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BDL Discussion Thread 2021


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Just now, MD4L said:

Yeah I remember not being the biggest fan of Herbert and dramatically changing my mind within a month of play. It’s like that every year.

Halfway through the year people were saying Justin Jefferson wasn’t the best rookie WR. But he closed out strong and made things happen progressively changing from guy to account for to perhaps most dangerous receiver on the roster. The change in thought processes part of the intrigue.

I definitely went back and forth on Herbert. Had he fallen to me I would've drafted him. At 5, I couldn't justify passing on Wilson. Maybe I'm wrong about him and he doesn't turn into a great QB. Maybe I'm not wrong and he does. He appears to have the talent and NY has appeared to make good coaching hires. But until he is drafted, who knows.

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1 minute ago, wwhickok said:

I definitely went back and forth on Herbert. Had he fallen to me I would've drafted him. At 5, I couldn't justify passing on Wilson. Maybe I'm wrong about him and he doesn't turn into a great QB. Maybe I'm not wrong and he does. He appears to have the talent and NY has appeared to make good coaching hires. But until he is drafted, who knows.

Saleh was able to bring some SF offensive personnel with him so the scheme fit should help. What they do with the talent around him in the upcoming years will obviously make a major impact on what happens in Zach’s career.

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4 minutes ago, MD4L said:

I know if I draft someone with capital which is that significant I am definitely using the next 4-5 seasons to continually assure that person is developed properly with talent.

Yes, but you are smart and competent. Very few NFL teams fall into that Venn diagram and I don't think it's smart to bet on it when evaluating prospects.

And to be a little more generous to NFL teams, there are only so many hours and so many reps they can give to developmental guys. Coaches aren't going to hold a guy's hand for four years while they grow up and develop as players. It's harsh, but if a guy isn't producing like a top pick by year 3, it's time to move on and look elsewhere, even if he's still playing well. Don't be the team that pays franchise QB money to Jared Goff then trade him for a huge cap hit when he...plays exactly how he always has.

1 minute ago, MD4L said:

Yeah I remember not being the biggest fan of Herbert and dramatically changing my mind within a month of play. It’s like that every year.

Halfway through the year people were saying Justin Jefferson wasn’t the best rookie WR. But he closed out strong and made things happen progressively changing from guy to account for to perhaps most dangerous receiver on the roster. The change in thought processes part of the intrigue.

Agreed with all of this. I thought Herbert was the clear No. 2 QB in last year's class after Tua's injury, people **** on him for a year and a half while still acknowledging he was going to be an early pick, then he comes out and has one of the most impressive rookie seasons of the past 8 years.

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22 minutes ago, bcb1213 said:

Having watched fields he does seem to be the one read then run type. He looked better in the championship game going through progressions but he didn't do it during most of his career just from my vantage point    could he be coached up and improve. Absolutely.  But he does share those type of traits with many college QBs who haven't succeeded 

He could be a volitale guy with INTs. That’s fine early in his career. It sounds like he’ll need to be coached up a bit more which is respectable. He only has 21-23 ish starts so it’s understandable he’s got to improve a little more with decision making. He’s got a dynamic physical skill set so perhaps within his early career his coach makes RPOs frequently while allowing him to develop and maybe breakou ala Josh Allen after 2 or 3 years starting in the NFL.

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We started this draft with 2 goals in mind.  1) fix the oline and 2) draft high ceiling players that fell bc of covid or other circumstances that caused a perceived drop in their value

1st round - Rashawn Slater - OT

We couldn't pass up on Slater. If it weren't for Sewell, Slater would be considered the generational OT of this draft.  Yeah there has been talk of whether he sticks at tackle or ends up at center or guard.  But that is great position flexibility right there, to be potentially elite at any position on the oline.   This is the pick we wanted to set up the rest of our draft with.  

1st round - Christian Darrisaw - OT

We went back and forth with the idea of trading up and ultimately thought Darrisaw would not fall to us at 2.5, so we pulled the trigger to land him.  We felt this was not only the safest pick (as it provided us LT security in case Slater gets moved off of that position), but he arguably had the best season for a tackle in college with the exception of Sewell in 2019.  

3rd round - Trey Smith - OG

With this pick we used our goals as the driving force.   We already landed our 2 big boppers on the end of the line so we wanted to focus on the interior.  With Trey Smith we felt that his blood clot issue was the only real reason he dropped from a potential first round projection.  He has had 2 healthy seasons since the blood clots, so we felt his value was higher than the pick and his ceiling was also higher than the other guards that were available

3rd round - Kyle Trask - QB

Here is the shocker that no one liked.  Now let's look past the fandom for a minute, our team is shaky at best at QB.  Yeah we have LJ, but everyone seems to hate him, so we have been looking to move to a more traditional QB while hoping LJ turns it around.  In comes Trask.  He will be a 2nd to 3rd round pick and could conceivably take over for Big Ben or Brady.  That would be huge for us as we know he will thrive on those teams and become a really good starter in the NFL.  

