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What to do at QB?


AnAngryAmerican

What is your preference for the QB spot?  

56 members have voted

  1. 1. What is your preference for the QB spot?

    • Keep Drew Lock as the starter for 2021
      21
    • Draft a rookie in the 1st round and make him the starter
      15
    • Trade for/sign an established vet (Stafford, Wentz, Ryan)
      14
    • Trade for/sign a journeyman vet (Fitz, Tyrod) to compete with Lock
      6


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4 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

What about Big Ben if Steelers decide to move on? Everyone says we're a qb away. Maybe Lock can develop better under him too with minimal pressure.

Who exactly says we're a QB away? That opinion I would say is incredibly optimistic, and that's an understatement.

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15 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Who exactly says we're a QB away? That opinion I would say is incredibly optimistic, and that's an understatement.

I don't think we're a QB away from winning the SB. I do think we're a QB away from being a reliable playoff team, especially with Fangio's defensive coaching. 

Also worth considering the caliber of FA players you can attract with a QB in place. Finding the QB is the lynchpin that brings the rest into focus. We have a young offensive core, some solid defensive talent, cap space, and a promising GM. Getting the QB accelerates the fortunes of the team quite a bit, IMO.

We can certainly build the opposite way, the problem is a lot of young guys now may not be on cheap deals down the road. That balance always needs to be struck. 

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15 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

anyone buy this?

No. Michael Lombardi is a Patriots apologist and Belichick jock-sniffer who has routinely bashed the Broncos since we fired his boy Josh McDaniels.

Here is a story from a real journalist on the off-season including an honest assessment that most of us already know - the team is almost certain to bring in a veteran journeyman to compete with Lock. This isn’t the news the click-baiters and talk radio shockjocks want but it’s almost certainly the reality. 

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/sports/broncos/whats-next-for-von-kareem-jackson-justin-simmons-and-who-will-start-at-qb

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2 hours ago, broncos67 said:

I don't think we're a QB away from winning the SB. I do think we're a QB away from being a reliable playoff team, especially with Fangio's defensive coaching. 

Also worth considering the caliber of FA players you can attract with a QB in place. Finding the QB is the lynchpin that brings the rest into focus. We have a young offensive core, some solid defensive talent, cap space, and a promising GM. Getting the QB accelerates the fortunes of the team quite a bit, IMO.

We can certainly build the opposite way, the problem is a lot of young guys now may not be on cheap deals down the road. That balance always needs to be struck. 

I'd amend this to we're a good to great QB away from being a perennial playoff team.   A serviceable QB only, and we're likely stuck in mediocrity. 

But this is also where having Watson being 25 years old matters so much.   I was all-in on Stafford because he's good, and he might be great in the right situation - but we also needed 4+ years of his peak play to make the price worthwhile.   Watson's already a great, top 6 level QB.     Long after our picks are traded away, he'd still be great, and for the foreseeable future.  In today's NFL, playing great past age-35 is a realistic hope.   Watson can't keep trying to make hero plays, but with our OL upgrade on HOU's, and our supporting cast, that's entirely projectable.

And while the counter is that only rings matter - our window where our draft capital hurts our chances to get to the final stage and win, it's a LOT shorter than the window when Watson is a difference-maker, top-level QB.  That's only going to make the job easier long after the picks are spent and done.

The above holds true for other teams as well.   Some teams are further back than we are, which makes them less attractive to Watson.   Other teams are attractive to Watson, but don't have as much capital.


This hasn't reached the full range of sportsbooks, but this is telling.  If (and it's a HUGE if) NYJ/MIA are out of the running, and if (same caveat) Paton is willing to deal the package we've been discussing, then we're definitely in the top 2-3 bidders now.   Losing NYJ from there is huge, MIA would be next (obviously Paton has to be on board too, duh). 

Vegas isn't by any means perfect, but the point that we're now alongside MIA/CAR is no coincidence (although frankly SF should be higher given Watson's camp has OK'd them too, they just don't have nearly as much draft ammo).

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31 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I think Watson or Darnold will be Denver’s starting QB next season.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30170065/could-browns-jets-move-baker-mayfield-sam-darnold-fifth-year-option-deadline-looms

BTW - there's a really big change in the way 5th year options work now.  It's new as of the 2018 draft Rd1 class.  Basically - once you opt in for the 5th year - it's TOTALLY guaranteed.  Before, you only had a guarantee for injury, so as long as the player could pass a physical on March of that year, teams could walk away.  Also, there's no distinction between top 10 and 11-32 anymore - it's based on playing time, performance, and then it equates to the transition tag $ for that 5th year.


