What to do at QB?

[Dr A W Niloc]

29 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

Where are you getting this information and why are you so certain it’s correct? 

     The SAMI numbers?  From a geek site, originally.  Months of reading profiles later, the evaluations still seem reasonable to me.  Notwithstanding the truism ("When everyone is thinking alike no one is thinking at all!"), there was precious little disagreement among the profiles.  It was a consensus of expert opinions so I don't know if "correct" is the best term.  Feel free to reproduce this research and draw up your own SAMI chart;  it's a useful exercise.  Be prepared to be surprised.

      For what it's worth, I will say this:  The last time we saw 4 QBs actually taken in the top half of a NFL draft the geeks (2018, Football Outsiders, in that case) were right on and the talking heads disastrously wrong.

[Dr A W Niloc]

Quote

Dr A W Niloc:
...should Denver take strong armed and fleet of foot Trey Lance (despite his average accuracy and rawness) at #9?

Quote

paul-mac:
Trey Lance is going at 3

     I'm going to mark you down as a "Yes".

[bMiller031]

3 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

By now it is evident that Trey Lance (SAMI: 5-3-4-1 in [arm] Strength-Accuracy-Mobility-Intelligence out of 5) will be available at #9.

 

1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Quantifying consensus. 

Translation:  If Justin Fields is available after Pick #3 should the Broncos trade up for him (and how much should they offer)?  Ditto if it's Mac Jones.

Assuming someone else trades up to take the fourth QB in the 2021 draft, should Denver take strong armed and fleet of foot Trey Lance (despite his average accuracy and rawness) at #9?

No, why is it evident that Trey Lance will be available at 1.9?  Certainly possible but no indication that it's a given. 

[Broncofan]

Honestly, if Lance is available, and it doesn't cost another 1st to move up (but say a 2022 Day 2 pick to move up with Detroit, for example) -  we should do it without hesitating.     Lock would play out 2021, and Lance would be ready in 2022, if Lock's not the answer (likely).    There are only 2 guys who are ready to play Week 1 - so that's not how we should look at the pick.   Does the guy have the elite ceiling and skills?   Yes.    Does he have the experience & competition vs. elite level college?  No.    Does he need more time developing first?   Absolutely.   But that's the combo that gets the love nowadays, and rightfully so.

Edited March 31, 2021 by Broncofan

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

   Does he need more time developing first?   Absolutely.   But that's the combo that gets the love nowadays, and rightfully so.

Seriously though, do you think this fan base has the patience required for QB development?

Sure hasn't been displayed lately.

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, AKRNA said:

Seriously though, do you think this fan base has the patience required for QB development?

Sure hasn't been displayed lately.

If it's a talent like his, absolutely.    For all the optimism with Lock, there were good reasons why he fell that far, even with QB being so valued.    We hoped the blemishes were fixable - they haven't so far.    It doesn't mean it can't be - but this level of time taken, without fixing those areas - means he's not going to be elite-ceiling, either.     

3 years ago, with an uncertain Mahomes taking over, and old man Rivers, and Carr as our competition, just being a decent, above-average QB would have been OK.    With Mahomes reaching this level of play and now Herbert - the bar for sustained contention requires a much higher ceiling.    In another division, if you end up with a Baker Mayfield result, it's probably good enough to win the division with a CLE-level talent team, for example.      In our division, it's a tough road ahead - so the bar has to be higher.   That higher bar is why Lock's being set aside as far as Plan A/B (Stafford and Watson/rookie Rd1 being explored).     It's not that Lock's a guarantee to fail - but his ceiling limits make moving on a reasonable plan for Paton to pursue.

