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Deshaun Watson requests trade


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3 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Would include Miami. Not giving up on Tua or anything but that teams ready to compete. Good QB play and they're making serious noise.

For the Jaguars it'd make zero sense.

I'd agree with that. Solid OL (Jackson showed his potential until the injury), weapons, and a defense. 

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49ers are the best fit from a culture/coaching standpoint. I can't think of a better coach than Shanahan to mask Watson's weaknesses and something about Watson on a legacy franchise feels right. The Dolphins make the most sense from a logistics standpoint; they can part with 3 first round picks and Tua, still have a 1st next season and immediately be big game hunters.

The only thing is that contract. Tua looked pretty good against KC and he's incredibly cheap. No telling how much you're changing the direction of the franchise trading 3 first round picks for a dude getting paid in the ballpark of 40M a season.

EDIT: How about a 3 team deal. Niners get Tua and #18 from MIA, Texans get #12 from SF, #8 from MIA, MIA 2021 1st, SF 2nd round pick this year.

49ers move down 6 spots in the 1st and give up their 2nd for Tua.
Dolphins swing #12 from SF along with their #8, future 1st, and SF 2nd this year for Watson
Texans end up with 8, 12, 49ers 2nd, 2021 1st from MIA

Edited by Kirill
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6 hours ago, Jaguarfan said:

well, taking that upside PLUS keeping all of the additional draft capital that acquiring Watson would require, keeping the cap space that we would have to use on Watson, etc. 

We have more holes to fill than QB.

On a rookie contract. No brainer in my opinion. Higher risk regarding the QB position but I think that risk is pretty easily offset. 

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13 hours ago, pwny said:

If this is the starting point, a whole lot of teams should be inquiring.

If they are telling 3 to reporters obviously the starting point is at 4 1st round picks. Starting point. Just look at past trades.

Jets traded a DB that can't cover for the following:

Quote

The Jets traded the disgruntled star defensive back and a 2022 fourth round-pick to the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for safety Bradley McDougald, a first-round and third-round pick in 2021, and a 2022 first-round pick

Btw, I have a feeling Watson wont go to a bad team. I can understand him being angry at the morons who run the organization but if you want out of there so desperately you can't be picking only good teams as your new destination but I'm afraid that's what gonna happen. If so Goodell should do his thing to protect the shield because NFL doesn't need NBA divas crap ruining the league.

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1 minute ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

I like how someone else said the way the Texans have handled Watson is like when you win the lottery, but you lost the ticket before you could cash in. 

Seems accurate, what a mess. 

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8 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

3 or more 1st round picks PLUS his 40M/ hits over the next few years for a single player is way too much unless a team is ONLY a QB away from being a SB contender IMO.  I know that's only the "reported" asking price but still...damn that's alot. 

A team like the 49ers would be a no-brainer. 

Actually I read an article that said his cap hits in the future would only be $32m-$35mish since the Texans have to pay too. That would be a bargain for an elite QB

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10 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

I like how someone else said the way the Texans have handled Watson is like when you win the lottery, but you lost then lost the ticket before you could cash in. 

Yeah... yeah. 😬

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10 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

I like how someone else said the way the Texans have handled Watson is like when you win the lottery, but you lost then lost the ticket before you could cash in. 

They cashed in when he signed the contract. Or at least watson cashed in and now doesn't give af lolol

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1 hour ago, iknowcool said:

Actually I read an article that said his cap hits in the future would only be $32m-$35mish since the Texans have to pay too. That would be a bargain for an elite QB

Yeah, the signing bonuses stay with HOU, so a team that trades for Watson takes on the following salaries & cap hits (no extra dead money):

 

2021 10.5M

2022 35M

2023 37M (roster bonus included)

2024 32M

2025 32M


When you factor in that the new TV deal is coming after 2021 - there's a really strong chance that 32-35M will be an absolute bargain contract compared to top 5 QB play by 2022-23, and top 10 QB play in 2024-25.     Don't believe me?  Well, look at the QB market, and the cap implications.

By the end of 2022, here are the QB's who will need an extension (or already have one):

Josh Allen

Baker Mayfield

Lamar Jackson

Kyler Murray

And that's before you talk about the vets like Stafford & Cousins, and guys like Herbert & Burrow entering their 5th year option deal (when extension talk really begins).   So by the 2022-23 offseason the top 5 QB salary for the franchise tag will be well north of Watson numbers.  And by 2024, a top 10 QB likely make significantly more AAV than Watson's post-trade #'s.    FWIW, even now, I'm confident Dak's deal, with signing bonus included, will match or surpass Watson's post-trade #'s a team has to assume.