4th round - Marvin Wilson - INT

This was my favorite pick of the draft despite what others thought.  I watched Marvin Wilson for years at FSU, id like to think I have a fairly good grasp on evaluating them more than the other players in the draft.  I fully believe Big Marvin is a late first to mid first round talent.  Between Covid lockdowns and not having spring practice or summer camp, Marvin gained a bunch of weight and came into camp well out of shape.   To add to that he lost all of his motivation to play bc of things that transpired with the coach and world events.   Marvin was going to be a first round pick before he dropped as a result of the things I listed (which led to his bad play).   Now with those removed, Marvin should easily return to glory and a solid first round talent more like Vita Vea imo.  

5th round - Jay Tufele - INT

We wanted insurance and depth at DT just in case Wilson ws drafted by a team that wants to being him along slowly instead of syart him right away.  With Tufele we get that guy.  He was well on his way a first round grade (at worst second round) before he sat at the year bc of covid.  Not playing and a poor pro day dropped his value but we believe it was more rust and being away from football for a year.   This should again be a steal a few years from now.  

6th round - Hamsah Nasirildeeen - S

HS was another FSU guy that has slid in mock drafts from what we believe is mostly due to his injuries.  He came back from and played a couple games in 2020 and lit it up.  We think his true value is going to higher than where we drafted him, especially in a weak saftey year.  

7th round - Dylan Moses - LB

This pick we actually think might turn out to be one of the best one in the BDL draft in regards to value.  He was widely considered a first round talent heading into 2020 and has since plummeted on draft boards due to poor play, injury concerns, and mobility issues during his final season at Bama.  I read a lot that teams were concerned that he looked slower and not himself during the 2020 season (after missing a year dur to injury).  Turns out he tore his meniscus week 3 and played the rest of the season with it.   I mean that will be the cause of those issues.  He is a sure fire first round talent irl so this seems like a steal of the century to us if he heals fully and gets back to playing like he did before. 

7th round - Aaron Banks - OG

Banks was a no brainer for us.  We needed a G late and the two we had above him were taken right before us.  He provides some good upside depending on what team drafts him.  

7th round - Stone Forsythe - OT

Pure lottery ticket.  Heard a lot lately that teams love his length and pass blocking.  He could move up a lot on draft day.   Fingers crossed with this one.  

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I think with Fields specifically I've seen him go through progressions fine on occasion so that makes me think that it's absolutely a skill he can develop. But the Ohio State system is designed around the WRs and them just being better than everyone and finding their way open. So the system is designed for him to linger on targets a bit more because it's designed around the WR out-talenting the guys around them. And quite frankly it works a lot of times, especially when you're playing bottom feeder times with no NFL-level DBs like Maryland (sad turtle face) and when you've got multiple NFL and likely first round caliber WRs.

Edited by rackcs
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2 hours ago, Blue said:

Zach Wilson is a one-year wonder who only "broke out" during a year when offensive play as a whole was up and playing against a piss-poor schedule. Trey Lance has played 16 games in his career at the FCS level, only one in the past year. Justin Fields left Georgia rather than try to beat out Jake Fromm and comes from a program and scheme with a very, very long history of failing to prepare quarterbacks for the NFL. Mac Jones looked like trash last year, then excelled (much like Zach Wilson) during a year when offensive play as a whole was up and he had an enormous talent advantage around him on offense over nearly everyone he played against, including the Heisman Trophy winner at receiver.

On top of all that, virtually none of these QBs pass the eye test in my book. Many of them are still raw mechanically. Wilson has flashes but makes bad decisions with the ball that he wasn't punished for this season like he was in the past because, again, bad competition. Lance needs a year to develop better pocket presence. Fields has subpar accuracy and touch, and I don't think he reads the field well at all (I know, a big shocker for a QB from the Urban Meyer offensive scheme /s). Mac Jones doesn't have a single standout physical trait, and he doesn't go before Day 3 with a Hawaii logo on his helmet instead of Alabama.

There is an absolute ****-ton of evidence to support it. The NFL is just so desperate for quarterback talent that they evaluate quarterbacks on a totally different scale from any other position to try and talk themselves into thinking they see something other people don't. If you don't believe that, take a gander at how many first-round QBS from 2009 on are still with the teams that drafted them. Maybe one of these guys surprises me, but I'm hugely pessimistic on anybody from this class besides Lawrence and Lance panning out as anything more than a career backup.

EDIT: Probably worth adding that yes, this is just my opinion, but I feel pretty strongly about how bad this class is. I thought the 2018 QB class was hot garbage too and so far they haven't really proved me wrong.

giphy.gif

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2 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said:

7th round - Dylan Moses - LB

This pick we actually think might turn out to be one of the best one in the BDL draft in regards to value.  He was widely considered a first round talent heading into 2020 and has since plummeted on draft boards due to poor play, injury concerns, and mobility issues during his final season at Bama.  I read a lot that teams were concerned that he looked slower and not himself during the 2020 season (after missing a year dur to injury).  Turns out he tore his meniscus week 3 and played the rest of the season with it.   I mean that will be the cause of those issues.  He is a sure fire first round talent irl so this seems like a steal of the century to us if he heals fully and gets back to playing like he did before. 

