What to do at QB?

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

It's a testament to how incredibly hard it is to get out of QB purgatory when you have a good roster. Difference making QBs, until recently, have basically never been made available. And you're not likely to get a QB in the draft picking in the mid teens-20s. So you talk yourself into the tier of low end starters and try to make everything else perfect for them. But it's never enough. This can be an inescapable cycle. 

The biggest "swing" they took was trading for 40 year old Brett Favre and that's the closest that organization has come to a Super Bowl in the Spielman era. I think there's something to be learned from that. 

I don't think ppl appreciate the rarity of this point, given what's happening this off-season, and maybe next one.

Before 2020, there have been 4 FA QB acquisitions that have worked out OK to really well since 2010:

1.  Peyton (duh) - and he came with massive risk, but was also available only because Luck fell into Indy's lap.

2. Cousins - I think most of us would recognize he's been OK, and Minny's been OK - but not great.   But he was also miles ahead of Case Keenum, whom we all know Elway/Kubiak backed hard.

3.  Tannehill - and again, he was a reclamation project.   Literally the exception that proves the rule.  

4.  Brady - who really left on his terms, partly because he was year-to-year on a renewing contract with NE.   That's a contract you don't see with other QB's.   And he got to pick his destination, too.

 

As it turns out, we could see 4 top 10 QB's find new teams by next year - Stafford (I do believe he falls there, especially when you factor in how wretched DET is), Watson, A-Rod, and if SEA falls flat on their face, Russell Wilson.   But it's literally been the exception to the rule to have this kind of movement of actual difference-making QB talent.     We should be mindful of the norm that once a team finds its guy - they rarely let him go.   

What's happened with Watson, A-Rod, and should it go down, Wilson - aren't occurrences other teams can count on every year.   It so happens it's likely happening this year & next.  It's also very unlikely to happen again for quite a while.   Now it doesn't mean we should bite on every chance - for example, I'd be against getting Matt Ryan, because there are already signs of decline we're seeing.    But we shouldn't think "if it doesn't work out this year, wait until next offseason" - that situation hasn't worked out at all.   

Sometimes you only get 1 year to find your QB - and then you're stuck 2-3 more years until a similar opporunity arises, if you're lucky.     Passing on Josh Allen was that draft chance in 2018 (to be fair, I wasn't one of those guys on him, either).    It took 3 years until we had a similar shot (and then passed on Fields, but point being we didn't have a shot at a franchise-ceiling guy until 2021, when we passed in 2018).

Edited May 17, 2021 by Broncofan

[jsthomp2007]

The best model for all of this was the Favre to Rogers model because they have had a Pro Bowl QB since I was in high school.  The catch 22 is yeah we want to be contending right now, but in door #2 there could be the next Brady where you have your QB for two decades.  

[CWood21]

9 hours ago, ClockWorkOrange said:

All of this for a 38 year old QB that might very well get hurt!?

And we've officially moved into the "LT is overrated because he might get hurt" territory.

[ClockWorkOrange]

4 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

And we've officially moved into the "LT is overrated because he might get hurt" territory.

Is the LT 38 years old?  Are we giving up 3 firsts and a player to get him and likely locking into a multiyear deal worth 25-40mil a year... If so that would be very valid.  

Edited May 17, 2021 by ClockWorkOrange

[Dbrog24]

1 hour ago, jsthomp2007 said:

The best model for all of this was the Favre to Rogers model because they have had a Pro Bowl QB since I was in high school.  The catch 22 is yeah we want to be contending right now, but in door #2 there could be the next Brady where you have your QB for two decades.  

This is where not taking Fields is such a blow to me (and I love Surtain). Granted, I do think it says something that multiple organizations who could have used him passed on him. Still...he clearly has potential and going by ClockWorkOrange's method, this could have been an immensely powerful dart that brings more competition to the QB room for relatively low capital investment in the grand scheme.

However, to BroncoFan's and several other of us' point, this creates a perfect opportunity to bring in someone like Rodgers where we don't really need anymore Booms from the first round (except QB) at least right now. As myself and others have mentioned too, we will begin losing many of these young studs we have when their contracts are up but we keep sucking (talking about building culture..this isn't it). The way to get players to stay is creating a winning culture (see Tampa most recently) and the way to win the most games right now....that's Rodgers. Even if he did get injured, I guarantee guys like Von would be interested in playing with him the following year and might even take a pay cut as opposed to right now, he wants a crap load of money to stay here because we suck.

