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What to do at QB?


What is your preference for the QB spot?  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. What is your preference for the QB spot?

    • Keep Drew Lock as the starter for 2021
      19
    • Draft a rookie in the 1st round and make him the starter
      12
    • Trade for/sign an established vet (Stafford, Wentz, Ryan)
      13
    • Trade for/sign a journeyman vet (Fitz, Tyrod) to compete with Lock
      5


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These QBs never become available heard that with Kirk Cousins. 

These QBs never become available Ryan Tannehill gets traded the same year as Flacco for a fourth and 6th. And magically becomes a top 10 qb.

These QBs never become available and I see Brady going to a ready to roll team who was held back by Winston and he even brings Gronk and AB with him. 

I think I prefer that route if we get this team ready made which includes replenishing the d with blue chip players that can create turnovers.

If we go all in on Stafford now I don't think our D will be enough especially losing our first plus some.

If we build the team up our options will be plentiful. Draft or trade or who knows what can happen. I'm sure QBs would be salivating to be the ones to take down the juggernaut chief's with Andy Reid and Mahomes.

That would do a lot for their legacy.

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2 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I'm sure QBs would be salivating to be the ones to take down the juggernaut chief's with Andy Reid and Mahomes.

That would do a lot for their legacy.

I think the salary cap will take down KC first. With only 41 players under contract they're close to $20 million over the cap for 2021. This will be the first year of escalating cap #'s for Mahomes. 2021 at $25 million, 2022 at $31.5 and 2023 at $42.5. 

Interesting contract though. All but $4 million of his guaranteed money will be paid by 2022. 2023 he's only $4million of dead cap.

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3 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

These QBs never become available heard that with Kirk Cousins. 

These QBs never become available Ryan Tannehill gets traded the same year as Flacco for a fourth and 6th. And magically becomes a top 10 qb.

These QBs never become available and I see Brady going to a ready to roll team who was held back by Winston and he even brings Gronk and AB with him. 

I think I prefer that route if we get this team ready made which includes replenishing the d with blue chip players that can create turnovers.

If we go all in on Stafford now I don't think our D will be enough especially losing our first plus some.

If we build the team up our options will be plentiful. Draft or trade or who knows what can happen. I'm sure QBs would be salivating to be the ones to take down the juggernaut chief's with Andy Reid and Mahomes.

That would do a lot for their legacy.

So go ahead & ID the 2022 QB we should target next offseason, eliminating the guys who are certain to be extended / retained (rookie year deals - Lamar, Allen, Baker, Kyler, etc.).    I'll guarantee they are nowhere even close to Stafford.     QB's like Stafford come around every few years - they don't come back every year.      Keep throwing out the Cousins / Tannehills - they prove the point.   

And if you're going to say "draft a rookie" - the point is that rookies usually don't pan out year 1, so you're backing up the process another year.   And of course, whether we're bad enough to be in position to get someone of value - which with a Fangio-led team, seems unlikely (not good enough to contend on O, but won't finish bottom 3 out of sheer D overperformance, which is a credit to Fangio).

Everything in your post points to why you go after Stafford now - that Cousins/Tannehill/Brady moment is here and now.   We are favorites/co-favorites.   Again, if the medicals check out....don't overthink this.

Edited by Broncofan
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And for additional perspective....

 

 

And before ppl say "well he had help with Megatron", here are his comeback victory seasons without Megatron, and total record:

2016 - 9-7 - 8 comeback wins in the 4Q.  NFL all-time record.  You're reading that right - 8 comeback wins out of 9.   

2017 - 9-7 - 3 comeback wins in the 4Q, 1 W tied (4/9) 

2018 - 6-10 - 1 comeback win (his worst year all around)

2019 - 3-4-1 - 2 comeback wins (2/3)

2020 - 5-10 - 4 comeback wins (4/5)

 

When DET wins, it's Stafford bringing them back.  And to recap - by DVOA, bottom 8 D every year and bottom 5 3 of 5 years, bottom half OL all years, and in fact bottom 10 OL 4 of 5 years, and bottom 10 rushing attack all 5 years.