Paton has a ton of job security.   He has no reason to want to look for reasons to upgrade Lock, if he believes.   His offer for Stafford, and the Broncos' interest in Watson pre-lawsuits, and now interest in the top 4 rookie RB's, indicates he's still on board with an upgrade, and for good reason IMO.    To match up in the AFCW, ending up with a Carr/Mayfield is likely only 3rd best.   You can still win the odd year, but for sustained division winner contention (which makes the path so much easier - Tampa's path will be cited, but no crowds and the lack of long-distance travel for them in 2021 is why most SB winning teams play at least 1, if not 2 home games if they play all 3 weeks pre-SB).

[Dr A W Niloc]

1 hour ago, bMiller031 said:

 

No, why is it evident that Trey Lance will be available at 1.9?  Certainly possible but no indication that it's a given. 

   A fair question. 

   First, we stipulate that Carolina is not wasting a #8 pick on a QB5.  Granted, Bridgewater is mediocre (PFF:24th, FPPG:25th) but the team will want to evaluate him in what we hope is a COVID-19 free year, playing more than three games with the team's offensive threat, RB Chris McCaffrey.  To say nothing of Teddy's $20M dead cap.  Even the talking heads have moved on from the notion that Atlanta will consider, of all things, a QB at #4.  Thus, Denver has a clear path after #3 except for interlopers trading up.

     No one argues QB4 Fields/Jones will survive this 4th-8th gauntlet.  After he's gone the NYGs (11th) and Eagles (12th) are possibilities but their numbers don't reek of desperation enough to make this jump.  It is unlikely New England would be interested in such an unbridled pivot.  So who's going to trade up to 5th-8th to take a QB5?  (Incidentally, what is the average expectation for the 5th best player taken at a position?  48th?)

     Trey's a decent QB but it's hard to find a home for a field cannon with run-of-the-mill accuracy and no manual.  I could make an argument for or against Denver taking Lance at #9, which is why I posed the question.

Edited March 31, 2021 by Dr A W Niloc

[rcpbawler]

I feel pretty confident 1-4 are QBs. If Atlanta doesn't pull the trigger at 4 (I don't think they will but Lance would be awfully tempting for them) then it will be someone else via trade up. The more days go by and the more I think about it, the more I'm hoping it's us. Carolina is obviously the top competition but they'd likely have to put together a huge package for an inter division trade, especially for a QB. I'd feel way better about a trade up with Fields there at 4 but wouldn't be upset if it were Lance either.

 

Either way, I think there is almost no chance QBs 1-4 are there at 9 and doubt Mac Jones (who I'd really have mixed feelings about) is either.

[Broncofan]

13 hours ago, rcpbawler said:

I feel pretty confident 1-4 are QBs. If Atlanta doesn't pull the trigger at 4 (I don't think they will but Lance would be awfully tempting for them) then it will be someone else via trade up. The more days go by and the more I think about it, the more I'm hoping it's us. Carolina is obviously the top competition but they'd likely have to put together a huge package for an inter division trade, especially for a QB. I'd feel way better about a trade up with Fields there at 4 but wouldn't be upset if it were Lance either.

 

Either way, I think there is almost no chance QBs 1-4 are there at 9 and doubt Mac Jones (who I'd really have mixed feelings about) is either.

The main reason why ATL wouldn't go QB at 1.4 is because their FO was given a mandate to rebuild on the fly - the owner Arthur Blank wants to win now, given his age.    It's crazy, because there's no obviously good short-term scenario that says Matt Ryan is still the answer when the Falcons address their roster holes and construction (they are so top heavy with aging guys who are on 2nd/3rd contracts as their best players, aside from Ridley).    

The smart long-term play is find your next QB - because Matt Ryan, while clearly on the decline phase (so a big no thanks for us on him), would probably help about 10-12 teams immediately even with declining play for 1-2 years (but then, the wall hits for good, and man, it's ugly when that happens - see Big Ben, Eli).  So he's a prime trade candidate in a situation where a win-now team loses their guy due to injury.   And a trade post-June 1 actually saves 2M overall (since 20M dead money accrues this year, and 20M accrues next year, not a 40M dead cap hit as with a cut).     He won't fetch much right now, and even 1 1st would be a major stretch with a QB crazy market - but clearing the cap hit, getting younger, and getting extra early draft capital  (even Day 2 helps) would help the Falcons so much to accelerate a rebuild - so long as they have their QBOTF in the fold.   But Blank's age and his wish to win now, combined with the talent available at 1.4....well, yeah, it's still a Q to watch for.   

