Defense Discussion [2017]

[Shanedorf]

thanks dude, greatly appreciated

[Shanedorf]

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/08/01/nitro-package-brings-explosive-element-packers-defense/529656001/

 

“I think our safety group,” McCarthy said, “is as fine a group that I've seen in my 20-plus years in this league.”

 

"Burnett, especially, brings rare versatility. He’s the only Packers safety taking snaps at free safety, strong safety, inside linebacker and slot corner. His ability to play multiple positions opened perhaps the Packers' most impactful position battle in camp, and certainly its most unusual.

The Packers have used their three-safety “nitro” package extensively in camp, exploring ways to get more players from their best defensive position on the field.

McCarthy and defensive coordinator Dom Capers will have to decide whether they like the combination of Burnett at inside linebacker and Brice at safety, or Jones at inside linebacker and Burnett at safety. Both alignments have been used in camp, but the early preference has been the Burnett-Brice combination."

[AlexGreen#20]

Just now, Shanedorf said:

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/08/01/nitro-package-brings-explosive-element-packers-defense/529656001/

 

 

 

“I think our safety group,” McCarthy said, “is as fine a group that I've seen in my 20-plus years in this league.”

 

 

 

"Burnett, especially, brings rare versatility. He’s the only Packers safety taking snaps at free safety, strong safety, inside linebacker and slot corner. His ability to play multiple positions opened perhaps the Packers' most impactful position battle in camp, and certainly its most unusual.

 

The Packers have used their three-safety “nitro” package extensively in camp, exploring ways to get more players from their best defensive position on the field.

 

McCarthy and defensive coordinator Dom Capers will have to decide whether they like the combination of Burnett at inside linebacker and Brice at safety, or Jones at inside linebacker and Burnett at safety. Both alignments have been used in camp, but the early preference has been the Burnett-Brice combination."

 

Interesting article. 

The Brice vs. Jones fight is an interesting one. 

More importantly I'm not sure it reflects real positively on the CB group. 

[PossibleCabbage]

On 7/31/2017 at 7:17 AM, AlexGreen#20 said:

If anything I feel like now is the year to be most critical about the Free Agency activity. We've got 18 million in cap space left over. Last year we had 8.5ish. 

I think if anything that might be seen as a consequence of this year being the Free Agency year that was largely populated by guys from the 2013 draft, which we knew was a bad draft going in and if anything the class has undershot expectations.  So I don't know if you can find too much fault with not delving too deep into that pool.  What was the cutoff date for the 8.5m ?  I wouldn't be surprised if they got an extension or two done in the next few weeks.

[AlexGreen#20]

Just now, PossibleCabbage said:

I think if anything that might be seen as a consequence of this year being the Free Agency year that was largely populated by guys from the 2013 draft, which we knew was a bad draft going in and if anything the class has undershot expectations.  So I don't know if you can find too much fault with not delving too deep into that pool.  What was the cutoff date for the 8.5m ?  I wouldn't be surprised if they got an extension or two done in the next few weeks.

This stems back to the original point though. We live in a post rollover world. 

What good does signing extensions early do? If you spend the money this year, you're just limiting the money you're rolling over. 

[Shanedorf]

1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

This stems back to the original point though. We live in a post rollover world. 

What good does signing extensions early do? If you spend the money this year, you're just limiting the money you're rolling over. 

Agreed on the post-rollover world, but there are still come caveats

In the case of Bakh, he traded some security and injury protection NOW for a larger payday later.

If the player waits, he risks getting a serious injury in his pre-FA season and killing his market. For the Packers it locks up a player before he hits the open market and before the cap rises even more and before one of his peers signs a bigger deal impacting the comparables that agents use to negotiate

Different reasons, but still some value to both the player and the team

[CWood21]

8 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

This stems back to the original point though. We live in a post rollover world. 

What good does signing extensions early do? If you spend the money this year, you're just limiting the money you're rolling over. 

You can spread the SB over an extra year if you're doing an extension as opposed to waiting until the contract expires.

