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What to do at QB?


AnAngryAmerican

What is your preference for the QB spot?  

56 members have voted

  1. 1. What is your preference for the QB spot?

    • Keep Drew Lock as the starter for 2021
      21
    • Draft a rookie in the 1st round and make him the starter
      15
    • Trade for/sign an established vet (Stafford, Wentz, Ryan)
      14
    • Trade for/sign a journeyman vet (Fitz, Tyrod) to compete with Lock
      6


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19 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I corrected my statement referring too Chris Ballard specifically and he also eluded to the history of first round QBs regarding second contracts.

Bringing up the Colts of 8 years ago or 22 years ago doesn't seem valid in this discussion imo.

That's all fine, but this is the statement I responded to; "They don't value the Qb in the first round of the draft so I think he probably prefers the vet trade. The percentage of first round QBs warranting second contracts is astounding.

"They" I took as the Colts. 

If you stated "the Colts under Chris Ballard's direction since 2017" I wouldn't have responded. The Devils in the details.☺️

 

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4 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I don't know what you're getting at? They could of kept their pick that they traded to San Francisco and traded up for a qb but decided against it. Ballard seems very calculated in his decision making.

Why would they trade up when they paid 25 mil for Philip Rivers. It's not a team that's rebuilding, Tua or Herbert didn't make a lot of sense for them, they were clearly aiming for a super bowl and weren't that far away tbh.

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2 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

According to Troy Renck, the price for Stafford will be a 1st + a 2nd/3rd. 

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/sports/broncos/matthew-stafford-is-available-will-broncos-call-about-veteran-qb?fbclid=IwAR3XE6U7qjrHcWL_u_IRtqiDlLJwWdmpVBe5Jn7N-a1XEMEb7tkl_tXOuEM

Given the anticipated interest in Stafford, it would likely require a first-rounder and a second or third-round pick to land the former Georgia star.

If our pick was 15 or higher, I'd say okay.  But the 9th overall, I'd have to get more from Detroit, or if the Broncos can trade back with someone else?  

Edited by jsthomp2007
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2 hours ago, rcpbawler said:

Why would they trade up when they paid 25 mil for Philip Rivers. It's not a team that's rebuilding, Tua or Herbert didn't make a lot of sense for them, they were clearly aiming for a super bowl and weren't that far away tbh.

Yeah Indy isn’t doing to develop a rookie.  They are ready to contend now.   They would gladly part with 1.21 for Stafford.  The Q is whether Det can do better.   They are likely setting the floor for DET’s pick return.  

Edited by Broncofan
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20 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah Indy isn’t doing to develop a rookie.  They are ready to contend now.   They would gladly part with 1.21 for Stafford.  The Q is whether Det can do better.   They are likely setting the floor for DET’s pick return.  

Oh absolutely. I think Indy is a prime spot to make an offer for Stafford. Great roster with very few holes, tons of cap space and solid staff. Offering 1.21 and even a third (I would be hesitant to offer more than that if I were in their shoes but if it becomes a bidding war....) and they wouldn't be hamstrung in the slightest.

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My stance with Stafford is if Denver is going to make a move it needs to be with the expectation that he will be playing at a high level for the next 5+ years.

With Stafford it seems to be if the medicals check out whether that is possible.  His arm talent and athleticism will play for 5 years, IMO.  Will his back?

If it is deemed it will, I think he’s easily worth 1.9 and a 2021 3rd and I’d even go as high as 1.9, Lock, 2021 3rd and a 2022 3rd.  

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3 hours ago, germ-x said:

My stance with Stafford is if Denver is going to make a move it needs to be with the expectation that he will be playing at a high level for the next 5+ years.

With Stafford it seems to be if the medicals check out whether that is possible.  His arm talent and athleticism will play for 5 years, IMO.  Will his back?

If it is deemed it will, I think he’s easily worth 1.9 and a 2021 3rd and I’d even go as high as 1.9, Lock, 2021 3rd and a 2022 3rd.  

I don't think it will be necessary to go higher than 1.9 and Lock IMO.   Because of the value of 1.9 over 1.12 SF and 1.21 IND.   I also wouldn't sweat a 2022 3rd instead of Lock (if DET plans to draft their QB)  if that's the sweetener (and I'd try to make it 2022 since we'll likely be well into the teens if not 20's).  

But I would highlight exactly your point - this move makes ZERO sense if ppl think Stafford is only a 2-3 year solution.  He has to be a 5 year solution.   He'll be very affordable for the next 2 years, but if he's 34 and playing well heading into 2023, we'd likely extend him 3-4 more years.   

I was all over Watson as a solution, and I still am - because he's truly an elite, top-tier QB and he’s 25 (Mahomes is his own tier, Watson's in the next one).   But the price is going to be steep, and we are frankly outgunned.    If Stafford only costs 1 first rounder, provided there is strong info from the medicals that say he's a 4-5 year solution, then yes, I'm not just OK as well, I'd be excited about the move.   As in, we-can-get-to-playoffs-and-remain-there-as-long-as-Stafford-is-healthy-and-have-legit-chances-to-win, excited.      This would be a change from my stance since 2017 started, as you are all painfully aware (LOL).

And FTR - I wasn't ok with Darnold for 2.9 (I was OK with 3.9, but that was before now), nor would I think the other true backup stopgaps are great options (other than a Winston-age guy, or a rookie Rd1 paired with a true vet stopgap).  I’ve been against looking at Eli Manning and Rivers in past years because there were clear signs of decline.   I see the same with Matt Ryan now and he’s 3 years older than Stafford (no thx).   I don’t see signs of decline with Stafford’s play except health concerns.  But the injuries are in theory unrelated and not long term.     But being 33 there is the risk.   The Medicals here are huuuuuuge.  
 