[SteelKing728]

13 hours ago, ClockWorkOrange said:

Is the LT 38 years old?  Are we giving up 3 firsts and a player to get him and likely locking into a multiyear deal worth 25-40mil a year... If so that would be very valid.  

LT is LaDanian Tomlinson, not Left Tackle haha

Its an old FF joke back from like 2006.

[jolly red giant]

13 hours ago, ClockWorkOrange said:

Are we giving up 3 firsts and a player to get him and likely locking into a multiyear deal worth 25-40mil a year... If so that would be very valid.  

You do not know what it will cost to get Rodgers or what he will get paid - or where those FRPs will be or who will be picked using them. On top of that you have no idea how long more Rodgers will play for - health wise he is a robust character, has rarely been injured and rarely missed games when he has been (he has missed something like 20 games in over 220 games over 13 seasons - and most of them came from two collarbone fractures one in 2013 and the other in 2017). The guy could potentially play another 6-8 years if he wanted to.

Furthermore - your approach pretty much guarantees us bottom feeder position in the AFCW and mid-draft mediocrity for the next fifteen years. The NFL has become a more pass-happy league and you need a top notch QB to succeed these days.

 

[Joe_is_the_best]

I do think it’s a bit disingenuous to act like building through the draft or building through free agents are mutually exclusive choices. Nobody believes that building a team primarily through FA is the right approach. This team was built through the draft & it was built well. We have a wealth of talent, and it was built through the draft. But good drafting isn't always enough. You can be fantastic at drafting and never touch an MVP caliber QB.

This is not an either/or. We built the team the right way. It's built. Getting Rodgers would not make Paton a hypocrite. He firmly believes in a draft-based approach, not a draft-only approach. 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, Joe_is_the_best said:

I do think it’s a bit disingenuous to act like building through the draft or building through free agents are mutually exclusive choices. Nobody believes that building a team primarily through FA is the right approach. This team was built through the draft & it was built well. We have a wealth of talent, and it was built through the draft. But good drafting isn't always enough. You can be fantastic at drafting and never touch an MVP caliber QB.

This is not an either/or. We built the team the right way. It's built. Getting Rodgers would not make Paton a hypocrite. He firmly believes in a draft-based approach, not a draft-only approach. 

I've been banging the drum from 2017-20 that we shouldn't spend a dime on stop-gap FA solutions, since we are thinking long-term and weren't legitimate contenders.   And why any FA signing should have some long-term potential baked in, because we weren't ready.     But this offseason and next year are where the window legitimately opens for the next 2-3 years - if we have the QB.   If we don't,  we're stuck in mediocrity (or worse, just good enough to make the playoffs, but bad enough to leave early, and never have a serious shot).

As you said, it isn't a binary choice.    FA to win now, or even trading future 1sts, make sense if the window is legitimately open, and the player(s) in question are true difference-makers.   That's been my objection to the past moves - restructuring Von to simply get 1 year of Clinton McDonald & Tramaine Brock in FA and 1 year of Jaret Veldheer in trade was a horrible move on a team that couldn't win then.    Getting A-Rod for the next 2-3 years at peak performance at a minimum, given the roster we have, is a no-brainer at 2 1sts / young player.   

If GB wants to hold out for an insanely higher haul, or they simply extend A-Rod and he recants on his desire to leave (seems unlikely the longer there's radio silence, but can't discount it until a trade happens), no problem.    But making this like it's some binary choice completely misses the context on why so many ppl rightfully get excited at the prospect of A-Rod (or Watson pre-lawsuits, or if we had gone that route, Fields with 1.9).   We're literally just a QB away from being a legitimate contender for 2021-2 minimum.   Without one, we're pretenders....and starting the cycle over again once the draft guys get expensive, is no guarantee we'll repeat the same build (and in the late 20's, we or any team likely won't miss out on thos picks vs. having elite QB play).   And getting an elite QB for 2-3 years minimum (remember, A-Rod's shown no signs of decline, unlike Matt Ryan has, etc. - which really does leave his peak time unknown), well IMO it's a no-brainer for a team in our current position.

Edited May 18, 2021 by Broncofan

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

I've been banging the drum from 2017-20 that we shouldn't spend a dime on stop-gap FA solutions, since we are thinking long-term and weren't legitimate contenders.   And why any FA signing should have some long-term potential baked in, because we weren't ready.     But this offseason and next year are where the window legitimately opens for the next 2-3 years - if we have the QB.   If we don't,  we're stuck in mediocrity (or worse, just good enough to make the playoffs, but bad enough to leave early, and never have a serious shot).

