Playoffs - Cleveland at Kansas City

[RedGold]

I don’t possibly see how anyone could see Allegretti, Niang, and Rankin(Durant as well if you want to add him).. and think that’s enough.   Sure we can keep signing cheap 30 year olds yearly and Mahomes can continue to turn below average play into good enough...  I’d rather make life easier on him and attempt to give him an OL that can control the game in the 4th.  
 

 

[onejayhawk]

Allegretti, Niang, and Rankin isn't everyone, but it's a good place to start. You also assume Kilgore, Reiter, and Remmer are all gone in free agency and that LTD does not return, but Fisher and Schwartz are back for at least a year. You have both OG and both OT, plus a swing OT. That's a donut line, but a good one.

We are not building an OL from scratch. In addition to five players competing for four starting jobs, we could re-sign Reiter or Kilgore. Durant is not a consolation prize. He looks to be a solid OG backup with future starting potential. Either Kilgore or Reiter may sign another year. That said, starting C is a potential issue. Starting OT and swing OT are also not an issue for 2021, but 2022 is another situation. Either Fisher or Schwartz could be done after next year. Drafting a high upside OT makes sense, much like we drafted Niang in 2020. None of this is high priority unless we have a significant change in status.

J

[kingseanjohn]

16 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

Allegretti, Niang, and Rankin isn't everyone, but it's a good place to start. You also assume Kilgore, Reiter, and Remmer are all gone in free agency and that LTD does not return, but Fisher and Schwartz are back for at least a year. You have both OG and both OT, plus a swing OT. That's a donut line, but a good one.

We are not building an OL from scratch. In addition to five players competing for four starting jobs, we could re-sign Reiter or Kilgore. Durant is not a consolation prize. He looks to be a solid OG backup with future starting potential. Either Kilgore or Reiter may sign another year. That said, starting C is a potential issue. Starting OT and swing OT are also not an issue for 2021, but 2022 is another situation. Either Fisher or Schwartz could be done after next year. Drafting a high upside OT makes sense, much like we drafted Niang in 2020. None of this is high priority unless we have a significant change in status.

J

So how do we get under the current projected cap to keep Reiter or Kilgore with our other needs? Also, LDT hasn’t played in a year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s done. As much as it sucks to say, Schwartz may be done. A man his size with back issues rarely works out. 

[RedGold]

I’m not really worried about the 2021 line,  it’s going to be what it is.    I’m not really assuming Reiter, Kilgore, and Remmer are gone.   They are just average, and I don’t really want to pay them anything above the min.   I’m looking 2-4 years down the road, where we don’t really have anyone.  I’m good with only 1 OL on days 1-2,  but it is a pressing need and we need to get youth into the system and coach them up.  

 

[onejayhawk]

3 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

So how do we get under the current projected cap to keep Reiter or Kilgore with our other needs? Also, LDT hasn’t played in a year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s done. As much as it sucks to say, Schwartz may be done. A man his size with back issues rarely works out. 

How did we sign Mahomes and Jones and Kelce? Re-signing Reiter seems to be optimal if we can afford it. However, your issue is a real one. Drafting a plug and play C is a much higher priority than OT or OG.

LDT may not be back, but he has technically not retired. Schwartz is not supposed to be ready for the playoffs, but nothing I have seen suggests he will not be ready for camp. Back issues are inherently serious, but this is also the best physical therapy on the planet. Even if he is done, Fisher and Niang have us covered for next season. 

I get drafting for the OL, but i do not see any reason to panic if that does not happen. Kelce is 31, a year younger than Schwartz. We also need to replace him sooner than later. Watkins is gone and a good chance Robinson as well. That does not even touch on th defense. There is a lot that must be addressed and OL is only one of them.

J

[kingseanjohn]

11 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

How did we sign Mahomes and Jones and Kelce? Re-signing Reiter seems to be optimal if we can afford it. However, your issue is a real one. Drafting a plug and play C is a much higher priority than OT or OG.

LDT may not be back, but he has technically not retired. Schwartz is not supposed to be ready for the playoffs, but nothing I have seen suggests he will not be ready for camp. Back issues are inherently serious, but this is also the best physical therapy on the planet. Even if he is done, Fisher and Niang have us covered for next season. 

I get drafting for the OL, but i do not see any reason to panic if that does not happen. Kelce is 31, a year younger than Schwartz. We also need to replace him sooner than later. Watkins is gone and a good chance Robinson as well. That does not even touch on th defense. There is a lot that must be addressed and OL is only one of them.

J

We're entering a VERY different cap situation. Before we can re-sign anyone, we're going to have to make some cuts along with handing out extensions and restructures. I think back loaded extensions is going to be the path we take.

The more I look, the less I think a plug and play center is there for us in this draft. I really think we may be looking at Daryl Williams starting at C next year with us drafting a OG. There's just more quality OG in this draft that can start right away. I was really happy we got Niang. I think he's our LT of the future. Until then, he'll play either side or swing OT if Schwartz is able to make a return.