 

And overall, here are the 4Q comeback top QB's - and Stafford is 1st since 2010:

PFM 43

Brady 39

Brees 36

Big Ben 35

Unitas 34

Elway & Stafford 31

Ryan 30

Rivers & older dudes 29

(Side note - everyone but Ryan has at least 4 more seasons than Stafford).   

 

And if you think he's just slinging it out there, and being reckless in going for the comebacks, and why they lose the other games...

 

 

And in case you thought it was arbitrary, here are the #'s for guys over 50K:

ARod - 89 (no one is arguing Stafford is ARod, he's not - age 37, 51K)

Stafford - 144 (45K, age 33)

Ryan - 158 (55K, age 35)

Eli - 244 (57K, age 38 retired)

Rivers - 209 (63K. age 39 retired)

Big Ben  - 201 (60K, age 38)

Elway  (51K - different era, though - just for fun)

Won't bother with Brady & Brees since their yardage is nuts (which makes their numbers a lot more contextualized), but needless to say I'm not comparing Stafford to either...

 

_________________________

 

So, let's be clear - Stafford's NOT elite-level.   He's not as good as some of the guys here.   Good-great version Matt Ryan (who's no longer that version himself), yes.   But he's ridiculously underappreciated because of how bad the DET coaching, OL, lack of run game (remember - 11 games with a 100-yard rusher, 9-2 or 10-1 in those) and just the overall org is.   No Megatron since 2015, yet still carrying that O.  And the 14th & 19th overall cap hit for 2021-2 that's likely to be below 15th & 20th by the time the other QB's get extended.

Again, we don't know if Stafford's completely healthy to project 5+ years.   We don't know if it will cost more than 1.9.   We don't know how Paton feels about Lock.   But if we're in the driver's seat - for 1.9, and a medical report that says 5+ years are projectible - don't overthink this.  With this OL, our weapons, and a coach who gets the most out of the D -  get on board the Stafford train.  There's plenty of room for everyone.

Edited by Broncofan
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I have no problem with Staffords performance. He'd be a great upgrade, no question. My problem with it is simply mathematical. 

We give up our #9 pick and get Stafford. Still no problem, he'd be better out of the gate than any rookie. Now comes the problem.

We are in immediate cap trouble, having to assume his $33 million salary this year and $27 million the next. He's not even signed after that so basically we'd be giving up our #9 pick on a two year rental. Instead of having $19 mil in cap space this year we'd be $14 million over.

None of that makes sense for a team we're trying to develop. 

I'd be all for making a run at Fitz as a great backup and mentor to Drew. If they feel like the solution is in the draft great. I'd still think pursuing Fitz for the same reasons makes sense.

 

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11 hours ago, bMiller031 said:

Fair.. but if Lock is the guy we think he is we’re going to regret letting a top 10-12 QB pass.

These opportunities are exceedingly rare and this is a unique buy-low opportunity bc of the unusually large number of available QBs this year (via trade, FA, or draft).  We owe it to the development of Jeudy, Fant, Sutton, and Hamler to not turn down an opportunity to improve QB this significantly (at a relatively low cost). If we whiff on Stafford there’s no guarantee we get one of the top 4 QBs in the draft w/o trading up (and, besides TL, even those 3 guys panning out is a 50-50 coin flip). If we miss out on Watson, Stafford, Wilson, Fields, and Lance our QB prospects get dark REALLY fast. We start NEEDing Lock to be the guy or turning to the Wentz/Goff/Dalton types while looking down the barrel of a weak 2022 QB draft class.

Even if we ACE the 1.9 pick with a non-QB stud (Devin White, Roquan Smith-type, etc.) we’re only marginally closer to contending while even a marginal improvement at QB gives us a great shot to move up 8-10 spots because it unlocks the most underutilized positional group on the roster.

It's the "buy low" part that is misleading. He'd immediately put us over the cap with his $33 million dollar hit this year. He's only under contract for another year after that. It's basically a two year rental.

