Where would you rank Jonathan Taylor?

[diamondbull424]

3 hours ago, iknowcool said:

Gus Edwards is a nice back but he's never had more than 144 carries in a season and he's a complete non-factor in the pass game.  Easy to achieve good efficiency with such a low volume, especially when your QB is Lamar Jackson.  Heck, 30-year old Mark Ingram had his 2nd best seasonal YPC ever (5.0) playing for them last year.  Gus doesn't belong in this conversation.

Yet that 5.0 lines up very well with his 5.1 and 4.9 from 2016 & 2017. 2018 Ingram came back halfway through the year from suspension and all players who have done this typically see their numbers dip (because they’re not in legit game shape), but even then he put up 4.7 YPC at 29. So your seeming supposition that 5.0 is some sort of career outlier makes little sense. It lines up perfectly with his averages the prior 3 seasons of his career with the Saints. Unless we’re also arguing that any RB producing for the Saints shouldn’t have their efficiency numbers considered too...

With regard to the Lamar effect, that’s largely irrelevant in our offense now. At least not any more relevant than a RB running behind an explosive passing attack. CEH for example isn’t going to be running through 9 man boxes, but more likely will see 7 man boxes because the defense is far more threatened by the passing attack. Greg Roman pass concepts that have us passing out of 22 personnel with a FB lined up in the slot.. isn’t challenging the defense to NOT put 9 and 10 in the box. Thus the difference between a Kamara playing behind a great passing attack with Brees, Ronald Jones running within an attack that has produced 5000 passing yards or has Tom Brady, etc, etc... is going to be a factor largely the same. There is a moment’s hesitation between “are they passing or running” the same as “does Lamar have it or does the RB have it”... only with increased personnel within the box to play more roles. The Lamar effect simply adds the efficiency to our rushing attack that puts in on the level with a quality passing attack, nothing absurdly more. As displayed by the fact that 31 year old Mark Ingram fell off by nearly a full YPC like any RB that has fallen of before. It doesn’t ALWAYS hit at 30, it simply hits hard when it does hit.

In terms of Gus and your low volume argument, true. But he’s still 19th in rushing, with said volume. He also had 12.5 a/g in his rookie season as ‘the guy’ to close out his rookie season and still maintained his averages with normal volume. But his efficiency numbers would, with high volume place him in as a surefire top 5 back, if they were established under high volume conditions... which isn’t me saying he IS a top 5 back, but that if ‘x RB’ produced Gus YPC numbers and the rest of his advanced numbers with top 5-10 usage, they would undeniably be a top 5 back. The fact that Gus doesn’t have such high volume production, should definitely lower his standing amongst the top backs in the NFL. He wouldn’t be talented enough IMO to maintain such efficiency if he were given Derrick Henry volume... which is probably one of the few examples of a guy who can marry both that level of efficiency with that level of volume... other than Nick Chubb, who is also a top 5 RB. I’m not stupid, nor homer enough to ever blink Gus into their level of back. But his efficiency numbers coupled with medium low volume should absolutely put him in a top 25 conversation of RBs, a place where it’s not absurd to claim he’s got a top 20 RB argument. Plenty of other backs have had medium low volume and not produced the same as Gus has.

[diamondbull424]

4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Yeah, that’s nice and all but I don’t buy it. From what I’ve seen Mixon is better and more talented. 

With Frank Pollack coming back this year, I would imagine this will no longer be “argued” (Mixon lead the AFC in rushing under Pollack in only 14 games). 

True. Mixon is also younger than Gus... not that age at the RB position always matters, since Ray Rice broke down at 26. But point is, I have no doubt that Mixon is the more talented back. Though I also find Gus to be more talented than some of these other RBs listed as “easily” above him by certain posters. These lists are always a combination between talent, volume, efficiency, and ‘what have you done for me lately’. Last season Mixon and Gus had the same AV (PFR) and this season obviously, isn’t a fair judgement of Mixon. When healthy and if given a legit OL, Mixon is perhaps a top 5-10 back. Same way when healthy and if given a legit OL Saquan is probably the best RB in the NFL... but in the case of both runners, we’ve yet to see such a scenario. Though perhaps next season is the year where that becomes the case. Both the Giants and Bengals have an opportunity to add some quality pieces to their OL for their young QBs and RBs with this draft class.

