What to do at QB?

[thebestever6]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Money won’t the limiting factor.   It’s more if we bring in a vet, dive into Rd1 or commit a big offer for Watson.   

That's what I was getting at I wonder what happens if Dak came available probably a pipe dream though. 

I don't see us giving up the assets it take for Watson I mean we're looking at a defensive rebuild.

[paul-mac]

Just now, Broncofan said:

A 2nd tag would be just under 13.7M (20 percent raise on last year 11.44M tag).   It’s very possible even if it’s to extend the exclusive rights negotiation window for this year. 

Budda Baker the highest paid safety in the NFL is just under $15m AAV so I'd imagine Simmons and his agent will be looking to go higher than this. For that reasons tagging him at $13.7m is a no brainer IMO

[Broncofan]

20 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

I wonder what it would take to trade up to the 2nd pick. Obviously there's no way we're getting Lawrence, but I love Zach Wilson and think he could be a great addition. Something like #9, our second and fourth rounders this year and next year 1st and 3rd. 

 

Actually part of me wonder if a move like that is better than a Watson trade. It'd mean we wouldn't be totally mortgaging our future (likely keep this year's 3rd rounder, next year's 2nd, and all picks from 2023 onwards. Watson could literally cost nearly half a decade worth of premium picks), plus he'd be on a rookie contract so we'd have more cap room to build around him than we would with Watson.

 

It's worth remembering that the Texans were 4-12 WITH Watson because their roster is a dumpster fire and there is a very real risk that whoever trades 8 million first rounders for him and pays him $40m a year will very quickly end up in exactly the same situation.

 

The whole argument boils down to whether you think Watson can step up to a genuine Brady/Rodgers level elite QB who will carry you to 10+ wins a year regardless of what you put a round him, or whether you think he's already at his peak as a passer, i.e. a very good player but not immune to the effects of playing on a crappy team.

 

If it's the former then you let the Texans name their price. If it's the latter then run a mile.

Keep in mind with HOU taking the bonus money - Watson contract becomes a 5 year, 146M deal.   Far from the 40M figure ppl keep referring to.   His contract years: 

2021 - 10.5M 

2022 - 35M 

2023 - 37M 

2024 - 32M 

2025 - 32M 

And while that 32-37M number still looks big - keep in mind the salary cap is projected to be 220M in 2022 & 230M in 2023 - but under current TV / online revenues.   The new TV deal for 2020 is expected to be massive because online streaming is an untapped market (instead of the archaic TVDirect Sunday Ticket).   It’s actually fair to believe 32M and even 35M will be below-market salaries for 2023+.   If the cap goes about 250M by those years, for elite QB play that number will be a major bargain.  

The other factor - Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray will all get extended in next 2 offseasons.   The scale for top young QB play is going to dwarf those numbers (whereas the team trading for him doesn’t pay the signing bonus).   Especially with a rising cap the size of contracts we’ve seen is just the tip of TTE iceberg. 

Watson is already playing at an elite level.   He’s 25.   The cost to acquire will be massive.   That’s a debate worth having.    But  cost to retain him for the next 5 years IMO will look like a bargain by 2023 (and when you factor in combined 2021-22 salary of 48M, it already is).  

Edited February 3, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

Budda Baker the highest paid safety in the NFL is just under $15m AAV so I'd imagine Simmons and his agent will be looking to go higher than this. For that reasons tagging him at $13.7m is a no brainer IMO

Right just either way we can plan on Simmons being a Bronco for 2021.   It’s just a question of how many years he’s locked up.  

[AnAngryAmerican]

17 hours ago, ET80 said:

This was what the media in Houston reported today - the speculation is that the following would be required:

1.9, 2021

1st 2022

1st 2023

TE Noah Fant

OLB Bradley Chubb

QB Drew Lock

So Watson would go from a team where he had minimal talent around him, poor coaching and a FO with limited draft capital to add more young, cheap impact players to a team where he would have ... minimal talent surrounding him that is poorly coached and has limited draft capital to surround him with additional young, cheap impact players?

Is getting George Paton's office part of the deal too since he thinks he should have input on player and staff personnel decisions?

Okay, the final sentence is me being a smartass but I don't like the idea of giving up that much any player, even a 25 year old Pro Bowl QB. I know Houston has been something of a dysfunctional organization the last few years but let's remember even with all of Watson's star wars numbers the Texans went 4-12 this year with him starting every game. Good as he is and important as elite QB play is to team success, you need more and that's precisely why I'm opposed to giving up the farm for Watson. 

[ET80]

26 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Okay, the final sentence is me being a smartass but I don't like the idea of giving up that much any player, even a 25 year old Pro Bowl QB. I know Houston has been something of a dysfunctional organization the last few years but let's remember even with all of Watson's star wars numbers the Texans went 4-12 this year with him starting every game.

This is a bit of an overstatement - this time last year, this same franchise beat Buffalo in the playoffs and had a 24-0 lead on Kansas City in KC. Pretty much since that 1st Quarter, everything has gone downhill - a year and two weeks if you're looking at a calendar.