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17 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

It's the "buy low" part that is misleading. He'd immediately put us over the cap with his $33 million dollar hit this year. He's only under contract for another year after that. It's basically a two year rental.

Stafford has a 20M cap hit this year for DEN, not 33M.   DET has 13M of dead money they assume with a trade - that's why there's a 33M cap hit for them with a cut - but DEN only takes 20M for 2021 in a trade, and 23M for 2022.     20M is 11 percent of the cap, and it's the 14th highest QB salary this year.     Next year's 23M salary is likely just over 10 percent of the 220M cap, and it's the 19th highest QB salary.   And again, that's before guys like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield and/or Kyler Murray get extended, and get expensive too.

Stafford's contract is not a cap burden for top 12 QB play, it's actually the opposite.    2/43M is the cap hit for a team that acquires him via trade.  The "Prorated bonus" on OTC (or the combination of "signing bonus & restructure bonus" on Spotrac) stays with the team that trades a player away (13M in 2021, 3M in 2022 - that all is DET money).

In Spotrac - the 2 columns, "signing bonus" & "restructure bonus" - are DET"s money.  They cannot get rid of it in a trade.  Your math is off-base by a lot.    Simple take-home point - DEN takes 20M in 2021 (9.5M base salary, 10M roster bonus paid on March 22 and 500K workout bonus), and 23M in 2022 (12.5M base salary, 10M roster bonus paid on 5th day of new year, and 500K workout bonus).

To be clear - the contract is 2/43M for DEN (or any other team that acquires him via trade); and the cap hit next year is 20M, and 23M in 2022.  It's a massive bargain for top 12 QB play, and it fits well within affordable ranges even with a 180M cap next year, and a return to 220M, projected for 2022.

It's all there on OTC or Spotrac, you just have to know the money columns that stay with the team trading a player away.  If you are still somehow unsure, I trust this removes all doubt:

 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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17 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Stafford has a 20M cap hit this year for DEN, not 33M.   DET has 13M of dead money they assume with a trade - that's why there's a 33M cap hit for them with a cut - but DEN only takes 20M for 2021 in a trade, and 23M for 2022.     20M is 11 percent of the cap, and it's the 14th highest QB salary this year.     Next year's 23M salary is likely just over 10 percent of the 220M cap, and it's the 19th highest QB salary.   And again, that's before guys like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield and/or Kyler Murray get extended, and get expensive too.

Stafford's contract is not a cap burden for top 12 QB play, it's actually the opposite.    2/43M is the cap hit for a team that acquires him via trade.  The "Prorated bonus" on OTC (or the combination of "signing bonus & restructure bonus" on Spotrac) stays with the team that trades a player away (13M in 2021, 3M in 2022 - that all is DET money).

In Spotrac - the 2 columns, "signing bonus" & "restructure bonus" - are DET"s money.  They cannot get rid of it in a trade.  Your math is off-base by a lot.    Simple take-home point - DEN takes 20M in 2021 (9.5M base salary, 10M roster bonus paid on March 22 and 500K workout bonus), and 23M in 2022 (12.5M base salary, 10M roster bonus paid on 5th day of new year, and 500K workout bonus).

To be clear - the contract is 2/43M for DEN (or any other team that acquires him via trade); and the cap hit next year is 20M, and 23M in 2022.  It's a massive bargain for top 12 QB play, and it fits well within affordable ranges even with a 180M cap next year, and a return to 220M, projected for 2022.

It's all there on OTC or Spotrac, you just have to know the money columns that stay with the team trading a player away.  If you are still somehow unsure, I trust this removes all doubt:

 

 

That's good info, I missed that. The contract duration still bothers me. Giving up our 1st for a two year rental seems awfully steep. We're just not good enough for Stafford to have a major (SB) impact and we're giving up a top 10 college player we'd have for 5 years.

I still think he's a far better fit for the Colts, a team that really may be just one player away.

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54 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

That's good info, I missed that. The contract duration still bothers me. Giving up our 1st for a two year rental seems awfully steep. We're just not good enough for Stafford to have a major (SB) impact and we're giving up a top 10 college player we'd have for 5 years.

