What to do at QB?

[bMiller031]

2 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Add in the three 2nds. Now we're adding Sutton, Risner and Hamler also. Thats 5 quality starters, 2 pro bowlers and an exciting rookie in Hamler. I'm glad thats a decision I never have to make. 

 

True. Poor analogy because of how solid the last 3 drafts have been. 2015-2017 drafts would be a no brainer

[Broncofan]

Re: Watson keep in mind the cap hit does not reflect the salary teams take on.   HOU assumes the dead money.    Here’s the actual breakdown teams take on: 

2021: 10.5M

2022:  35M

2023:  37M 

2024 - 25: 32M  each

Now the 72M hit in 2022 - 23 is certainly steep on the surface - but keep in mind, that the league TV deal expires before 2022.   The original 2021 cap was expected to be 205-210M, now adjusted back to 175-180M because of 2020’s lost revenue.    With attendance returning and a new TV deal that leverages streaming opps (a huge market that the current TV deal doesn't allow the NFL to fully leverage) - most forecasts have the 2022 cap well above 210M - and more likely closer to 220M+, at the very conservative end.     

Why does the above matter?   Well, as crazy as it sounds - once the cap hits 220M+, then the QB salaries of 30-35M become actually very much in line with past top-QB salaries, or even lower - percentage-wise.    Remember the big deal when Peyton's 19M salary was discussed for 2019?   The cap then was just north of 140M, and when it was done, was closer to 123M.   

I think most would agree in a perfect world, the cap hit for a QB never goes to 20 percent - you just lose too much flexibility.  When it's microscopic at a rookie level deal, even better.   But in the new-TV deal era, 32-35M is probably going to be a bargain for a top 5 QB.   The top QB's will likely reach Mahomes-level 40M with those cap numbers by 2022.  

Now, if ppl want to argue the price in draft capital and players, that's an entire different discussion.   But from a cap perspective, I don't think team will look at Watson's salary as prohibitive - if anything, given he's 25, and entering the peak phase of his career, they may see it as an opportunity for cost certainty and actual below-market salary for his level of play from 2022-5.   

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Broncofan

[French Fan]

3 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Add in the three 2nds. Now we're adding Sutton, Risner and Hamler also. Thats 5 quality starters, 2 pro bowlers and an exciting rookie in Hamler. I'm glad thats a decision I never have to make. 

 

Never put your eggs in the same basket

Watson in Denver is a clearly  NO !

1)The price is too steep

2)we haven't a deep roster (LB-DL-CB-S)

3)we have a QB in rookie deal that can perform well and need consistency

4) The next 2 salary cap would be diificult with Covi-19 and his salary

5) At the end of the day a QB can't win a SB alone (see how long Elway missed - Marino never- Manning 8 yrs .....) this is a TEAM win

[jsthomp2007]

hmmm, Watson? a QB who can go toe to toe with Mahomes??? Okay, I'd take that deal.

[broncos67]

11 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Heck no to this I don't question the talent guys probably closest thing too Micheal Jordan in the NFL besides PaT Mahomes.

But all those assets 3 firsts and three seconds and I'm sure he'd want that kind of power here. I don't know how that dynamic would work and am uncomfortable going all in on him as the face of the franchise player slash gm.

I would trade that for him now. Watson is that good. He's young. He's proven. We need a QB to compete in the AFCW. Without one, we're not going to sniff the playoffs, I don't care how good and young the offensive core is.

[thebestever6]

8 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

I would trade that for him now. Watson is that good. He's young. He's proven. We need a QB to compete in the AFCW. Without one, we're not going to sniff the playoffs, I don't care how good and young the offensive core is.

Ok ur defense would turn into the Texans with all the spent premium picks on him.

[jsthomp2007]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Ok ur defense would turn into the Texans with all the spent premium picks on him.

Yeah, having a better than average defense, and sh***t QB play has proven effective for us so far.  When is our playoff game this weekend, Saturday or Sunday?  

