraid of the faltering Bucs with an aging Tom Brady to the point where you'd prefer to NOT get a first round bye.

[BayRaider]

3 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I think it is more likely than not that GB, as the #1 seed, faces something else other than the #5 seeded Bucs in the divisional round. And certainly not likely enough to not want the first round bye. And certainly not because we'd be afraid of the faltering Bucs with an aging Tom Brady to the point where you'd prefer to NOT get a first round bye.

Disagree you wouldn’t face the #5 Bucs. Seattle likely defeats whoever is the 6th seed, and New Orleans likely defeats whoever is the 7th seed. 
 

Also, an aging Tom Brady....? He is literally having the 7th best QB season in the NFL, and his arm looks super sharp. And he looked solid against Green Bay last time. 
 

 

[squire12]

6 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Disagree you wouldn’t face the #5 Bucs. Seattle likely defeats whoever is the 6th seed, and New Orleans likely defeats whoever is the 7th seed. 
 

Also, an aging Tom Brady....? He is literally having the 7th best QB season in the NFL, and his arm looks super sharp. And he looked solid against Green Bay last time. 
 

 

Florida in October vs GB in January

I will take the latter and go from there

[incognito_man]

15 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Disagree you wouldn’t face the #5 Bucs

Then you are disagreeing with math.

Tampa earning the 5 seed means they win out: (0.83)*(0.75) = 62% chance they are the 5 seed (according to 538)

Tampa beating Washington is approx. 70% (I'll even round up to match the inferior ATL win percentage): (0.62)*(0.75) = 47% chance they move on as 5 seed

Chances of BOTH the 6 and 7 seeds losing are AT WORST 60% each: (0.6)*(0.6) =36% chance

So therefore, chances of #5 seed TB facing #1 seed GB in divisional is AT BEST: (0.36)*(0.47) = 17% = or 1/6.

That is not "likely"

I will put my money where my mouth is and offer you 2:1 odds on this for any amount of anything you want. You get: 5 seed TB @ 1 seed GB in divisional. I get: Anything else

Edited December 24, 2020 by incognito_man

[coachbuns]

2 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Then you are disagreeing with math.

Tampa earning the 5 seed means they win out: (0.83)*(0.75) = 62% chance they are the 5 seed (according to 538)

Tampa beating Washington is approx. 70% (I'll even round up to match the inferior ATL win percentage): (0.62)*(0.75) = 47% chance they move on as 5 seed

Chances of BOTH the 6 and 7 seeds losing are AT WORST 60% each: (0.6)*(0.6) =36% chance

So therefore, chances of #5 seed TB facing #1 seed GB in divisional is AT BEST: (0.36)*(0.47) = 17% = or 1/6.

That is not "likely"

And I thought you only knew football.  Your deciphering math skills are just as good.

[BayRaider]

2 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Then you are disagreeing with math.

Tampa earning the 5 seed means they win out: (0.83)*(0.75) = 62% chance they are the 5 seed (according to 538)

Tampa beating Washington is approx. 70% (I'll even round up to match the inferior ATL win percentage): (0.62)*(0.75) = 47% chance they move on as 5 seed

Chances of BOTH the 6 and 7 seeds losing are AT WORST 60% each: (0.6)*(0.6) =36% chance

So therefore, chances of #5 seed TB facing #1 seed GB in divisional is AT BEST: (0.36)*(0.47) = 17% = or 1/6.

That is not "likely"

Don’t really care about “math”. I don’t see TB losing to ATL at home, ATL is not a good outdoor team, don’t see them losing to Detroit who is playing probably the third worst in the NFL right now ahead of Jacksonville and New York, and don’t see them losing to Washington. 

New Orleans won’t lose to Chicago or Arizona. 
 

Seattle vs LAR would be the wildcard game and I guess that one is a coin flip, but I’d give the win to Seattle at home. 

 

[incognito_man]

1 minute ago, BayRaider said:

Don’t really care about “math”. I don’t see TB losing to ATL at home, ATL is not a good outdoor team, don’t see them losing to Detroit who is playing probably the third worst in the NFL right now ahead of Jacksonville and New York, and don’t see them losing to Washington. 