I still think he's a far better fit for the Colts, a team that really may be just one player away.

No problem.  Re: the 2-year concern - IMO there's zero chance that Paton would trade 1.9 for only 2 years of Stafford.  If he's doing it, he's likely going to sign him to an extension that likely guarantees the 2 cheap years, but then adds 2-3 more years, likely non-guaranteed.  

Again, I think it was @germ-x who said it first - you aren't trading for Stafford if it's just for 2 years.  The medicals have to say he's likely to play at peak form for 4-5 years.   Thing is, his injuries aren't ones with long-term risk, but at 33, he needs a full workup & physical to clear him (and make sure there isn't a chronic issue he's playing through).   With Stafford's skill profile (cannon arm, great accuracy, big frame, and a tough warrior mentality that stays in shape) - the likelihood he stays at peak form is really good if there are no flags.   A-Rod, Brady, Brees longevity are better examples given the arm talent involved (Ryan, Rivers, Big Ben & Eli fading before age-37 are due to injuries <Big Ben> and average <Ryan> to below-average arm strength <Eli, Rivers> to begin with).

If Paton doesn't trade 1.9  because he's not convinced of Stafford's longevity, OK.  But everything else - contract value, his present level of play, how well he's played despite a historic level of ineptitude since 2015, and even his 2020 game film (take a look at the week 7 & 13 comeback W's vs ATL & CHI  - you see prime Stafford time & again - it was there in several of his losses, but there are more highlights for the other guys lol).

Here are the highlights, but I really suggest the full game if ppl have the time (but if you don't, keep in mind it only shows the big moments, but there are so many... here goes):

Week 7 ATL (worth watching the extended game just for the ridiculously bad game management on both sides, Patricia playing for FG's instead of TD's, and then Gurley saying "hold my beer" and scoring a TD instead of falling down and killing clock, to give Stafford 1:05 left down 6 to win the game with his 4Q heroics, but here are Stafford's highlights):

The 1st throw where he looks off the D then hits Hockenson.   The throws down the seams with such placement, and splitting narrow windows.  His back shoulder placement to Golladay.  And that last drive, his accuracy and time management, that insane throw to Golladay to get them to the 12 and his ability to create extra time on the very last play.   And ATL DL was in his face the entire game.  Man...

 

 

Week 13 CHI

 

 

I can't believe those throws into tight windows, with anticipation, from the first throw to Sanu.  The ability to throw 87 (Cephus) open at the 1:30 mark.   At 3:18 he shows incredible anticipation, the ball is out before Jones has even made his cut.   The 4:30 throw was again out before Hockenson even turned his head, and frankly should have scored.   But look at the 5:00 throw, that's All-Pro S Eddie Jackson with blanket coverage, and Stafford throws the JAG TE Jesse James open.  At 6:00 and 6:20, more timing anticipation and placement to Hockenson & Amendola.   The 6:30 throw to Amendola is insane (so is the catch, but watch the replay - tight window is ridiculous).  Splitting the coverage to Hockeson at 6:50.  And so many throws, including the Jones TD throws, the look-off until the very end.  That's a top 10 D, and strong pass secondary that he made look silly at times, with no Golladay either.

 

 

Season Highlights

This is pure clickbait, but I don't care.   😝.   The arm talent, the anticipation and placement (some of the highlights don't really belong, but there's enough to show the arm skills remain as strong as ever - the number of throws that get WR's open, or hit them in stride so they max YAC).  And the look-offs, etc.  

 

___________________________________

 

Again, those are highlight reels - so I really encourage ppl to watch the entire games.  But you see such advanced QB play compared to Lock's present state, it's painful to draw comparisons.  

Still, we need to know Stafford's OK for 5+ years.   Otherwise, 1.9 is too much.   But if that's a green flag, I'm all-in on the Stafford train.

 

Edited by Broncofan
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Regarding the Stafford contract, from my FA Thread, we currently have $16.8m in cap space and by moving in from both Bouye and Casey, we save another $24.1m, giving us a total of $40.9m.

