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2021 FA and Trade Talks


JetsandI

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Just now, JetsandI said:

Since Jets likely switch to zone defense do we need nickel CB?  Could use 2nd WLB or SS in that defense.

The thing with him is his versatility. Some think he can play safety as well. Used like Joyner when he played nickel & safety. It's just hard to say if JD would pass on a player like him. Saleh could be interested as well. 

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51 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said:

We have the #2 pick in a quality QB prospect draft and you wanna play the IF game. 

 

There are two strongly held view points on this thread and both sides are firmly fixed and can not be convinced of alternative.

First is that we will never get anywhere with Darnold, so trade him and use #2 for QB. 

The second is trade #2 for extra draft capital.   This could yield something like #8 and #39 this year and first round next year.  We would have 4 picks in first 39 this year, and 3 first rounds next year.  This covers a lot of holes in roster.  Key thing in my mind is to build infrastructure for either Darnold this year or for next years QB.  Building up an OL is key for QB.  Look what happened to Cinn this year with Burrows.

Here is why I think taking QB at #2 is risky.  I looked back on the QBs taken in first 5 picks since 2015 and the likely hood of QB bust exceeds good or great :

015
 - #1 Jameis Winston     Bust
 - #2 Marcus Marrieta    Bust

2016
 - #1  Jared Goff        Bust
 - #2  Carson Wentz      Bust

2017
 - #2  Mitch Trubisky    OK

2018
 - #1  Baker Mayfield    Good
 - #3  Sam Darnold       Bust

2019
 - #1  Kyler Murray      Great

2020
 - #1  Joe Burrow        Great
 - #2  Tua Tagovala      OK (early)

I also looked at where some great QBs were drafted.  Most were mid-1st round or later.

Arron Rogers     (2005,  24th overall,               1 QB ahead), 
Patrick Mahomes  (2017, 10th overall,                1 QB ahead),
Josh Allen       (2018,  7th overall,                2 QBs ahead), , 
Deshaun Watson   (2017, 12th overall,                1 QB ahead), 
Russel Wilson    (2012,   75th overall,              6th ahead QB)
Tom Brady        (2000,  199th overall,              6th QB ahead),
Lamar Jackson    (2018,  32th overall,               4 QBs ahead)

Amazing point is how many QBs were drafted ahead of these great ones.

Moral of the story is drafting QBs is total crapshoot.  Taken at top are likely to be busts and great

QBs can be had after middle middle of 1st round.
 

 

 

 

 

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43 minutes ago, Bronx Born and Raised said:

This covers a lot of holes in roster

Except the biggest hole - QB. Have you peeked at the potential QB class next year?  Is it any better?  Aside from Lawrence, we have the pick of all remaining QB’s.l this year. Next year we would have to settle for like 4th best QB?  If you don’t like Fields or Wilson, that I understand. Many do like them. But to suggest any QB may fail because if past history is not taking the whole picture into account as to why they were busts.

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2 hours ago, Bronx Born and Raised said:

I also looked at where some great QBs were drafted.  Most were mid-1st round or later.

Arron Rogers     (2005,  24th overall,               1 QB ahead), 
Patrick Mahomes  (2017, 10th overall,                1 QB ahead),
Josh Allen       (2018,  7th overall,                2 QBs ahead), , 
Deshaun Watson   (2017, 12th overall,                1 QB ahead), 
Russel Wilson    (2012,   75th overall,              6th ahead QB)
Tom Brady        (2000,  199th overall,              6th QB ahead),
Lamar Jackson    (2018,  32th overall,               4 QBs ahead)
 

Another thing the majority of these players and their respective teams had was an infrastructure already in place, which almost certainly helped ease them in to their situations.  

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2 hours ago, xrade said:

Except the biggest hole - QB. Have you peeked at the potential QB class next year?  Is it any better?  Aside from Lawrence, we have the pick of all remaining QB’s.l this year. Next year we would have to settle for like 4th best QB?  If you don’t like Fields or Wilson, that I understand. Many do like them. But to suggest any QB may fail because if past history is not taking the whole picture into account as to why they were busts.

Coming into this year the prospective draft class was Lawrence and a bunch of Jags. Wilson jumped up from like a third round pick, Lance and Mac jones were nowhere close to first round grades either. 

Last year Burrow went number one overall after an incredible season that boosted his stock way up. 

Nearly every year "flavor of the week" hype boosts the stock of the QB prospects. People just get infatuated with the shiny new toy and wind up over hyping them. That's why some many top QBs off the board end up busting.

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10 minutes ago, drew39k said:

Coming into this year the prospective draft class was Lawrence and a bunch of Jags. Wilson jumped up from like a third round pick, Lance and Mac jones were nowhere close to first round grades either. 