[AlexGreen#20]

3 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Agreed on the post-rollover world, but there are still come caveats

In the case of Bakh, he traded some security and injury protection NOW for a larger payday later.

If the player waits, he risks getting a serious injury in his pre-FA season and killing his market. For the Packers it locks up a player before he hits the open market and before the cap rises even more and before one of his peers signs a bigger deal impacting the comparables that agents use to negotiate

Different reasons, but still some value to both the player and the team

I think with those conditions you just sign the extension to kick in starting the next season. 

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

You can spread the SB over an extra year if you're doing an extension as opposed to waiting until the contract expires.

That's really the only advantage that I can see, and how much of an advantage is that compared to being able to sign $10,000,000 in contributors. 

[squire12]

17 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

This stems back to the original point though. We live in a post rollover world. 

What good does signing extensions early do? If you spend the money this year, you're just limiting the money you're rolling over. 

Lets use Adams as an example.  

1.  If GB signs him to an extension in the next 2-3 months.  GB likely gets him at a slightly lesser price than waiting until the 2018 FA season

2.  Signing bonus is spread out over an additional year.   That goes hand in hand with getting the player at a reduced price.  If GB can offer a slightly bigger signing bonus guaranteed $$, the player might take less in overall $$ on the contract.   Money now is better than money later from the player's perspective

3.  The negative is you have less to rollover.  Though the added money does not accrue interest in the salary cap.  (it does in the cash reserves for the team from a financial perspective)

What is the advantage of not doing the extension

1.  You have more money to rollover.  

2.  More time to see the player and make the decision to re-sign or not

3.  The negative is that you are taking on more risk that the player is now in line for a bigger payday.  "Hey we were able to rollover more $$, but now we have to spend 10% more just to resign the player now vs what we could have had him in the fall of 2017".

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, squire12 said:

Lets use Adams as an example.  

1.  If GB signs him to an extension in the next 2-3 months.  GB likely gets him at a slightly lesser price than waiting until the 2018 FA season

2.  Signing bonus is spread out over an additional year.   That goes hand in hand with getting the player at a reduced price.  If GB can offer a slightly bigger signing bonus guaranteed $$, the player might take less in overall $$ on the contract.   Money now is better than money later from the player's perspective

3.  The negative is you have less to rollover.  Though the added money does not accrue interest in the salary cap.  (it does in the cash reserves for the team from a financial perspective)

What is the advantage of not doing the extension

1.  You have more money to rollover.  

2.  More time to see the player and make the decision to re-sign or not

3.  The negative is that you are taking on more risk that the player is now in line for a bigger payday.  "Hey we were able to rollover more $$, but now we have to spend 10% more just to resign the player now vs what we could have had him in the fall of 2017".

Let me rephrase, I understand the positives and negatives.

I'm just not sure how you look at where this team is at right now and come to the conclusion those advantages and disadvantages weigh out over being able to get another contributor at OLB.

[squire12]

6 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Let me rephrase, I understand the positives and negatives.

I'm just not sure how you look at where this team is at right now and come to the conclusion those advantages and disadvantages weigh out over being able to get another contributor at OLB.

I would love another potential contributor at OLB.   You have any names on the short list.....or even the long list?

The $$ is there, is the player there to match the $$ and potential benefits.

It takes 2 to tango.  Maybe TT reached out to a bunch of them and with Matthews, Perry and Fackrell.....some thought the amount of snaps were not going to be there.

[AlexGreen#20]

3 minutes ago, squire12 said:

I would love another potential contributor at OLB.   You have any names on the short list.....or even the long list?

The $$ is there, is the player there to match the $$ and potential benefits.

It takes 2 to tango.  Maybe TT reached out to a bunch of them and with Matthews, Perry and Fackrell.....some thought the amount of snaps were not going to be there.

Mario Addison, Lorenzo Alexander, and Elvis Dumervil are a couple of guys I think could be contributors if when, Clay/Perry miss a lot of time. You give up the comp pick, but I think those could have been productive options.

There's no guarantees obviously, but I think you could've had mutual interest. Team is confident in their kids though. 