[champ11]

i can't imagine houston trading him, on the real. is there any precedent for a young, top 5 level QB being traded? the last one that compares has to be Cutler and he wasn't a top 5 guy. 

 

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, champ11 said:

i can't imagine houston trading him, on the real. is there any precedent for a young, top 5 level QB being traded? the last one that compares has to be Cutler and he wasn't a top 5 guy. 

 

Yeah - just the precedent to trade a 25 year old peak WR wasn’t there before, either - let alone THAT deal.   I kinda miss BOB (but HOU fans don’t LOL).  
 

It’s still unlikely - but the fact Watson is this unhappy about how things went down in their first offseason without BOB is pretty telling.   HOU is a complete clown show org wise.   Sadly for HOU fans it didn’t stop when BOB left.  

Edited January 8, 2021 by Broncofan

[broncosfan_101]

10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Re: Watson keep in mind the cap hit does not reflect the salary teams take on.   HOU assumes the dead money.    Here’s the actual breakdown teams take on: 

2021: 10.5M

2022:  35M

2023:  37M 

2024 - 25: 32M  each

Now the 72M hit in 2022 - 23 is certainly steep on the surface - but keep in mind, that the league TV deal expires before 2022.   The original 2021 cap was expected to be 205-210M, now adjusted back to 175-180M because of 2020’s lost revenue.    With attendance returning and a new TV deal that leverages streaming opps (a huge market that the current TV deal doesn't allow the NFL to fully leverage) - most forecasts have the 2022 cap well above 210M - and more likely closer to 220M+, at the very conservative end.     

Why does the above matter?   Well, as crazy as it sounds - once the cap hits 220M+, then the QB salaries of 30-35M become actually very much in line with past top-QB salaries, or even lower - percentage-wise.    Remember the big deal when Peyton's 19M salary was discussed for 2019?   The cap then was just north of 140M, and when it was done, was closer to 123M.   

I think most would agree in a perfect world, the cap hit for a QB never goes to 20 percent - you just lose too much flexibility.  When it's microscopic at a rookie level deal, even better.   But in the new-TV deal era, 32-35M is probably going to be a bargain for a top 5 QB.   The top QB's will likely reach Mahomes-level 40M with those cap numbers by 2022.  

Now, if ppl want to argue the price in draft capital and players, that's an entire different discussion.   But from a cap perspective, I don't think team will look at Watson's salary as prohibitive - if anything, given he's 25, and entering the peak phase of his career, they may see it as an opportunity for cost certainty and actual below-market salary for his level of play from 2022-5.   

 

I think the biggest issue here isn’t the salary, or the draft pick capital. It’s the combination of the two. Spending premium dollars on a QB is fine, but you need to hit on some good young players in the draft in that scenario to recoup some value-per-cap-dollar. I don’t think you can give up 5-6 top assets for the opportunity to pay out elite QB money.

Thinking about this a little more, it sure makes the idea of trading up in the draft more palatable, doesn’t it? My first thought when I read that Miami was open to moving 1.3 was ‘oh man, trading 1.9, 2.8, and 2022 1st probably gets us real close, but that’s such a crazy investment.’ But for an elite QB prospect? Who could give you 3-4 years of quality production on a rookie deal? If you hit on that pick, you’re pretty much an instant playoff team. 
 

Now, I’m not saying moving up to 1.3 guarantees us anything close to a Deshaun Watson type player. But what I am saying is, when you don’t have an elite QB, Priority #1 needs to be ‘Get An Elite QB,’ And this Deshaun trade talk is making it clear that the most cost-effective way to do that is to do whatever it takes to draft one. 
 

And the top 3 guys in this draft aren’t just ‘teams need to draft a QB so they’re gonna take these guys even though they’re Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel, Mitch Trubisky.’ These are almost universally regarded as franchise QB prospects. The hit rate on guys with that kind of pedigree is worth the risk, IMO.