If it was me, I'd go QB given where ATL is at roster-wsie, but it may not be a pure football long-term decision (which is always the best way to attack the draft, but doesn't always happen).

Edited April 1, 2021 by Broncofan

[bMiller031]

41 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The main reason why ATL wouldn't go QB at 1.4 is because their FO was given a mandate to rebuild on the fly - the owner Arthur Blank wants to win now, given his age.    It's crazy, because there's no obviously good short-term scenario that says Matt Ryan is still the answer when the Falcons address their roster holes and construction (they are so top heavy with aging guys who are on 2nd/3rd contracts as their best players, aside from Ridley).    

Going WR/TE at 1.4 would be gross negligence by ATL.  You have the 4th pick in a QB-heavy draft with a regressing 35yo QB. You HAVE to take that gamble while you're picking early. 

Who was the last top-of-the-draft skill guy that changed the trajectory of a franchise? They don't move the needle - Calvin Johnson had 1,300yds + 12 TDs in DET's 0-16 season.  Even if Pitts is NO Jimmy Graham and Chase is Andre Johnson 2.0 you're still better off taking Lance/Mac/Fields and hoping they're tier-one guys - but even if they have a Tannehill/Alex Smith level ceiling it's still a worthwhile risk. QB purgatory (being relegated to stopgaps, drafting tier-2+ QBs, castaways, etc.) is the worst place to be.  

W/all that said... here's to hoping ATL picks Chase 😆

[Broncofan]

36 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

Going WR/TE at 1.4 would be gross negligence by ATL.  You have the 4th pick in a QB-heavy draft with a regressing 35yo QB. You HAVE to take that gamble while you're picking early. 

Who was the last top-of-the-draft skill guy that changed the trajectory of a franchise? They don't move the needle - Calvin Johnson had 1,300yds + 12 TDs in DET's 0-16 season.  Even if Pitts is NO Jimmy Graham and Chase is Andre Johnson 2.0 you're still better off taking Lance/Mac/Fields and hoping they're tier-one guys - but even if they have a Tannehill/Alex Smith level ceiling it's still a worthwhile risk. QB purgatory (being relegated to stopgaps, drafting tier-2+ QBs, castaways, etc.) is the worst place to be.  

W/all that said... here's to hoping ATL picks Chase 😆

I wouldn’t pass up QB either.  The X factor though is Arthur Blank and his wish to win now.   Combined with loyalty to Matt Ryan.   Similar to Mara family and Eli Manning.  They should have been thinking QB 2 years sooner than they did.  
 

2018 maybe the G-men only get Darnold/Rosen but given Gettleman’s preference for athletes Josh Allen would have been possible too.   So yeah I agree but it’s more about what Blank lets the new GM do. 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Broncofan

[DiehardBronxFan]

On 3/31/2021 at 2:51 PM, Broncofan said:

If it's a talent like his, absolutely.    For all the optimism with Lock, there were good reasons why he fell that far, even with QB being so valued.    We hoped the blemishes were fixable - they haven't so far.    It doesn't mean it can't be - but this level of time taken, without fixing those areas - means he's not going to be elite-ceiling, either.     

3 years ago, with an uncertain Mahomes taking over, and old man Rivers, and Carr as our competition, just being a decent, above-average QB would have been OK.    With Mahomes reaching this level of play and now Herbert - the bar for sustained contention requires a much higher ceiling.    In another division, if you end up with a Baker Mayfield result, it's probably good enough to win the division with a CLE-level talent team, for example.      In our division, it's a tough road ahead - so the bar has to be higher.   That higher bar is why Lock's being set aside as far as Plan A/B (Stafford and Watson/rookie Rd1 being explored).     It's not that Lock's a guarantee to fail - but his ceiling limits make moving on a reasonable plan for Paton to pursue.