If Stafford takes 1/2 that, we have $20m left, assume about $6m-$8m for our draft picks (losing 1.9 in the trade saves us some money) and we would still have enough to extend Simmons (with a low cap hit year 1) and add a middle-tier FA or two. 

Without Stafford we would be able to do a lot more in free agency, adding depth across the roster and a big name or two plus a day 1 starter at a position of need with 1.9. 

I’m not arguing one way or another on Stafford (in this post) but acquiring him for 1.9 almost assuredly means he’s our only significant change to the roster for 2021 from 2020. Minus Stafford, we get a rookie at 1.9 and anywhere from 2-4 new starters and 2-5 role players. That’s essentially the choice Paton will have to make. 

In weighing if you want to acquire Stafford, you have to ask yourself the following question - do I want A) the same team as last year with the addition of Stafford and likely with a healthy Von and Sutton, or B) do I want 6-7 new players in key roles and a healthy Von and Sutton? 

We went 5-11 in 2020, which option is more likely to give us 5 more wins to get to 10-6 and thus the playoffs?

Edited by AnAngryAmerican
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19 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

 

We went 5-11 in 2020, which option is more likely to give us 5 more wins to get to 10-6 and thus the playoffs?

Well, we automatically are likely win more than 5 games, probably 6-7 without any changes - because the 2021 schedule is WAY easier than 2020.   

Because we finished 4th, this is our schedule for 2021:

NFC East - 4 games (@DAL, @NYG)

AFC North - 4 games (@CLE, @PIT)

@JAX, vs. NYJ

Our 6 games vs. LAC/LV/KC

 

A league average QB (Lock wasn't) gets us to 8-8 with that schedule.    A Stafford level QB gets us to 10-6, if he plays all 16 games.

 

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2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Well, we automatically are likely win more than 5 games, probably 6-7 without any changes - because the 2021 schedule is WAY easier than 2020.   

Because we finished 4th, this is our schedule for 2021:

NFC East - 4 games (@DAL, @NYG)

AFC North - 4 games (@CLE, @PIT)

@JAX, vs. NYJ

Our 6 games vs. LAC/LV/KC

A league average QB (Lock wasn't) gets us to 8-8 with that schedule.    A Stafford level QB gets us to 10-6, if he plays all 16 games.

Good point on the schedule. Plus don’t forget next year we go to a 17 game schedule and our 17th game is vs. DET. 

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1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Well, we automatically are likely win more than 5 games, probably 6-7 without any changes - because the 2021 schedule is WAY easier than 2020.   

Because we finished 4th, this is our schedule for 2021:

NFC East - 4 games (@DAL, @NYG)

AFC North - 4 games (@CLE, @PIT)

@JAX, vs. NYJ

Our 6 games vs. LAC/LV/KC

 

A league average QB (Lock wasn't) gets us to 8-8 with that schedule.    A Stafford level QB gets us to 10-6, if he plays all 16 games.

 

Washington d line is legit and we don't know what they do at qb. New York Giants went toe to toe with Tampa almost beat the team in the superbowl. I think it's too early to schedule look.

Who knows what the Jags Chargers etc look like

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3 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Washington d line is legit and we don't know what they do at qb. New York Giants went toe to toe with Tampa almost beat the team in the superbowl. I think it's too early to schedule look.

Who knows what the Jags Chargers etc look like

Even still this year was brutal; in addition to KC twice we played TEN, PIT, BUF, TB and NO, all of whom made the playoffs. That’s 7 games against playoffs teams and we lost all of them. 

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I think with the same team as last year, and Stafford, we become credible again.  I'd give up 1.9 in the draft for a 9-7 or a 10-6 season so that when the new ownership is in place free agents will want to play in Denver again.  

The only position I have concerns about (and assuming we keep Simmons on board) is at CB.  I am not sure where you address that position in the draft of FA.  If we have Stafford the next position I would have some concern with would be along the DL and then ILB.  

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