[packfanfb]

Right now, our defense is a lot of "what if's" which is intriguing but scary.

DLine: Should be the best unit on the D. Being at camp the first few days, Clark and Lowry both look bigger, stronger and better. Daniels is Daniels and Guion and RJF will provide sufficient depth. Hopefully Adams can offer something later in the year after missing the entire preseason. Overall, this is best group in terms of depth IMO.  

OLB: Got two big "named" guys in Matthews and Perry. Personally, I think Perry is the better player at this point, but if Clay stays healthy, maybe he has more than 4 sacks this year. We need him to play better, period. Too many games last year where nobody right tackles ate Clay alive all game. He has to be better. After that, it's a crap shoot, not something you want at arguably the most important position on the 3-4. At camp, Fackrell looked bigger and stronger but who knows what that means right now. He's a "what if" player. Elliott is steady but nothing more than a journeyman player. Biegel right now is just a 4th round draft pick who hasn't practiced yet. Not counting on him much this year, at least until later in the year. The rest of the guys on the roster are JAGs who wouldn't make most teams. All I have to say is if Perry or Matthews get hurt or any significant period of time, which is likely, I think we are in real trouble at this position. 

ILB: Steady but very average, as it has been for years in GB. Ryan is an okay, steady player but I don't see him ever being a play-making linebacker. I think I saw a stat showing that Ryan did not force a single TO or even have a forced fumble last year. That's pretty hard to do when you start every game at that position, and not in a good way. Martinez is a "what if" player, he was lousy last year as a rookie so he'll either make a "jump" or be lousy again this year and the year after, etc. Thomas is probably our best ILB imo, but he has marginal size and can't be a 3-down LB. Throw in the rookie Jones and Burnett as "ILBs" in certain packages, and all in all, like I said, it's a steady group, but not one play-maker in the lot. Probably good enough to make it the SB however, so I'm okay with it. 

S: Overall a very strong group. Personally, I think Burnett is little overrated but he's a steady player and a captain of sorts so he is valuable there. HHCD looks like a leader out on the field in his 4th year and I expect him to be one of our best defensive players this year. Jones looks good so far but its "practice" (Iverson voice) so I'm not getting overly hyped yet. I've heard good things about Brice but ultimately I question his awareness on the field. If he's not Bigby 2.0 in terms of intelligence, he might be a decent player. 

CB: Still overall the weakest position on the team. It is clear from practice and reports that House is the No. 1 CB on the team. That's pretty scary given he was essentially benched in Jax (yes, I know it was a different system, etc.). I think he's a good player, but I liked it better when House was our No. 3 corner or maybe a No. 2 this year (See SB 45). He'd be great to pair with a guy like Shields but alas... Maybe he's up to the task of covering the Julios, Greens and Bryant's of the NFL. We will see. After House, it literally is "hold your breath and pray" at CB. Our best hope IMO is that King comes on right away and secures the No. 2 spot. Rollins appears to be playing with more confidence this summer and could be a good fit in the slot. Can't say the same about Randall. I'm telling you body language says a lot and at camp Randall looked like a guy who doesn't want to be in Green Bay. He's been relegated to the No. 4-5 corner on the team, right there with Gunter. At least Gunter has an excuse because he can't run and frankly plays above his ability at times. I simply have no confidence that Randall is going to improve much from last year, and I don't buy the injury excuse because he was poor last year even before the injuries started. That being said, he's a "what if" player just like Rollins, Gunter and the rest of the group outside of House really. Truly, this position, depending on how it performs probably makes or breaks our deep playoff run. 

Overall, right now, I think we are a 20-25 defense, not close to the top 10. If some key players have made that "jump" and we stay healthy, maybe we creep in the 15 area. That would probably be good enough with the GOAT at QB who simply needs anything but a bad defense to get us back to the SB. 

 

 

[Norm]

Really short reply to a long post but I've been saying a lot we need a bunch of things to go right to get above 15ish. I think that's kind of my a little too high over under. I don't think we'll been near 25 in reality barring injuries and stuff though.