Week 17 Games

[Leader]

Green Bay over Chicago (H)   -   But of course.
Miami over Buffalo (H)  
Baltimore over Cincinnati (H)
Cleveland (H) over Pittsburgh  
Minnesota over Detroit (H)   
New York Jets over New England (H)   
Dallas over New York Giants   
Tampa Bay (H) over Atlanta
Las Vegas over Denver (H)
Indianapolis (H) over Jacksonville
Los Angeles Chargers over Kansas City (H)
Arizona over Los Angeles Rams (H)
Seattle over San Francisco (H)
New Orleans over Carolina (H)
Tennessee over Houston (H)
Washington over Philadelphia (H)

Week 17 record:  12-4
Season ending record:   167-88

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by Leader

[FAH1223]

Go 49ers

[packfanfb]

Pulling for the Rams this week because I'm thinking long term. If we get the 1 seed, we're likely on a collision course to meet Tampa in the divisional round (not ideal) unless the 6 or 7 seeds can upset the Saints and/or Seahawks. So which teams have the best shot at doing that between the Rams, Bears and Cardinals? If the Bears get the 7, the Saints will walk through them without a problem. I also think either team handles the Cardinals. The Rams, assuming Goff is ready, probably have the best chance to go back to Seattle as the No. 6 and pull the upset. They were 1-1 against Seattle in the regular season and those common-division opponent games are usually toss ups. I'd love to see the Rams go into Seattle and upset them so we get the Rams at Lambeau and Tampa (who presumably will beat the NFCE team) goes to New Orleans. 

The Rams don't scare me at all in Green Bay. Goff literally won't be able to function in the cold weather and McVay hasn't impressed me lately. They have Donald and Ramsey on defense but that won't be enough to slow us down at home. Very confident Green Bay wins that game and then we get the winner of NO-TB at home in the NFCCG. 

Edited December 29, 2020 by packfanfb

[Refugee]

Goff is out with a broken thumb, Rams have been falling apart for weeks. I still think they can be dangerous but that’s true for any playoff team. I don’t know what the best matchups are, especially with the way teams have played in the final weeks. Eventually, you’re going to have to beat somebody to get to the big show in Tampa.

[incognito_man]

44 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

If we get the 1 seed, we're likely on a collision course to meet Tampa in the divisional round

I'll make that bet with you, too lol

we are not "likely" to face TB in the divisional round

[Packerraymond]

29 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I'll make that bet with you, too lol

we are not "likely" to face TB in the divisional round

How do you figure that they aren't the most likely opponent?

The 6/7 seed are either LA with a QB who has a broken thumb, ARI with a QB who's got a bad shoulder and knee, or the Bears. You see it likely that the Saints or Seahawks would be challenged by one of those 3?

Then the 5 seed Bucs face an NFCE squad with a losing record, a game in which they're favored in for sure.

They are definitely our #1 most likely playoff matchup if we win the #1 seed.

[packfanfb]

31 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I'll make that bet with you, too lol

we are not "likely" to face TB in the divisional round

You don't think so? If TB is the 5 seed, it would require an upset for us to see anyone different. 

[incognito_man]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

How do you figure that they aren't the most likely opponent?

likely means > 50% chance

we are more likely to face a team other than TB than we are to face TB

[Packerraymond]

Just now, incognito_man said:

likely means > 50% chance

we are more likely to face a team other than TB than we are to face TB

We are also more likely to face TB than any other individual team potentially in the field.

We're arguing adjective usage now.

[incognito_man]

7 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

You don't think so? If TB is the 5 seed, it would require an upset for us to see anyone different. 

Yes, definitely I think we are more likely to face someone other than TB than we are to face TB

Even if we ridiculously conservatively estimate a 75% chance for all 3 of those games the odds are (0.75)^3 = 42% we'd face TB. The games are more likely 60%, however = (0.6)^3 = 22% chance we'd face TB.

Edited December 29, 2020 by incognito_man

[incognito_man]

1 minute ago, Packerraymond said:

We are also more likely to face TB than any other individual team potentially in the field.

We're arguing adjective usage now.

No, we're not lol

People actually think we are MORE LIKELY to face TB than some other result. And that's just not accurate.

[snackattack]

I look at it this way.  If you could bet on one of the two happening, you would take the second scenario:

• 6 or 7 seed beating SEA or NO
• TB beating NFCE champ, and 6/7 seeds losing

We are most likely to play TB.

Edited December 29, 2020 by snackattack

[incognito_man]

This is a 3-team parlay bet. How often are generic 3-team parlays won? (rarely) Now factor in these are all relatively evenly matched playoff teams and it because even more unlikely all 3 games go as expected.

Look no further than last week. 538's "most confident" games: (would have lost a 3-team guess if you picked the Browns)

Chiefs - 88%

Ravens - 84%

Bucs - 83%

Browns - 82%

Bears - 78%

The week before, "most confident" games: (would have lost a 3-team guess badly this week)

Rams - 91%

Ravens - 90%

Steelers - 87%

etc. etc.

It's REALLY not that easy to think 3 games in any given week will go "as expected"

[incognito_man]

2 minutes ago, snackattack said:

We are most likely to play TB.

We are most likely to play someone other than TB

[snackattack]

Just now, incognito_man said:

We are most likely to play someone other than TB

we are most likely to play TB.  ha