Could easily lead to career years with both RBs.

[ASmithFan1010]

On 1/16/2021 at 3:56 PM, diamondbull424 said:

All the ones in bold are most certainly not better than Gus. Like the ones in the top half paragraph are particularly laughable. Some are only better if you’re going off of bulk production.

The ones in strikethrough can all be argued. Personally I’d rank Drake, Damien into the top 20. All the other names I’d have on the same tier as Gus, though I think he’s either proven more in general OR his availability/production combo puts him in contention. So considering all that, I’m taking Gus in that area.

So he’s top 20-25, for sure IMO. Any of the ones I strikethrough I could easily see listed above Gus and I would have no problem with it. However at worse, even if someone saw those RBs differently, that’s 25 RBs that could potentially be placed above him with the difference being “arguable” for many of them; like whether we’re talking advanced metrics, film/ability/talent, production over the last three seasons, etc. these can be argued.

So had I said “easily top 20” or “surefire top 20” as the other poster inserted, then sure you’d have a case for claiming Edwards inclusion was “absurdity”. But considering you’re putting RBs above Edwards for career achievement awards and not actual ability and showings, I have to question how often you’ve watched Gus as well as watched some of those other RBs you have “unquestionably” ranked ahead of him.

I was way too into fantasy football mode when I made the list and I didn't put as much thought into the list as I should have.  You're completely, right.  I should not have tried to name like 40 RB's off the top of my head.  Conner/Gaskins/Mike Davis should be thrown out.  

[QUOTE]So had I said “easily top 20” or “surefire top 20” as the other poster inserted, then sure you’d have a case for claiming Edwards inclusion was “absurdity”.[/QUOTE]

Why would adding a qualifier like easily or surefire make it any different?  You said he was a top 20 back.  You listed 18 in the quoted post + said Mixon was better which means he would be the 20th back.  It is an absurd opinion because you have to value him above players like Mosert and Robinson who have proven they can excel as a lead back.  Edwards had a Y/A of 4.5 when he received 10+ carries in 2020.  He has always run behind a great offensive line (until Yanda retired), has a cheat code QB, and doesn't have to handle a full-workload.  I'm guessing that most people would rate him closer to a top 30-35 back then a top 20-25 back.  He is a high-end #2 RB and is viewed as such.  Here is a quick argument to show there are arguments for the players you ranked ahead of him, too.

Gus Edwards vs David Johnson

Yards per Game:   45.2 vs 57.6

Yards/Attempt: 5.0 vs 4.7

Yards per game (catching): 8.11 vs 26.2

Yards per Catch:  14.3 vs 9.5

Offensive Line Rankings: 16 vs 23 (PFF's)

Yards per Touch: 5.6 vs 5.6

Overall, David Johnson has a lot less help around him and has the same overall yards per touch.  He is a little less efficient running the ball but his offensive line is worst and he doesn't have a cheat code at QB to open things up.  Granted, there is a big talent difference but David Johnson is far more efficient than the other RB's on Houston while Gus Edwards is pretty much average (behind Dobbins by a lot, tied w/ Justice Hill, ahead of Ingram).  

 

Gus Edwards vs Jeff Wilson 

Yards per Game:   45.2 vs 50

Yards/Attempt: 5.0 vs 4.8

Yards per game (catching): 8.11 vs 11.1

Yards per Catch:  14.3 vs 10.2

Offensive Line Rankings: 16 vs 9 (PFF's)

Yards per Touch: 5.6 vs 5.3

Jeff Wilson is a little less efficient but has 4 more TD's on less touches.  When Wilson's % of total snaps rose, his efficiencies continued to increase suggesting he can handle a bigger load.  In his 3 games as a starter, he had some of his best numbers.  Inversely, Edward's % of total snap rose his efficiencies tended to decline the two exceptions being the Titans and Giants games.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 25, 2021 by ASmithFan1010