Paton has a ton of job security.   He has no reason to want to look for reasons to upgrade Lock, if he believes.   His offer for Stafford, and the Broncos' interest in Watson pre-lawsuits, and now interest in the top 4 rookie RB's, indicates he's still on board with an upgrade, and for good reason IMO.    To match up in the AFCW, ending up with a Carr/Mayfield is likely only 3rd best.   You can still win the odd year, but for sustained division winner contention (which makes the path so much easier - Tampa's path will be cited, but no crowds and the lack of long-distance travel for them in 2021 is why most SB winning teams play at least 1, if not 2 home games if they play all 3 weeks pre-SB).

This fan base will turn on the rookie in 8 games 

[Zukhyubern]

On 3/31/2021 at 11:58 AM, Dr A W Niloc said:

   A fair question. 

   First, we stipulate that Carolina is not wasting a #8 pick on a QB5.  Granted, Bridgewater is mediocre (PFF:24th, FPPG:25th) but the team will want to evaluate him in what we hope is a COVID-19 free year, playing more than three games with the team's offensive threat, RB Chris McCaffrey.  To say nothing of Teddy's $20M dead cap.  Even the talking heads have moved on from the notion that Atlanta will consider, of all things, a QB at #4.  Thus, Denver has a clear path after #3 except for interlopers trading up.

     No one argues QB4 Fields/Jones will survive this 4th-8th gauntlet.  After he's gone the NYGs (11th) and Eagles (12th) are possibilities but their numbers don't reek of desperation enough to make this jump.  It is unlikely New England would be interested in such an unbridled pivot.  So who's going to trade up to 5th-8th to take a QB5?  (Incidentally, what is the average expectation for the 5th best player taken at a position?  48th?)

     Trey's a decent QB but it's hard to find a home for a field cannon with run-of-the-mill accuracy and no manual.  I could make an argument for or against Denver taking Lance at #9, which is why I posed the question.

You're quite verbose for an NFL forum LMAO

[jsthomp2007]

18 hours ago, bMiller031 said:

Going WR/TE at 1.4 would be gross negligence by ATL.  You have the 4th pick in a QB-heavy draft with a regressing 35yo QB. You HAVE to take that gamble while you're picking early. 

Who was the last top-of-the-draft skill guy that changed the trajectory of a franchise? They don't move the needle - Calvin Johnson had 1,300yds + 12 TDs in DET's 0-16 season.  Even if Pitts is NO Jimmy Graham and Chase is Andre Johnson 2.0 you're still better off taking Lance/Mac/Fields and hoping they're tier-one guys - but even if they have a Tannehill/Alex Smith level ceiling it's still a worthwhile risk. QB purgatory (being relegated to stopgaps, drafting tier-2+ QBs, castaways, etc.) is the worst place to be.  

W/all that said... here's to hoping ATL picks Chase 😆

They love Matt Ryan here.  What they don't do is get him help upfront.  The Falcons should be the ones mocked to draft Sewell.  They have WRs.  They could use a TE, so PItts would not be a huge reach.  But, Matt Ryan can still play, and they don't need more weapons.  However, if they do go with more weapons i think that only benefits the Broncos with a chance to get Fields of Lance, if we go QB.  

[bMiller031]

3 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

They love Matt Ryan here.  What they don't do is get him help upfront.  The Falcons should be the ones mocked to draft Sewell.  They have WRs.  They could use a TE, so PItts would not be a huge reach.  But, Matt Ryan can still play, and they don't need more weapons.  However, if they do go with more weapons i think that only benefits the Broncos with a chance to get Fields of Lance, if we go QB.  

IMO, if any of the top 5 QBs are on the board, the only way to maximize the value of the pick is to either take a QB or look to trade back