As you said, it isn't a binary choice.    FA to win now, or even trading future 1sts, make sense if the window is legitimately open, and the player(s) in question are true difference-makers.   That's been my objection to the past moves - restructuring Von to simply get 1 year of Clinton McDonald & Tramaine Brock in FA and 1 year of Jaret Veldheer in trade was a horrible move on a team that couldn't win then.    Getting A-Rod for the next 2-3 years at peak performance at a minimum, given the roster we have, is a no-brainer at 2 1sts / young player.   

If GB wants to hold out for an insanely higher haul, or they simply extend A-Rod and he recants on his desire to leave (seems unlikely the longer there's radio silence, but can't discount it until a trade happens), no problem.    But making this like it's some binary choice completely misses the context on why so many ppl rightfully get excited at the prospect of A-Rod (or Watson pre-lawsuits, or if we had gone that route, Fields with 1.9).   We're literally just a QB away from being a legitimate contender for 2021-2 minimum.   Without one, we're pretenders....and starting the cycle over again once the draft guys get expensive, is no guarantee we'll repeat the same build (and in the late 20's, we or any team likely won't miss out on thos picks vs. having elite QB play).   And getting an elite QB for 2-3 years minimum (remember, A-Rod's shown no signs of decline, unlike Matt Ryan has, etc. - which really does leave his peak time unknown), well IMO it's a no-brainer for a team in our current position.

So, you make some valid points but I really really wish you'd stop stating your opinion as fact. 

"We're literally just a QB away from being a legitimate contender for 2021-2 minimum." Really? This is a team that was rated 28th offensively and 25th defensively last year.

Now, I'm usually about the most optimistic poster on this forum. I can really see us making huge leaps on both sides of the ball this year with the roster we have. We have 5 of 6 division games late in the year so we'll have lots of time to gain experience and work out the kinks. 

I'm all for letting it play out. Apparently so are Fangio and Paton. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

So, you make some valid points but I really really wish you'd stop stating your opinion as fact. 

"We're literally just a QB away from being a legitimate contender for 2021-2 minimum." Really? This is a team that was rated 28th offensively and 25th defensively last year.

Now, I'm usually about the most optimistic poster on this forum. I can really see us making huge leaps on both sides of the ball this year with the roster we have. We have 5 of 6 division games late in the year so we'll have lots of time to gain experience and work out the kinks. 

I'm all for letting it play out. Apparently so are Fangio and Paton. 

It's always just my opinion, just like yours & everyone else, on where we see the team.  Outside of @AnAngryAmerican, I've been one of the most pessimistic posters the last 4 years.   So it's an interesting contrast.  We just happen to disagree here, that's fine.   

Edited May 18, 2021 by Broncofan

[Cutler06]

2 hours ago, AKRNA said:

So, you make some valid points but I really really wish you'd stop stating your opinion as fact. 

"We're literally just a QB away from being a legitimate contender for 2021-2 minimum." Really? This is a team that was rated 28th offensively and 25th defensively last year.

Now, I'm usually about the most optimistic poster on this forum. I can really see us making huge leaps on both sides of the ball this year with the roster we have. We have 5 of 6 division games late in the year so we'll have lots of time to gain experience and work out the kinks. 

I'm all for letting it play out. Apparently so are Fangio and Paton. 

Guess, I'm the one that needs to be optimistic then. One thing I'd point out is that those rankings you speak about are from LAST YEAR'S team, no Sutton, no Miller, so this is not that team.  Optimism is a wonderful thing until the truth spoils it, so ya'll be quiet !!

[broncofan48]

Question for those against getting Rodgers:

 

I understand the qualms, and full disclosure I don’t think Lock is the answer.  Or Teddy for that matter either. But assuming the talent on the roster helps elevate whichever’s game what is the best case scenario for either of them in your opinion?   Top 16 starter?  Top 10?   What’s a success that you’d be pleased with

[AKRNA]

26 minutes ago, Cutler06 said:

Guess, I'm the one that needs to be optimistic then. One thing I'd point out is that those rankings you speak about are from LAST YEAR'S team, no Sutton, no Miller, so this is not that team.  Optimism is a wonderful thing until the truth spoils it, so ya'll be quiet !!

You got me laughin! Good job.

I'll be coming up with my annual optimistic "team outlook" post here pretty quick. I really do think we'll surprise a lot of people. 

[grizmo78]

So with PS2 signing his contract, does that completely take out the possibility of him being included in any trade for the foreseeable future?