As for the cap - pre-Covid, it was projected to be 210M for 2021 (it was 198M this past year), and then 220-230M for 2022-23.   Here's the thing - those were projections based on present-day TV & online revenue.   The TV deal is up after 2021 - at which time, NFL's archaic Sunday Ticket / Game Pass deal will be scrapped, and streaming revenue will enter as a huge untapped resource.   There is pretty much no scenario where TV / online revenue won't increase.    That is likely to only surge the cap higher.  And when that happens - the star salaries go up.    Before anyone suggests that no one is as good as Mahomes and so won't get 40M AAV - that's not how the market works, and this has been consistently been demonstrated time and again.   

At latest, Watson's deal looks like an absolute bargain by 2024 - when he will be in his age 28/29 season.   Given the new TV deal, and the QB's who will be up for FA (which can be delayed by 1-2 years with franchise tag) will make Watson's post-trade #'s (which again, removes the signing bonus) look like a bargain - and probably a lot sooner than you think.   Now, the player & pick price is going to be steep, and that's the real discussion worth having - but while the contract is not a rookie-level bargain - people have to stop thinking it's an over-market deal.   For a top 5 QB, a team who trades for him is likely going to get a below-market cost contract. 

Edited by Broncofan
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24 minutes ago, GW21 said:

2021 1st, 2022 1st, 2023 1st, and Jimmy G. If that'd get it done I'd be down in a heartbeat for the Niners. 

If thats all it took, it would be done in a heartbeat. It helps that Caserio was in the Pats FO when Jimmy G was drafted. 

Ultimately, i think the Dolphins & Jets can put together much more attractive packages. Their picks are higher this year, they have extra 1st rounders to play with, & they can also include Tua/Darnold in the compensation as well.

There's also the question of including a pro bowl caliber player. Would Lynch include a player like Bosa or Warner? Would Douglas include a player like Quinnen Williams? Would Grier include a player like Xavien Howard? None of these teams would care about giving up Jimmy/Tua/Darnold as they're getting an elite QB in return, but If its 3+ 1sts & an elite player then it starts to become too much to give up. But ultimately, for a top 5 QB who will be 26 in Sept, its a fair price for the Texans to ask for. 

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24 minutes ago, GW21 said:

2021 1st, 2022 1st, 2023 1st, and Jimmy G. If that'd get it done I'd be down in a heartbeat for the Niners. 

Nobody wants that Jimmy G contract - including Houston. 

Picks are OK, bu those 1sts in later years aren't going to be top 15 selections (SF is an immediate SB contender with Watson and a semi healthy team) so you'd have to supplement these picks with an established player - maybe not Nick Bosa (though that would probably get my attention) but a guy like Raheem Mostert and an upside DB (Ahkello Witherspoon).

That's more likely to not be completely thrown up on this end (I'll still throw up).

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1 minute ago, 49ersfan said:

If thats all it took, it would be done in a heartbeat. It helps that Caserio was in the Pats FO when Jimmy G was drafted. 

Ultimately, i think the Dolphins & Jets can put together much more attractive packages. Their picks are higher this year, they have extra 1st rounders to play with, & they can also include Tua/Darnold in the compensation as well.

There's also the question of including a pro bowl caliber player. Would Lynch include a player like Bosa or Warner? Would Douglas include a player like Quinnen Williams? Would Grier include a player like Xavien Howard? None of these teams would care about giving up Jimmy/Tua/Darnold as they're getting an elite QB in return, but If its 3+ 1sts & an elite player then it starts to become too much to give up. But ultimately, for a top 5 QB who will be 26 in Sept, its a fair price for the Texans to ask for. 

This is not something I'd be prepared to do on top of multiple first rounders, I've been very consistent with that. If it's the three 1st rounders that's easy for me. With Watson our pick would be at the end of the 1st the second and third year. 

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2 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Nobody wants that Jimmy G contract - including Houston. 

Picks are OK, bu those 1sts in later years aren't going to be top 15 selections (SF is an immediate SB contender with Watson and a semi healthy team) so you'd have to supplement these picks with an established player - maybe not Nick Bosa (though that would probably get my attention) but a guy like Raheem Mostert and an upside DB (Ahkello Witherspoon).

That's more likely to not be completely thrown up on this end (I'll still throw up).

I would definitely send Raheem in a package for Watson. Witherspoon is a FA so you should be able to just sign him if you want to, as he's been in Shanny's doghouse for over a year now. But players of that caliber would definitely be a lot easier for me to justify sending with high picks that could be used to replace him. My problem with trading Bosa or Warner is, how are we going to replace them when all of our draft capital in the first round for multiple years is gone. I would be totally fine replacing the guys you mentioned with mid round picks. 

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