In regards to Moses specifically, I never saw a first round talent on the tape even if the few games he played before this season. I think he was just a big Bama recruit who got injured before his potential "breakout" season two years ago. So this hype had in the first. But on tape I don't think I ever saw a guy who should be sniffing the first. I do think he's got tools and getting him in the 7th was fine. But hype was the only thing that had him as a first rounder before the season in my mind.

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It's yet TBD whether Field's slow processing and holding onto the ball too long are his own fault or a byproduct of the offense that OSU runs, which is predicated on playaction passes, bootlegs, and flood concepts looking to hit on the intermediate and deep passes.

For the record, Deshaun Watson was dinged for the same things coming out (half field and flood concept reads)...as were other busts to be fair.

Anyone who saw Haskins play would have been the first to say that a good portion of his success was predicated on RAC opportunities from guys like Campbell and McLaurin on crossing routes vs. Cover 3 and man coverage and he struggled consistently on intermediate and downfield passing.

For the record, this is my major knock on Mac Jones as well. Dude did fine on the deep balls (easy with Smith and Waddle IMO) and great on the under 8 yard routes, but was pretty underwhelming on the 10-18 yard throws, especially comebacks and across the middle on routes like posts and digs.

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1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

For the record, Deshaun Watson was dinged for the same things coming out (half field and flood concept reads)...as were other busts to be fair.

I foolishly have a post in the Texans forum saying I expected him to be Mark Sanchez lite early in his NFL career.

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2 hours ago, Blue said:

Zach Wilson is a one-year wonder who only "broke out" during a year when offensive play as a whole was up and playing against a piss-poor schedule. Trey Lance has played 16 games in his career at the FCS level, only one in the past year. Justin Fields left Georgia rather than try to beat out Jake Fromm and comes from a program and scheme with a very, very long history of failing to prepare quarterbacks for the NFL. Mac Jones looked like trash last year, then excelled (much like Zach Wilson) during a year when offensive play as a whole was up and he had an enormous talent advantage around him on offense over nearly everyone he played against, including the Heisman Trophy winner at receiver.

On top of all that, virtually none of these QBs pass the eye test in my book. Many of them are still raw mechanically. Wilson has flashes but makes bad decisions with the ball that he wasn't punished for this season like he was in the past because, again, bad competition. Lance needs a year to develop better pocket presence. Fields has subpar accuracy and touch, and I don't think he reads the field well at all (I know, a big shocker for a QB from the Urban Meyer offensive scheme /s). Mac Jones doesn't have a single standout physical trait, and he doesn't go before Day 3 with a Hawaii logo on his helmet instead of Alabama.

There is an absolute ****-ton of evidence to support it. The NFL is just so desperate for quarterback talent that they evaluate quarterbacks on a totally different scale from any other position to try and talk themselves into thinking they see something other people don't. If you don't believe that, take a gander at how many first-round QBS from 2009 on are still with the teams that drafted them. Maybe one of these guys surprises me, but I'm hugely pessimistic on anybody from this class besides Lawrence and Lance panning out as anything more than a career backup.

EDIT: Probably worth adding that yes, this is just my opinion, but I feel pretty strongly about how bad this class is. I thought the 2018 QB class was hot garbage too and so far they haven't really proved me wrong.

I thought I was the only Wilson hater here. I should have known that the other was my alter-ego

Spider Man Reaction GIF

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Just now, MD4L said:

I foolishly have a post in the Texans forum saying I expected him to be Mark Sanchez lite early in his NFL career.

True story, in my final mock draft of the off-season, I mocked Garrett to the Browns at 1 and then Watson at #12 with him. They traded #12 to the Texans who selected him there. :) 

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Just now, MWil23 said:

True story, in my final mock draft of the off-season, I mocked Garrett to the Browns at 1 and then Watson at #12 with him. They traded #12 to the Texans who selected him there. :) 

Great prospect in my eyes (we drafted him and had early success with him) but the half-read, low velocity of his passes in the scouting critique almost baited me into not thinking he could be a long term starter based on his athletic ability.

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22 minutes ago, MD4L said:

He could be a volitale guy with INTs. That’s fine early in his career. It sounds like he’ll need to be coached up a bit more which is respectable. He only has 21-23 ish starts so it’s understandable he’s got to improve a little more with decision making. He’s got a dynamic physical skill set so perhaps within his early career his coach makes RPOs frequently while allowing him to develop and maybe breakou ala Josh Allen after 2 or 3 years starting in the NFL.

Yup could see it but he's gonna need the right situation. A place where he doesn't have to start right away would be ideal. All the physical tools are there, we just will see now if he can get the mental aspects of the game.  Was my huge concern with him that he'll end up being Trubisky 

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