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Defense Discussion [2017]

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It was a deep running back group this year as well.  Quality and quantity.  As soon as they pick up the nuances of pass protection they'll see more time.

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4 hours ago, vegas492 said:

If you have the time...find me the last time GB cut a 5'th round pick, a 6'th round pick and a 7'th round pick from their most recent draft class.

I'm guessing it is rare.

My perceived "angst" is this.....we have limited RB touches.  And drafted three of them.  There aren't enough touches to make that a smart drafting philosophy.

I'm not so upset about drafting 2 WR's....the Yancey pick was a complete head scratcher.

I think the draft could have been organized and run better just based on those picks.

But...I can't really be upset about anything.  Just a little angst.  Loved King, Jones, Adams and Biegle.  I didn't like the Williams pick, but I also didn't hate it.  I like the flier on Amichia.

First off, the Packers were "able" to cut their 5th, 6th, and 7th round pick because of their depth.  This isn't a case like Brian Brohm where they legitimately showed that the speed of the NFL was too much for them.  Releasing DeAngelo Yancey and Malachi Dupre had more to do with the WRs they were competing against, and the fact that Trevor Davis and Jeff Janis are far superior on ST than the two draft picks.  As for Kofi Amichia, he was clearly a project when the Packers drafted him and the fact that he went unclaimed pretty much confirms that.  The Packers took the risks, and it didn't work out.  That happens.

As for drafting multiple backs, call it hedging your bets.  It's like going and playing roulette and putting one chip on black and one on red.

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22 hours ago, NormSizedMidget said:

Like I always say. Trying to fill positions at pick like 200 is a bad way to operate imo.

If you manage to find quality ST that late in the draft, you'd consider that a win.  The actual success rate of finding starters that late in the draft is astronomically low, and it's even lower when you're talking about impact players drafted that late.

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7 hours ago, vegas492 said:

And right now?  I'd happily take a late 3 for all of those picks.  You'd get more juice out of that guy than you would the cut guys, or guys who will not be active, or guys who won't even be depth in two years.

I don't think there is as much certainty with late-3rd rounders as you pretend. the bust rate is around 75% at that point. even if you hit on that guy all it takes is 1 injury to erase it all. By spreading the value among multiple picks, you diversify the injury risk so you're less likely to be left with nothing. You also have more lottery tickets one of whom may pop in training camp & preseason, whom you can then retain on the roster. 

wayy too early to say anything about anyone's draft class. 

Edited by TransientTexan

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So by that theory, we should trade very pick outside of the second round.  They are all lottery tickets with a bust rate of 75% even in the third round.

Got it.

My word.  My only point was that there is on ball and we drafted three backup halfbacks.  And we are a heavy passing team.  There are only so many carries to go around.  It was excessive.  Argue all you want, it was excessive.  Hedging a bet?  You bet.  And it wasn't a wise draft strategy.  Not to the extent that it was hedged.

Yancey was overdrafted.

That is it.  If playing the hindsight game....I'd rather they have traded all of those picks for a guy who had the ability to actually produce.

They are going to be young again next year and deep.  With a ton of picks.  My hope is that they forgo the "hedge their bets" philosophy and the "lottery ticket" philosophy of the draft and use those later picks to move around the draft to get guys better suited to produce.  Even if only on special teams.

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7 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

So by that theory, we should trade very pick outside of the second round.  They are all lottery tickets with a bust rate of 75% even in the third round.

Got it.

In a perfect world, sure.  You're increasing your chances of finding success, but you're also hurting your team in terms of depth as well as taking away more chances to hit on alter draft picks.  I mean, if the Seahawks traded up in the 2012 draft using their 3rd round pick than they wouldn't have been able to select Russell Wilson.

 

7 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Yancey was overdrafted.

That is it.  If playing the hindsight game....I'd rather they have traded all of those picks for a guy who had the ability to actually produce.