I think Kelce has a good 2-3 years left. Even when his skills start to decline, he'll still be better than most TEs due to his work ethic and play style. We definitely need to upgrade the 2 and 3 spot though. I wouldn't hate drafting one of the top TEs in this draft but it all depends on how the board falls.

[onejayhawk]

This is all speculation at this point. In particular, the cap considerations of re-signing Reiter are not on the scale of re-signing Chris Jones. If it's a team priority, the FO will get it done.If not, there will be FA available, just like last year.

One thing is certain. When Reiter was injured, Kilgore played well, but there was no drama when Reiter returned. It's clear which player the staff prefers. The thought of Darryl Williams as starting C does not frighten me. He was a three year starter in the SEC. Such players rarely flop. However, if that were the direction the team is looking, I would anticipate an older FA singee to pair with him.

I am getting tired of hearing that Kelce has time left. That is not sufficient answer. Like Schwartz, things can change in a moment. A high upside TE is a priority on par with high upside OT.

J

Edited January 5, 2021 by onejayhawk

[RedGold]

but..... he does have time left.   and he actually has a long term deal that was just signed last year. Drafting a TE above Round 2 is just a total waste (unless the value is just crazy),  he's going to be a role player his entire rookie contract.   Schwartz and Fisher are both up after this year,  I'm sorry but TE is not even close to the same level of need as OT.     We do need to look at upgrading the #2 spot though. 

Also,  I think the staff views Williams as more of a Guard.    His film was excellent there,   he started dropping off draft boards once he got moved to Center.    He's a decent, versatile piece on the interior though.

 

[BigTrav]

Anyone worried that Pat effectively will have had a 3 week bye by game 1?

[onejayhawk]

2 minutes ago, BigTrav said:

Anyone worried that Pat effectively will have had a 3 week bye by game 1?

It's two bye weeks, even if it is almost three weeks between live snaps. I worry the team will spend a couple of drives working off the rust, like last year. Not that worried though. 

Darryl Williams is a piece to count in the offseason.  Yasir Durant is also going to get a long look. Rankin should be close to 100% by TC. With those three and Allegretti, you cannot make the case that we need an OG like you can that we need a C. However, it would make perfect sense to pick someone for the future. OT is more in flux, but we still have four bodies for two positions. Remmer could re-sign and we would have a fifth. Again, young blood is not a bad idea, but not a drop everything priority.

If we cannot re-sign Reiter or Kilgore, or sign someone comparable, then we will need a startable C from the draft. We did it successfully with Hudson, less successfully with Morse. Both times in round #2. I would prefer to avoid doing so again.

J

[Jakuvious]

13 hours ago, BigTrav said:

Anyone worried that Pat effectively will have had a 3 week bye by game 1?

Nope. Too much leadership on this team for that time to be misused. We've only lost once in week one since we hired Reid. We've won by double digits 4 straight years in week one. On top of how great Reid is off the bye. First round bye hasn't slowed us down the past two years at all. Even in '17, while we lost, I wouldn't say it was rust as much as just bad luck, that game.

There's really just no precedent for worrying about this team being game ready when the time comes. Getting some guys some rest and recovery time is far more important.

[BigTrav]

5 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

Nope. Too much leadership on this team for that time to be misused. We've only lost once in week one since we hired Reid. We've won by double digits 4 straight years in week one. On top of how great Reid is off the bye. First round bye hasn't slowed us down the past two years at all. Even in '17, while we lost, I wouldn't say it was rust as much as just bad luck, that game.

There's really just no precedent for worrying about this team being game ready when the time comes. Getting some guys some rest and recovery time is far more important.

Cool.

It might be worth mentioning we probably play Baltimore first. Does that change anything for you, given the stretch they've been on? Best points differential in the league too. 

If it's Indie, I have 0 worry

[RedGold]

Only worry I have is starting the game slow.   I fully agree with the rest,   But I don’t expect as to come out sharp this first game.  
 

I’m pretty sure every time we’ve played Baltimore the past two years they’ve been red hot and considered the best in the league.   They are scary,  but I wouldn’t say I’m freaking out about it.    
 

If Indy didn’t have Rivers,  they would scare the heck out of me 

[onejayhawk]

538 has new numbers out. 
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-guide-to-the-nfls-wide-open-wild-card-weekend/

Baltimore - 42.6%, 5th
Cleveland - 38.1%, 6th
Indianapolis - 24.5%, 7th
Tennessee - 57.4%, 4th

Because we play the lowest seeded survivor, it works out that Cleveland is the most likely first opponent.

Tennessee - 19.9%
Cleveland - 28.8%
Indianapolis - 24.5%
Baltimore - 26.8%

J

Edited January 8, 2021 by onejayhawk

[Jakuvious]

Neat.