Follow-up performances of teams that missed the playoffs at 10+ wins since 2003

[pf9]

2003 Dolphins: Finished the following season 4-12 in 4th place

2005 Chiefs: Finished the following season 9-7 in 2nd place, but made the playoffs this time, losing in the wild card round to the eventual champions Colts

2007 Browns: Finished the following season 4-12 in 4th place; amazingly, they did not hold last place outright until the final week of the season, with three games to go, the Browns held a 2.5 game lead over Cincinnati despite losing their last three games, needing just one win or Cincinnati loss to clinch third place; however, the Bengals went on a three-game winning streak to close the season, while the Browns' losing streak extended to 6 games, including a week 16 loss to the Bengals, the second year in a row the Browns lost to the Bengals in week 16 needing a win to clinch something

2008 Patriots: Finished the following season 10-6, but this time, it was good enough to win the AFC East; like the 2006 Chiefs, the Patriots lost in the wild card round, this time to Baltimore; the Patriots ultimately had 19 consecutive winning seasons, making the playoffs in all but two of them (the 2008 Patriots are only the second 11-5 team to miss the playoffs)

2011 Buccaneers: Finished the the following season 4-12 in 4th place

2011 Giants: Rebounded to win the NFC East at only 9-7, and shocked the football world by winning Super Bowl 46

2012 Bears: Finished the following season 8-8 in second place, but was in playoff contention all the way to the final week, losing the NFC North title in week 17 to a Packers team that went a good portion of the season without Aaron Rodgers

2013 Cardinals: Improved win total by 1 to 11-5, earning the 5th seed in the NFC, but lost at a Carolina team which won the NFC South at only 7-8-1; notably, the Cardinals became the first team in 14 years to make the playoffs in a season the team hosted the Super Bowl

2014 Eagles: Finished the next two seasons at 7-9 (2nd in 2015, 4th in 2016) then won the Super Bowl as a 13-3 team in 2017

2015 Jets: Finished the following season 5-11 in 4th place

So, there has been a mixed bag of follow-up performances by teams that missed the playoffs with 10 or more wins. The teams that regressed to 4th place the following season tended to struggle for years afterward. The Dolphins broke their playoff drought in 2008 a year after finishing 1-15, but lost to the Ravens in the wild card round. It would be even longer for the Browns and Buccaneers to break their playoff droughts.

The Browns went on to have 12 consecutive losing seasons, an AFC record, after previously not having more than 4 losing seasons in a row at any time. This included finishing an entire decade (2010s) without a single non-losing season, a first in NFL history. The Buccaneers on the other hand, managed to have some 9-7 seasons during their 12-year playoff drought. At the same time the Browns finished 2017 0-16, the Bills made the playoffs for the first time since 1999, giving the Browns the longest-active playoff drought in the league. Both the Browns and Buccaneers made the playoffs in 2020.

Notably, Kellen Winslow Jr. played on both the 2007 Browns and 2010 Buccaneers, being traded to the latter team in February 2009 in the wake of Ben Rothlisberger, a notable player passed on by the Browns in the 2004 draft in favor of Winslow, winning his second Super Bowl with rival Pittsburgh in his fifth year of play. The Browns realized at that time they made a mistake drafting Winslow, and thus keeping him on the team would be an insult to their fans. The Steelers have not won a Super Bowl since then, something I dub the Curse of Kellen Jr., the trade of Winslow by the Browns being the event that cursed the Steelers, after a Curse of the 12th Man (referring to fans of the Seahawks, who lost Super Bull [sic] 40 because of controversial calls against them) failed to pan out.

Ultimately, Winslow Jr. never played a single NFL postseason game - including being cut by two different teams that made the 2012 postseason - and is facing a long prison sentence for crimes committed in his post-NFL life. This stands in stark contrast to his father, who played in four consecutive postseasons with the Chargers, including participating in two 1981 playoff games now part of NFL lore - The Epic in Miami and the Freezer Bowl. Ironically, Rothlisberger never played in a single BCS game at Miami OH, including being passed up in 2003 despite a high ranking in the final BCS standings; the BCS would change its rules to make non-AQ team qualification easier in 2006. In contrast, Winslow Jr. played in three BCS games with Miami FL, including two national title games, winning in 2001, and losing in epic fashion to Ohio State in 2002 - -still the best birthday present I ever received.

Thus, the Jets, the last close-but-no-cigar 10-win team before the playoff expansion to 14 teams, now have the longest active playoff drought in the NFL. But by winning two games late in the 2020 season after an 0-13 start, the Jets squandered a chance to draft perhaps the most highly-touted QB prospect in years, Trevor Lawrence. They might have to settle for Justin Fields, who ironically beat Lawrence in a grudge match during the CFP this season.

Time will tell if the Dolphins, the first team to miss the playoffs twice at 10 or more wins in the post-realignment era, will bounce back big in 2021. I had been a huge advocate of playoff expansion following what happened to the Browns in 2007 and the years since. I still want a 16-team playoff, mainly because the first-round bye is too much of a competitive advantage anymore, and I feel a 1 VS. 1 Super Bowl every year would be too fraudulent in a 14-team bracket.

Edited January 5, 2021 by pf9

[7DnBrnc53]

4 hours ago, pf9 said:

2011 Buccaneers: Finished the the following season 4-12 in 4th place

One of the most surprising collapses ever. Them and the Rams were supposed to be contenders going into that season, along with the so-called "Dream Team" in Philly.