Why does this matter?  Well, for those who considered getting Darnold cheaply - you'd be getting him for 4.7M this year - but then you're likely opting in at 25M for 2022 - FULLY guaranteed.   So you're trading for him at 2 years, 30M - FULLY guaranteed, with no outs.  And then the 3rd year, you're talking about an extension or a franchise tag - but it has to be a 20 percent increase - so that's 30M.   


To be clear, I considered Darnold before Stafford and then Watson became available, but only as a cheap, Rd3 option.   With this news, man, that has such little appeal.  It's one thing to have a 1 year, sub-5M deal and the ability to walk away from the 2nd year, 20M commitment if Darnold couldn’t turn it around - but now the 2nd year is locked in, fully guaranteed - and it's 25M, not 20M.

 

I'm surprised Elway & co. were thinking on this 2 months ago, when Klis & Renck both alluded to this, along with Allbright, knowing how the option now works for the 2018 Rd1 draft class and going forward .

Edited by Broncofan
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The flip side - given teams knew about how the 5th year option works - if the FO interest in Darnold was legit in November - that speaks volumes to where they see Lock’s future.  
 

You don’t trade even a Rd3 pick for Darnold and commit 2/30M fully guaranteed if you think Lock has a serious chance of beating him.  1/5M with an option for 20M you can get out of for year 2, sure.   

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29 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Why does this matter?  Well, for those who considered getting Darnold cheaply - you'd be getting him for 4.7M this year - but then you're likely opting in at 25M for 2022 - FULLY guaranteed.   So you're trading for him at 2 years, 30M - FULLY guaranteed, with no outs.  And then the 3rd year, you're talking about an extension or a franchise tag - but it has to be a 20 percent increase - so that's 30M.   

You sure that's right almost as much as a franchise tag lol

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1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

You sure that's right almost as much as a franchise tag lol

The changes to the 5th year option guarantee and amounts are confirmed in multiple sources.   It probably explains why CLE & BAL want to extend both Baker & Lamar Jackson early - they have to lock in 5th year options at transition tag prices that are fully guaranteed once the team exercises it - not the following year.  
 

it’s a game changer to be sure when considering a trade for Darnold (again, Stafford & Watson are far, far, far more preferable, like not even close lol).  And it makes going after Darnold far riskier - and if the FO was serious about it in November as Lock, Klis & Albright all referenced - that speaks massive volumes about their long-term doubts on Lock. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

The flip side - given teams knew about how the 5th year option works - if the FO interest in Darnold was legit in November - that speaks volumes to where they see Lock’s future.  
 

You don’t trade even a Rd3 pick for Darnold and commit 2/30M fully guaranteed if you think Lock has a serious chance of beating him.  1/5M with an option for 20M you can get out of for year 2, sure.   

I think it might be less about Lock and more about how much Elway loves Sam Darnold. That rumor died pretty much immediately after he stepped down. 

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39 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

I think it might be less about Lock and more about how much Elway loves Sam Darnold. That rumor died pretty much immediately after he stepped down. 

That's a good alternate explanation.....disturbing though.   I mean, I'm one of those posters on record that a move for Darnold at the right price (3.8) was a move I could get behind - but that's when it was 1/5M, and the non-guaranteed 2nd year at 20M, that we could walk away from.  And then it would make a 3rd year viable with a franchise tag at 25M, if he delivered on the potential. 

Now, a team would be giving up a Day 2 pick AND they'd be likely locking into 2 years / 30M - FULLY guaranteed.   As much as Adam Gase has a lot to do with wrecking Darnold's last 2  years - there's a real risk the damage can't be easily undone at this stage, or that it will take more than a year to completely fix.   The whole appeal to Darnold was not just his ceiling, but also the minimal risk involved if it didn't work out.   Then add that the 2nd year (and then following tag money) goes up by a total of 10M (5M 2nd & 3rd year compared to the past)...man, that's a LOT of love Elway must have had (or a lot of mistrust in Lock, or a combo of both) to consider this, knowing the 5th year option is now fully guaranteed.

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