If Paton thinks Lock is a better option, OK, I don't think so, but then he stands pat.   But if Paton isn’t not sold on Lock, and Stafford is judged medically to be a 4-year peak play at minimum (hopefully 5+) - he's immediately in the 8-12 range of play, with a ceiling of being just behind the top elite tier. 

Stafford's not elite, but he's well ahead of the Cousins/Bridgewater level. I believe he'd easily outplay Matt Ryan non-2016 levels with our OL & our weapons (Ryan 2016 being the ceiling, but far more likely something more like top 6-8 play).    And while I was on-board for Kirk Cousins, remember that was in contrast to spending 7M less per year and getting Case Keenum.  My argument was that you get above-average play, from a guy who's been decent to good on bad teams.   Cousins never lived up to being more than that, but dedicating 2/36M on non-NFL talent was an even worse mistake.  Stafford is actually a clear tier ahead of a Cousins - level acquisition, and salary-wise, he's actually cheaper (the pick price sucks, but can't be avoided).   

The nice part about Stafford - he's actually a clear tier above Cousins, and he's been a comeback machine when healthy, and with awful D's, and limited supporting cast, for many years.   Now, he never deserved to be paid as the highest-earning QB when he was extended - but that's just timing.  The real beauty is we don't have to pay him as even a top 10 QB - his 20M cap hit for us would put him 19th for 2021 and his 23M hit would be 14th - and that's before Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray get extended.  That's right, he's even cheaper now than Cousins was 3 years ago at MIN's signing (since the signing bonus stays with DET).

Thing is, if Stafford's medicals are iffy, then 1.9 is too much for a 2 year solution.     And obviously, we can't know what the price is - IND & SF are going to be in on him, as will other teams.   But we do likely have the earliest pick (I don't think CAR sees themselves as ready to contend next year, so they're likely sticking with Bridgewater and looking to draft a rookie QB).   

I'm on Team Watson as option #1 but I don't think we can get him, and it can certainly be argued as too costly in picks.   But if (and it's a huuuuuuge IF) the medical say he's got 4-5 more peak seasons in him, I'm on board with Team Stafford. 

Edited by Broncofan
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25 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I’m on Team Watson as option #1 but I don't think we can get him, and it can certainly be argued as too costly in picks.   But if (and it's a huuuuuuge IF) the medical say he's got 4-5 more peak seasons in him, I'm on board with Team Stafford

When can we expect these guys to be traded? Assuming it’ll be before draft day but, other than that, when makes the most sense?

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34 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

When can we expect these guys to be traded? Assuming it’ll be before draft day but, other than that, when makes the most sense?

Stafford is almost certainly gone before the 5th day of the new football year.  Otherwise Det takes on the 5.5M roster bonus (and his salary teams take on is 14M).   That’s March 22 (new year starts on March 17).  
 

Watson likely takes longer.   Remember HOU has him under contract.   They have no incentive to sell early - but they won’t wait past the draft Rd1, and likely well ahead - since Watson has to approve the trade.  So it should happen at latest several days ahead of the April 29 draft Rd1 date. 

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Well, if you thought you were one QB away from competing, why not take a flyer for three years on Rogers?  However, being a Bay Area guy, I can see him thriving in a Kyle Shanahan offense. 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/gameday/rodgers-acknowledges-his-uncertain-future-with-packers

 

But, you never know...put Rogers in a room with Elway to see if Elway can pull a Manning? 

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Personally, I would be fine with Stafford for 1.09. In fact, I would be happy about it.

People put way too much stock into draft picks at times. We took Bradley Chubb at 1.05 and few people had a bad word to say about it prior to Josh Allen exploding. There is absolutely no comparison between the impact of Matthew Stafford and Bradley Chubb for winning a game of football in the NFL.

Stafford has so much arm talent that I am not that concerned about injuries from a longevity standpoint. I am much more worried about how much money he's already earned, and is there potential that he just walks away in a couple of years. He's earned $227m in his career and that is just from the Lions, obviously excluding endorsements. 

With our young Offense and Vic Fangio in charge of our Defense, I would really like to see Stafford slinging it around for us. I just think that some team is going to be willing to sell the house for him.

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2 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

Well, if you thought you were one QB away from competing, why not take a flyer for three years on Rogers?  However, being a Bay Area guy, I can see him thriving in a Kyle Shanahan offense. 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/gameday/rodgers-acknowledges-his-uncertain-future-with-packers

 

But, you never know...put Rogers in a room with Elway to see if Elway can pull a Manning? 

I have no doubt that when the Packers drafted Jordan Love, they did so with a view to trading Aaron Rodgers either in this forthcoming offseason or after the 2021 season. But that was before Rodgers exploded and had a MVP year and looked back to his best. The mistake prone Rodgers we saw in 2018 and 2019 was what drove the Love selection but I think his 2020 season was a game changer. 

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2 hours ago, paul-mac said:

I have no doubt that when the Packers drafted Jordan Love, they did so with a view to trading Aaron Rodgers either in this forthcoming offseason or after the 2021 season. But that was before Rodgers exploded and had a MVP year and looked back to his best. The mistake prone Rodgers we saw in 2018 and 2019 was what drove the Love selection but I think his 2020 season was a game changer. 

That presser sounded like he didn't want to be a Packer anymore.  I think he goes to the 49ers. 

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On 1/8/2021 at 10:08 AM, jsthomp2007 said:

Yeah, having a better than average defense, and sh***t QB play has proven effective for us so far.  When is our playoff game this weekend, Saturday or Sunday?  

I agree with this, but don't think we should spend that much for him.  I don't think he can win games on his own.  

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