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Was Andrew Luck's decision to stay at Stanford for 2011 the most impactful of the last decade?


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Woke up this morning thinking about the domino effect it would've had if he'd declared in 2011 like most people expected.

-Luck goes #1 to the Panthers in 2011, dropping Cam Newton to the #2 pick, meaning he would almost certainly have gone to Denver (notably, a team he's never once beaten in his NFL career, including in the Super Bowl). With the trio of DeMaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Brandon Lloyd to throw to in Denver, Cam probably develops into a better passer more quickly.

-Meanwhile in Carolina, Luck instantly propels the Panthers into a perennial contender. With Ryan Grigson not there to fail at putting together a competent offensive line, does he still suffer the sort of injuries that prompted him to retire early?

-The Colts still fall apart in 2011, and end up cutting Peyton Manning over concerns about his long-term health. They take Robert Griffin III with the #1 pick of the 2012 draft, but behind that porous Colts OL he doesn't even accomplish the things he did as a rookie, and the Colts remain mediocre for multiple years afterwards. As a result, they don't make the playoffs in 2014 and DeflateGate likely never happens.

-The Washington [Redacted] don't sell the farm to move up to the #2 pick, instead hanging back and taking Ryan Tannehill at #6 overall in 2012. Tannehill, in Mike Shanahan's offense, develops much more quickly into the QB he is now, finally stabilizing things in Washington, at least in that front.

-With Washington staying put at #6, the Rams don't find a trading partner to move out of the #2 pick in 2012, and end up taking Justin Blackmon with the #2 pick. Blackmon flames out due to substance abuse issues. But this also carries a domino effect that lands Luke Kuechly, Stephon Gilmore and Fletcher Cox on different teams.

-With the Broncos getting their QB in the 2011 draft, Tebowmania never happens (he's unceremoniously traded for a mid-round pick) and more importantly, Peyton Manning signs with a different team - likely the Titans. However, without Von Miller, they don't have the catalyst to build their historically great defense that propels them to their 3rd title. Consequently, Super Bowl 50 has a different champion.

-With Manning in Tennessee, the Titans control that division for the next 3 seasons until his arm gives out. Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder end up taken by different teams. Manning, for his part, returns to MVP form in 2013, but with lesser targets at his disposal, he's less prolific than he was in Denver. Do the Titans end up keeping Mike Munchak for a few more years? Do they make a Super Bowl with Manning? 

-Brock Osweiler never takes over for Manning in 2015, and doesn't hoodwink the Texans into his awful contract.

-Also, Adam Gase doesn't undeservedly gain a reputation as an offensive whiz kid, and doesn't end up as the HC of the Dolphins or the Jets. 

 

Probably other stuff as well. How does it affect the fates of guys like Andy Dalton, Kyle Shanahan, Ryan Grigson, Bruce Arians, etc?

 

Edited by Starless
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Would Denver have moved on from Tebow that quickly?

They might’ve still taken Von, and the Bills, who took Dareus at 3 would’ve taken Cam 100%.

I’d like to think in this situation the Bills would’ve ended up with Cam or Von Miller, but real chance they would’ve still taken Dareus over Von. I think about this often, because I was so high on Luck (obv). Would there have been any chance Carolina took Cam coming off the NCAA title and Heisman over Luck? Idk. Fun thing to think about. 

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2 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

Would Denver have moved on from Tebow that quickly?

They might’ve still taken Von, and the Bills, who took Dareus at 3 would’ve taken Cam 100%.

I’d like to think in this situation the Bills would’ve ended up with Cam or Von Miller, but real chance they would’ve still taken Dareus over Von. I think about this often, because I was so high on Luck (obv). Would there have been any chance Carolina took Cam coming off the NCAA title and Heisman over Luck? Idk. Fun thing to think about. 

Cam is the type of QB Elway has coveted for his entire tenure as GM. Very little doubt in my mind he would've picked him. 

Edited by Starless
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2 hours ago, Starless said:

Cam is the type of QB Elway has coveted for his entire tenure as GM. Very little doubt in my mind he would've picked him. 

I definitely agree. I don't think that Elway ever wanted anything to do with Tebow. Maybe he works out a silent agreement with the Jags, and they trade for him after the lockout is over.

As for the draft, after the Bills & Bengals still take Dareus and A.J, it looks like the Cards would have taken Von Miller (according to the Walter Football archives). Then, after the ATL trades up to get Julio Jones, I think the Niners would have taken Pat Pete at seven. CB was a need, and he seemed to be a major target of theirs. 

The next two picks (Locker and Smith) probably are the same. At 10, though, maybe the Jags don't trade up to that spot (with the Skins to get Gabbert) since they know that Tebow will be on the way. WalterFootball.com said that the Skins may take Gabbert, but they traded down in reality when he fell to them. If they stay at 10, it may be JJ Watt, Robert Quinn, or Kerrigan.

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The Tannehill to Washington pairing would definitely have been interesting knowing what we know now. Arthur Smith runs a very Shanahan-esque offense, with the zone running, the heavy play action. Mike utilized more roll outs than Arthur does, but there's still a decent amount of it in our offense and Tannehill runs it well(and obviously his athletic profile fits it well anyway).

One thing to add to the Titans/Manning thing is Bud Adams told Peyton Manning he'd sign whoever Peyton wanted. I don't recall who the receiving FAs/offensive talent was in FA around that year, but Peyton was going to be allowed to build whatever offense he wanted here.

Bud wanted Peyton so bad, was willing to give him literally anything he wanted.

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