Edited January 8, 2021 by broncosfan_101

[Broncofan]

23 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

I think the biggest issue here isn’t the salary, or the draft pick capital. It’s the combination of the two. Spending premium dollars on a QB is fine, but you need to hit on some good young players in the draft in that scenario to recoup some value-per-cap-dollar. I don’t think you can give up 5-6 top assets for the opportunity to pay out elite QB money.

Sure, it’s a sliding scale though.   Giving up 3 assets, ppl would likely be ok with.  5-6, the margin to miss picks goes down.  
 

But there’s a powerful counter-argument - you make the playoffs with Watson, those 2nd round picks don’t have nearly the same impact.   And the 1sts rd pick whiff rate goes up than picking in the top 12.    It certainly did with our playoff years.   Now I know it will be argued methodology differences were at play - but this holds true in general as well.    Picking in the 20’s, suddenly the 2022-23 picks aren’t nearly as valuable.    
 

I think HOU is still far away from truly considering dealing Watson.   So this is really a theoretical discussion.   It’s just a Watson situation would be precedent setting, like @champ11 alluded to.   It can’t be stressed enough that age-25 Watson has the very real potential to be a bargain at the 2024-25 prices.     I know it seems like a wild statement but the new TV deal really makes a 220M+ cap by 2023 very realistic.   We could see a 250M+ cap by 2024.    In that lens the Watson deal would be a major bargain.     The whole statement that he’s overpaid is using today’s dollars - and it’s way off-base unless the cap is stagnant.   Which we know it isn’t in any year except 2021, because of Covid.  

Edited January 8, 2021 by Broncofan

[broncosfan_101]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Sure, it’s a sliding scale though.   Giving up 3 assets, ppl would likely be ok with.  5-6, the margin to miss picks goes down.  
 

But there’s a powerful counter-argument - you make the playoffs with Watson, those 2nd round picks don’t have nearly the same impact.   And the 1sts rd pick whiff rate goes up than picking in the top 12.    It certainly did with our playoff years.   Now I know it will be argued methodology differences were at play - but this holds true in general as well.   
 

I think HOU is still far away from truly considering dealing Watson.   So this is a theoretical discussion.   But it can’t be stressed enough that age-25 Watson has the very real potential to be a bargain at the 2024-25 prices.     I know it seems like a wild statement but the new TV deal really makes a 220M+ cap by 2023 very realistic.   We could see a 250M+ cap by 2024.    In that lens the Watson deal would be a major bargain.     The whole statement that he’s overpaid is using today’s dollars - and it’s way off-base unless the cap is stagnant.   Which we know it isn’t in any year except 2021, because of Covid.  

Definitely not saying Deshaun is overpaid at elite QB money. My argument (and please read over my long edit, I should’ve just added a new post instead) is simply that paying elite QB money is a lot easier for a team when they’ve got the draft capital to add cheaply to their roster that way. 

[jsthomp2007]

if the Broncos can add Watson, do it! it eliminates a huge needs we've needed since Manning. BUT you better get Shurmer on board as to how you use him.

 

[jolly red giant]

This is the big question - could Watson win the SB with the current roster? - because we are not going to get anything from the draft for three years if we were to trade for him and we would probably have very little cap space for FAs either.

In my opinion the roster is not deep enough - and we need another couple of sold drafts to get into that position. I think this possibility has come a couple of years too early for us.

Now - here is why I could see it happening - selling the team would be more attractive with a franchise QB on the roster.

[The Helicopter]

19 hours ago, Broncofan said:

From all accounts, it likely would costs 3 1sts, maybe 3 2nds...and a young player who's cheap (for us, that's easy - Lock).

Honestly, it's not a crazy scenario to consider (would ideally love to keep it to 3 1sts & Lock - but I suspect HOU would say no quite easily).

Apparently this is all because HOU promised they'd keep Watson involved in the HC/GM search - and then promptly hired GM Caserio without any consultation.    Holy **** HOU.

I'd do it if the ownership situation was stable. We've already squandered this capital on failed QB picks over the years...no brainer.