New Orleans won’t lose to Chicago or Arizona. 
 

Seattle vs LAR would be the wildcard game and I guess that one is a coin flip, but I’d give the win to Seattle at home. 

 

let's bet then!

You get: 5seed TB @ 1seed GB
I get: Every other option

Since you think it's "likely" that means 1:1 odds are fair. But I'll make it more enticing and make it 2:1 in your favor!

Name your price.

*and since you did say "if we win the #1 seed", any scenario in which we don't win the #1 seed cancels the bet

Edited December 24, 2020 by incognito_man

[incognito_man]

3 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

And I thought you only knew football.  Your deciphering math skills are just as good.

my math skills >>>>> my football knowledge

[BayRaider]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

let's bet then!

You get: 5seed TB @ 1seed GB
I get: Every other option

Since you think it's "likely" that means 1:1 odds are fair. But I'll make it more enticing and make it 2:1 in your favor!

Name your price.

*and since you did say "if we win the #1 seed", any scenario in which we don't win the #1 seed cancels the bet

Nope, cause I don’t think GB actually ends up the 1 seed. 
 

I’ll bet you TB ends up the 5 seed, or that TB beats GB in the playoffs, if you want to do either of those. 

[incognito_man]

1 minute ago, BayRaider said:

3 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

let's bet then!

You get: 5seed TB @ 1seed GB
I get: Every other option

Since you think it's "likely" that means 1:1 odds are fair. But I'll make it more enticing and make it 2:1 in your favor!

Name your price.

*and since you did say "if we win the #1 seed", any scenario in which we don't win the #1 seed cancels the bet

Nope, cause I don’t think GB actually ends up the 1 seed. 
 

I’ll bet you TB ends up the 5 seed, or that TB beats GB in the playoffs, if you want to do either of those. 

 

[incognito_man]

1 minute ago, BayRaider said:

Nope, cause I don’t think GB actually ends up the 1 seed. 
 

I’ll bet you TB ends up the 5 seed, or that TB beats GB in the playoffs, if you want to do either of those. 

also, it's weird you think that GB doesn't end up as the #1 seed (80% chance) but think it's "likely" TB beats GB as a the #5 seed in the divisional round = something like 8% chance of happening...

I'm definitely all about adding the "beats GB" to the bet if you want!

You get: 5seed TB wins against 1seed GB in divisional round

I get: Any other result

I'll give you 2:1 odds still since you think it's likely and will still allow for bet to cancel if GB doesn't win #1 seed

[Mazrimiv]

If nothing else, now I'll be really curious to see who GB plays first if they do get the #1 seed.

[Mazrimiv]

1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

I’m not saying intentionally sabotage yourselves, but no reason to be upset what so ever if you don’t get the #1 seed. 

The Packers don't need to be instructed to sabotage themselves, it's already deeply ingrained in their DNA.

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

Then you are disagreeing with math.

Tampa earning the 5 seed means they win out: (0.83)*(0.75) = 62% chance they are the 5 seed (according to 538)

Tampa beating Washington is approx. 70% (I'll even round up to match the inferior ATL win percentage): (0.62)*(0.75) = 47% chance they move on as 5 seed

Chances of BOTH the 6 and 7 seeds losing are AT WORST 60% each: (0.6)*(0.6) =36% chance

So therefore, chances of #5 seed TB facing #1 seed GB in divisional is AT BEST: (0.36)*(0.47) = 17% = or 1/6.

That is not "likely"

I will put my money where my mouth is and offer you 2:1 odds on this for any amount of anything you want. You get: 5 seed TB @ 1 seed GB in divisional. I get: Anything else

 

[Arthur Penske]

2 hours ago, incognito_man said:

I think it is more likely than not that GB, as the #1 seed, faces something else other than the #5 seeded Bucs in the divisional round. And certainly not likely enough to not want the first round bye. And certainly not because we'd be afraid of the faltering Bucs with an aging Tom Brady to the point where you'd prefer to NOT get a first round bye.

I think it would but much different vs Tampa in Jan at Lambeau but I still don’t want to play Tampa. They match up too well vs GB.

 

I wouldn’t pencil in Seattle or the Saints to easily win in the first round however as someone else implied.