wackywabbit Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 32 minutes ago, incognito_man said: After thinking this through I can understand a little more why PIT would take Option 1 below (all numbers from 538): (1) Bye week in week 17 + Home game vs CLE (77%) or BAL (23%) (depends on outcome of MIA/BUF) 65% chance to beat CLE 80% chance to beat BAL (2) Grind in week 17 + Home game vs IND 47% chance to beat IND Odds of moving onto Divisional Round: (1) BONUS BYE WEEK PLUS: (.77)*(.65) = 50% chance of beating CLE (.23)*(.80) = 18% chance of beating BLT 68% chance of moving on (2) No Bye Week PLUS: 47% chance of moving on 77% chance of getting 3 seed even with a win (BUF beats MIA) ~60% chance of #2 seed Buffalo winning in wild card round vs BAL = (.47)*(.77)*(.60) = 22% chance of having to play IN Buffalo in divisional round So you trade a 22% chance of traveling in Divisional for a 21% increased chance of winning wild card + a BYE It makes more sense when looking at matchups One of the key points here is that what seems like the most probably opponent for the Steelers in the wild card round, is Cleveland. I imagine playing a next week rematch against a team that you just saw go all out to try to beat you (while you aren't) is a significant advantage. Maybe they put in some terrible schemes just to mess with them. Pittsburgh 80% chance to beat Baltimore is wack though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, wackywabbit said: Pittsburgh 80% chance to beat Baltimore is wack though... It seems off, I agree. It was the odds from the Wednesday Dec 2nd game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe_is_the_best Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Yes the Steelers are risking the 2 seed, but if resting this week means playing better next week, it makes sense. Who cares if Buffalo is at home if you don't even get there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronjon1990 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Browns should forfeit the playoff position if they lose, regardless of other games results. Losing to Sam Darnold and Mason Rudolph in back to back weeks is like the pinnacle of unworthiness. My guess: Browns 28 Steelers 14 Mason Rudolph doesn't let that helmet come off once. Browns secure a playoff spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
43M Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Steelers are beat up with an aging QB who hasnt had a bye since week 4. The only thing they can potentially lose is a home game vs Buffalo, which isnt a big deal, especially this year. The Steelers woes on offense wont change regardless of who starts week 17. The only chance the Steelers have is if they start stretching the field like they did in the 2nd half vs Indy. Resting Ben and other key players is an easy call. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, 43M said: Steelers are beat up with an aging QB who hasnt had a bye since week 4. The only thing they can potentially lose is a home game vs Buffalo, which isnt a big deal, especially this year. The Steelers woes on offense wont change regardless of who starts week 17. The only chance the Steelers have is if they start stretching the field like they did in the 2nd half vs Indy. Resting Ben and other key players is an easy call. Agreed. Plus Buffalo is the best team in the NFL right now - very unlikely they lose to Miami, so if Pittsburgh played all their guys and Buffalo still won....ugh. Whereas traveling to Buffalo isn't far and is pretty much going to be the same weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 @ET80 Are you responsible for changing this thread title? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 17 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said: @ET80 Are you responsible for changing this thread title? Not me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 minute ago, ET80 said: Not me. I am sad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 6 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said: Yes, it is technically true that they are benching him. Whether it's for rest in a meaningless week 17 game is irrelevant! You should have led with this 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August4th Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Mason Rudolph throwing the GW pass in the last seconds to knock out the browns for the playoffs feels so cruel this needs to happen for the rivalry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Mason Rudolph throws a pick to Myles Garrett - and then then gets penalized for "leading with the helmet to initiate contact" would be good theater for all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NudeTayne Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Shanedorf said: Mason Rudolph throws a pick to Myles Garrett - and then then gets penalized for "leading with the helmet to initiate contact" and then gets so frustrated he drops an(other) forbidden-word-bomb, this time loud enough for everyone watching at home, would be good theater for all. 😯😯😯 I mean, I don't know if I would call that "good theater for all", as you put it, but you do you 🤷♂️. Edited December 30, 2020 by NudeTayne Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VigilantZombie Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 8 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said: Does PIT still have a path to the 2 seed? I thought they didn't. If Miami beats Buffalo and Pittsburgh beats Cleveland, Pittsburgh would be the 2 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ty21 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 12 hours ago, incognito_man said: this is shocking to me Miami is capable of beating BUF. It doesn't make any sense to me why PIT wouldn't try to get that #2 seed and host 2 playoff games for sure (if they win) unless Ben is injured? Ben is old and worn down. He’s catching some Z’s before playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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