Edge Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Ok. So we either get the Browns or the winner of Ravens/Titans as our first opponent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onejayhawk Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 Cleveland remains the most likely. Still using the 538 ELO numbers. Baltimore - 35.5% Cleveland - 38.1% Tennessee - 26.4% J Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 16 hours ago, onejayhawk said: Cleveland remains the most likely. Still using the 538 ELO numbers. Baltimore - 35.5% Cleveland - 38.1% Tennessee - 26.4% J So they basically calculate that Cleveland beating Pittsburgh is statistically more likely than Baltimore beating Tennessee. I wonder how they do this, given Tennessee's defense is abysmal and Baltimore has the best points diff in the league? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 16 hours ago, onejayhawk said: Cleveland remains the most likely. Still using the 538 ELO numbers. Baltimore - 35.5% Cleveland - 38.1% Tennessee - 26.4% J With their HC out I don’t think they’re gonna get it. Always a chance though 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 20 hours ago, KC_Guy said: Weird end of the game ... but it won't be Indianapolis. Not sure which outcome I favored ... but sticking it to Rivers again would have been nice ... We would have smashed Indianapolis. I think they'd do well enough on D, but not quite enough to overcome their offense which is a chore to watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Chiefer said: With their HC out I don’t think they’re gonna get it. Always a chance though I'd honestly have it... Baltimore - 45% chance Tennessee - 35% Cleveland - 20% Cannot see Browns beating Pittsburgh in Pitt in the playoffs. Only team in playoffs with a - points diff overall Edited January 10, 2021 by BigTrav Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 23 minutes ago, BigTrav said: I'd honestly have it... Baltimore - 45% chance Tennessee - 35% Cleveland - 20% Cannot see Browns beating Pittsburgh in Pitt in the playoffs. Only team in playoffs with a - points diff overall And the reason for that point differential? Pittsburgh and Baltimore lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Just now, Chiefer said: And the reason for that point differential? Pittsburgh and Baltimore lol Yep They do genuinely have a good RZ offense though and if we played them, I'd be worried of their run game. That's it though, I think Patrick would light them up for 45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onejayhawk Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 57 minutes ago, BigTrav said: So they basically calculate that Cleveland beating Pittsburgh is statistically more likely than Baltimore beating Tennessee. I wonder how they do this, given Tennessee's defense is abysmal and Baltimore has the best points diff in the league? Not exactly. Nate Silver's statistics site has game probabilities, but you could use any source. The numbers have changed slightly since Friday.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/games/?ex_cid=rrpromo It works like this. Baltimore - 57% Cleveland - 38% Cleveland loses - 62% Cleveland is not contingent. If they win, then they are our next opponent. So it's 38%. Baltimore is contingent on Cleveland losing, so the probability is the product of two things which both must happen. That's the win probability times the probability of Cleveland losing, 57% X 62% = 35.34%. Likewise Tennessee is 43% X 62% = 26.66%. Then you round to tidy things up. Before the Indianapolis game, thee things needed to happen for us to play Baltimore--all three other teams needed to lose. The probability of each event was better than 50%, but for all three to happen, the probability was only a 26.8%. J 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onejayhawk Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, BigTrav said: I'd honestly have it... Baltimore - 45% chance Tennessee - 35% Cleveland - 20% Cannot see Browns beating Pittsburgh in Pitt in the playoffs. Only team in playoffs with a - points diff overall You have Baltimore a 9 to 7 favorite, or 56.25% to win their game. The oddsmaker says 57% so that's quite close. Where you disagree is Cleveland, 20% vs 38%. I give Cleveland better chances because they have an edge on offense, with better running game and a better QB. Pittsburgh has a much better defense, but on balance I thing the Browns have good chances. J 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC_Guy Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 So it's BAL or CLE. Think I'd prefer CLE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onejayhawk Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 In case any one is interested, the forecast for KC next Sunday afternoon is 40s and sunny. J Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 32 minutes ago, onejayhawk said: In case any one is interested, the forecast for KC next Sunday afternoon is 40s and sunny. J Perfect. Always up for weather reports. Keep updated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, KC_Guy said: So it's BAL or CLE. Think I'd prefer CLE Yeah, their defense is terrible. Both teams can run, but Baltimore can also defend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onejayhawk Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 hours ago, BigTrav said: Yeah, their defense is terrible. Both teams can run, but Baltimore can also defend. About that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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