Last year Burrow went number one overall after an incredible season that boosted his stock way up. 

Nearly every year "flavor of the week" hype boosts the stock of the QB prospects. People just get infatuated with the shiny new toy and wind up over hyping them. That's why some many top QBs off the board end up busting.

I don’t disagree. But Wilson played well with  a less than stellar supporting cast. Some of the throws he made were NFL quality. He did not look good because of elite talent around him. He looked good because he is good.

QB is a huge gamble, yet a necessary one. If you don’t succeed, you keep searching. I firmly agree that having the infrastructure in place is imperative. But we can do that at the same time as getting that QB. What do we really need on O ATM?  2 iOL? Maybe a TE and a RB?  Is there any doubt some, if not all, will be addressed in the draft, especially at the uber critical OL spots?

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2 minutes ago, xrade said:

I don’t disagree. But Wilson played well with  a less than stellar supporting cast. Some of the throws he made were NFL quality. He did not look good because of elite talent around him. He looked good because he is good.

QB is a huge gamble, yet a necessary one. If you don’t succeed, you keep searching. I firmly agree that having the infrastructure in place is imperative. But we can do that at the same time as getting that QB. What do we really need on O ATM?  2 iOL? Maybe a TE and a RB?  Is there any doubt some, if not all, will be addressed in the draft, especially at the uber critical OL spots?

Wilson certainly looked good. I'm not denying that. But he looked good against a very weak schedule made even weaker with the amount of players that couldn't play due to covid issues. It was also an incredibly unusual season in that there were little to no fans which leads to a much more calm and easy to navigate offense.( There's no way to know how he handles the in game atmosphere created by big time crowds) Practices were also much different, what kind of impact did that have on opposing defenses ability to prepare?

Like I said, Wilson looked good, but there are so many more questions this year than most. There's no proper combine or today to help answer them . We have a team that needs help all over the field notably including the entire o line, the rb position and the tight end positions. This is not the year to be taking a MASSIVE gamble when we could get a haul in a trade down and we have a young talented qb that has shown flashes of being good despite absolute trash around him. And again, I'm beating a dead horse, but if he sucks like some of you expect, we will be in a tremendously better position to bring in a rookie QB next off season.

Rookie QB paired with rookie Head coaches almost never work.

Rookie QBs with **** offensive lines almost never work.

Rookie QBs with no running game almost never work.

Why does it make sense to think Wilson/fields/Lance are some kinda of magical wonderkid that will buck all those trends?

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35 minutes ago, xrade said:

I don’t disagree. But Wilson played well with  a less than stellar supporting cast. Some of the throws he made were NFL quality. He did not look good because of elite talent around him. He looked good because he is good.

QB is a huge gamble, yet a necessary one. If you don’t succeed, you keep searching. I firmly agree that having the infrastructure in place is imperative. But we can do that at the same time as getting that QB. What do we really need on O ATM?  2 iOL? Maybe a TE and a RB?  Is there any doubt some, if not all, will be addressed in the draft, especially at the uber critical OL spots?

But you are implying this is a 1 year rebuild ... getting all offensive holes filled in 1 draft.  If you use the #2 on the QB, there is a ripple effect that you start filling other positions further down in draft where the quality is lower.  If you buy into a 2 year rebuild you can trade down .... pick up 1st and second this year, and first next year.  This is year you add 2 OL, a top receiver, and hopefully 2 CBs in first 66 picks.  And next year you have 3 first rounders. A QB you add next year.  With 3 first should be a lot of draft/trade options. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Bronx Born and Raised said:

But you are implying this is a 1 year rebuild ... getting all offensive holes filled in 1 draft.  If you use the #2 on the QB, there is a ripple effect that you start filling other positions further down in draft where the quality is lower.  If you buy into a 2 year rebuild you can trade down .... pick up 1st and second this year, and first next year.  This is year you add 2 OL, a top receiver, and hopefully 2 CBs in first 66 picks.  And next year you have 3 first rounders. A QB you add next year.  With 3 first should be a lot of draft/trade options. 

 

This is the route I prefer to take. For some reason this forum is enamored with Wilson, which is understandable. But he’s clearly being way overhyped at this point. No one was talking about this kid last year and now people are saying he’s a way better prospect than Darnold was (lol) Darnold was hyped like crazy from the Rose bowl to the day he was drafted. Like someone said above, he’s the shiny new toy, I personally would rather add Fields if we are set on drafting a QB.

Build the team then add the QB. Another Zach Wilson will emerge. I have zero interest in attempting what we were supposed to do with Darnold again. I know it’s a new regime, but I don’t want to start Wilson from day 1 and you know because he’s the second pick in the draft he will see the field immediately. If we do draft Wilson, keep Sam and let him start the season or get a vet in there.

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