They are going to be young again next year and deep.  With a ton of picks.  My hope is that they forgo the "hedge their bets" philosophy and the "lottery ticket" philosophy of the draft and use those later picks to move around the draft to get guys better suited to produce.  Even if only on special teams.

I think you're overestimating the number of players that have draftable grades.  In any given draft, you might only have 100-150 players with draftable grades because of character flaws, injury concerns, fit questions, etc.  So when you're drafting in the 5th, 6th, 7th rounds of the NFL draft, you're probably not looking at players with draftable grades.  You're digging into your priority UDFAs whom you want to get an extended look in training camp.  Odds are that was the case with DeAngelo Yancey.

EDIT: And there's also that pesky fact that you need a team that's willing to trade down.  If the Packers offered their 4th round pick AND all the rest of their picks in a given draft, that's probably not going to get you much higher than early 4th round.

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There is some merit to the lottery ticket analogy. Sometimes you win $ 64 for matching 4 of 6 numbers and that's true of the late picks and UDFAs

If you can coach them up and get some return, that's how you manage a modern day NFL roster. I posted this before, but scroll down to the Packers graphics and it shows that 37 % of the players are rookies and consume only 18% of the cap. That's how ya make it work. Those lottery tickets aren't complete throwaways, but instead a really important part of having a winning team and paying your stars -  even if the late rounders don't hit it big.

https://overthecap.com/texture/

We also heard this comment from Palmy talking about drafting Yancey:

"Might take Janis's roster spot after a year on the PS. That said, Yancey is 6'2 220 plus and runs a hair under 4.5. One could make a case that those guys are always worth a long look on the cheap though."

Finding and coaching up cheap players is critical to long- term success and good NFL front offices don't view these guys like Yancey, Mays etc as failures. 

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6 hours ago, vegas492 said:

It is rare to let so many go in a draft class.

Driver, Tauscher...7'th round picks.  Not the rule, more of the exception.

Was Zombo a 7'th?

Where was Timmerman taken?  6'th?

Brad Jones, 7'th?  Jones had a pretty solid year or two.

Janis is a great example of a 7'th..potential to be developed and quality special teams guy.

It is okay to admit that GB kind of blew the back part of this year's draft.  

Funny thing...I'm not even that mad.  Just two head scratchers....the drafting of 3 RB's and the drafting of Yancey in the 5th.  That Yancey pick was probably the worst pick GB made.  Swung for the fence with Dupre, and I think they gave up on him too early.

Think the main reason we didnt keep Yancy and Dupre is because we were 6 deep already at WR, so I mean no harm no foul there, otherwise I think we would gave them more of a chance here

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5 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Why do people keep saying we didn't keep Yancy?

I forgot he was on the practice squad lol i meant the 53

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Just now, Gopackgonerd said:

I forgot he was on the practice squad lol i meant the 53

I'm just trying to figure it out because it's not just you. The majority of people seem to be saying this and I'm very confused.

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1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I'm just trying to figure it out because it's not just you. The majority of people seem to be saying this and I'm very confused.

They coulda forgot as well lol

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7 hours ago, vegas492 said:

And if your roster is that good?  Package the picks and trade up for a better prospect.

 

That is it.  If playing the hindsight game....I'd rather they have traded all of those picks for a guy who had the ability to actually produce.  

you're fighting math, good sir.

1/2 < 1/3 + 1/4 + 1/5

Your odds are better to get a 'non-bust' from a late 5th, late 6th and late 7th round pick than from a single late 3rd round pick.

https://datascopeanalytics.com/blog/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft/

Edited by incognito_man

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1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Why do people keep saying we didn't keep Yancy?

I think it's because we didn't keep him on the active roster.  We had to expose him to waivers to get him onto the PS, so other teams had a chance to claim him but nobody did.

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1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

I think it's because we didn't keep him on the active roster.  We had to expose him to waivers to get him onto the PS, so other teams had a chance to claim him but nobody did.

True.  GB cut Yancey, he chose to return to GB and sign onto the PS.  Whether Yancey had other offers to sign elsewhere is unknown.

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