The loss of Hopkins led to a decay in the locker room, the loss of DJ Reader led to the defense completely falling out - still, the Texans we're 2-8 in one score games this season, that is an unsustainable stroke of bad luck. 

The last few years, the Texans were the 3/4 seed pretty consistently in the AFC. This collapse was sudden and without any sort of build up - it just happened.

I don't disagree with the majority of your premise - but I feel as if I need to correct this narrative.

[AKRNA]

15 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

So Watson would go from a team where he had minimal talent around him, poor coaching and a FO with limited draft capital to add more young, cheap impact players to a team where he would have ... minimal talent surrounding him that is poorly coached and has limited draft capital to surround him with additional young, cheap impact players?

Is getting George Paton's office part of the deal too since he thinks he should have input on player and staff personnel decisions?

Okay, the final sentence is me being a smartass but I don't like the idea of giving up that much any player, even a 25 year old Pro Bowl QB. I know Houston has been something of a dysfunctional organization the last few years but let's remember even with all of Watson's star wars numbers the Texans went 4-12 this year with him starting every game. Good as he is and important as elite QB play is to team success, you need more and that's precisely why I'm opposed to giving up the farm for Watson. 

Nice post. Gotta keep the sense of humor up.

In the real world, Paton giving up that much and hanging his 1st GM position totally on the neck of Watson just ain't gonna happen. I loved his offer for Stafford. Basically Lock for Stafford and swap pick #9 for #41. This man will play pretty tight as far as picks and young players are involved.

Mega deals involving draft picks for star players rarely benefit the team giving up the picks. Just ask the Vikings about Herschel Walker. Three 1st's, three 2nds and change and bingo, new dynasty in Dallas.

 

[thebestever6]

Hear the Jets are looking for a late first for Darnold I'm shocked San Francisco and Indy aren't all over that.

[AKRNA]

15 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Hear the Jets are looking for a late first for Darnold I'm shocked San Francisco and Indy aren't all over that.

Why? He's the 35th rated QB in the NFL. I get the "shoulda, coulda, woulda" but on the field he's sucked. 

A 1st rd pick is a lot for a failed reclamation project.

[thebestever6]

16 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Why? He's the 35th rated QB in the NFL. I get the "shoulda, coulda, woulda" but on the field he's sucked. 

A 1st rd pick is a lot for a failed reclamation project.

Adam Gase sucks and that team is super bare. I think Frank Reich would do wonders for Darnold with that oline as well.

His upside is more than any qb you'd get at 21. You're probably right he probably isn't viewed as highly in league circles compared to this forum. Only answer I got.

[AnAngryAmerican]

2 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Hear the Jets are looking for a late first for Darnold I'm shocked San Francisco and Indy aren't all over that.

Those teams have good decision-makers in Ballard* and Kyle/John, that’s why they aren’t all over that. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by AnAngryAmerican

[AnAngryAmerican]

3 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Nice post. Gotta keep the sense of humor up.

In the real world, Paton giving up that much and hanging his 1st GM position totally on the neck of Watson just ain't gonna happen. I loved his offer for Stafford. Basically Lock for Stafford and swap pick #9 for #41. This man will play pretty tight as far as picks and young players are involved.

Mega deals involving draft picks for star players rarely benefit the team giving up the picks. Just ask the Vikings about Herschel Walker. Three 1st's, three 2nds and change and bingo, new dynasty in Dallas.

 

This is a huge part of it. It’s Paton hanging his hat on ONE player, even if that is an elite player at the most critical position, and we all agree that Watson is precisely that. I don’t see him staking what would in effect be his tenure as GM, and they usually only get one shot, unlike HCs, on that.

[thebestever6]

9 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Those teams have good decision-makers in Grigson and Kyle/John, that’s why they aren’t all over that. 

Grigson sucked lol you mean Ballard

[AnAngryAmerican]

3 hours ago, ET80 said:

This is a bit of an overstatement - this time last year, this same franchise beat Buffalo in the playoffs and had a 24-0 lead on Kansas City in KC. Pretty much since that 1st Quarter, everything has gone downhill - a year and two weeks if you're looking at a calendar.

The loss of Hopkins led to a decay in the locker room, the loss of DJ Reader led to the defense completely falling out - still, the Texans we're 2-8 in one score games this season, that is an unsustainable stroke of bad luck. 

The last few years, the Texans were the 3/4 seed pretty consistently in the AFC. This collapse was sudden and without any sort of build up - it just happened.

I don't disagree with the majority of your premise - but I feel as if I need to correct this narrative.

And that’s all fair. I don’t think anyone is denying what Watson is and what he could mean to a franchise. I just look at that price and see too much. Now I have no doubt Paton will make a competitive offer, as he did with Stafford, but I can’t see him selling the whole farm for one prized steer. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

8 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Grigson sucked lol you mean Ballard

You’re correct. My bad. The point remains, however.