Deshaun Watson requests trade

[iknowcool]

WE GETTING DESHAUN WATSON

[Soko]

1 minute ago, SDotNova said:

It depends on the team. Just saying he goes for x amount first is not a good view. RG3 was picked #2 overall. In the Jets case, the Texans would be getting the #2 overall. Now if it’s the Panthers, then yes 4 1st are probably required.

#2 overall in 2021 is not the same as #2 overall in 2012. If the Jags somehow passed on Lawrence and the Jets said they were looking to move out of #2, you can bet the value of the pick would skyrocket. 

1 minute ago, SDotNova said:

I don’t see the Jets and to a lesser extent Miami being the type of team that would offer some crazy deal. We are not in position to do that.

Carolina maybe. SF definitely. So it comes down to how high do the Texans want to be in the draft. Is 4 1st from Carolina better than 3 1st from the Jets?

I don’t think anybody really knows that, considering a QB of Watson’s caliber, at the age of 25, has been available like this with any current FO. I’d do four 1sts in a heartbeat for Watson. If anything, the Jets and Phins are in the best possible position to do that because they can without extending into 2024.

Like I said, there’s virtually no precedence to work off of with this. No reason to think the Texans are going to entertain bad deals except the fact that they’re the Texans.

[lancerman]

27 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

No matter where Watson goes, it will be him moving on from a team that has no draft capital to improve the team around him to a team that just used all of their draft capital to obtain him. Kind of sucks either way; he has to really want out of Houston if he demanded a trade.

Yes but at least he can be on a relatively built team and not one that was competing for the #1 pick 

[jrry32]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

A team trading for Goff would have to take on 28.5M for 2021, 25.5M for 2022, and 25M for 2023.   If he was Goff 2018, sure, ppl would consider it.  Goff 2019-20?   Teams would want something back for taking on the contract alone (and yes, I get there are a lot of reasons that go beyond Goff himself, but it highlights that he's not a difference-maker on his own - you create a system to leverage what he can do - but that's not a guy rebuilders look for).

Honestly, LAR IMO isn't even in the room when negotiations start (and before ppl ask, neither is DEN lol....there are a lot of teams in that boat).

I don't want to turn this into a Goff thread, but that analysis is just plain wrong. Goff's cap hits over the next four years would be:

2021: $27.825m

2022: $25m

2023: $25m

2024: $26m

That's on par with Stafford, Carr, and Jimmy G., a bit more than Teddy Bridgewater, and a bit less than Ryan Tannehill.

This isn't Brock Osweiler on a ridiculously stupid contract being traded. Jay Cutler garnered multiple firsts. Carson Palmer garnered a first and a second. Alex Smith garnered the #34 pick and a second. Jimmy G. garnered a second. Matt Cassel garnered an early second. Sam Bradford garnered a second and Nick Foles and then a first in the next deal.

You're vastly underestimating the worth of a starting QB if you think we'd have to pay a team to take Goff's contract. At his best, he was a fringe top 10 QB. At his worst, he was in the 20 to 23 range. He has won a lot of games over the past four years. And he's still young for a pocket passer. The idea that he has negative value is beyond farfetched. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by jrry32

[minutemancl]

4 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Yes but at least he can be on a relatively built team and not one that was competing for the #1 pick 

The Dolphins fit that profile for sure, but the Jets don't. They've got a ton of building left to do. They lack talent almost everywhere.

[Broncofan]

12 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I don't want to turn this into a Goff thread, but that analysis is just plain wrong. Goff's cap hits over the next four years would be:

2021: $27.825m

2022: $25m

2023: $25m

2024: $26m

That's on par with Stafford, Carr, and Jimmy G., a bit more than Teddy Bridgewater, and a bit less than Ryan Tannehill.

 

You're vastly underestimating the worth of a starting QB if you think we'd have to pay a team to take Goff's contract. At his best, he was a fringe top 10 QB. At his worst, he was in the 20 to 23 range. He has won a lot of games over the past four years. And he's still young for a pocket passer. The idea that he has negative value is beyond farfetched. 

For a rebuilder, Goff has negative value.  He's not a difference maker at that money.   He's been a bottom half guy the last 2 years.    A rebuilder's path is to not invest 25M into a middle-road, or worse, 15-20 range guy.   There's no value gain, which is what they are looking to do.   A rebuilder won't see including Goff as any type of positive - they'd rather keep the $, and spend it on another guy.   To take that, they'd have to get extra value.   That's my belief.   

And FWIW, I'd say the same with Carr & JimmyG for any Stafford/Watson offer, too.   In this market, if you aren't league-average or better, you're not that attractive.   And that's the other problem this year for the other buyers - the market has far more attractive options.  Stafford at 2/43M is just so much more attractive.  The rookie class, while far from a certain quantity, offers that Holy Grail of the value gain if they can even be just league average.   When you factor in the rookie class, the number of rebuilder targets, and the actual presence of viable, higher end QB's available this offseason, and Goff's struggles - it just kills his value to a rebuilder. 

We don't have to agree - but I think the ultimate proof will be where Goff ends up for 2021.    If my statement is correct, he's staying in LAR.  If your statement holds, LAR will find someone for him.   You are a poster whose opinion I respect highly, so trust me when I say this, I don't say it lightly - I think your perception of Goff's value is nowhere near where outsiders, and more importantly to this discussion, rebuilders see him.   

 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Broncofan

[SDotNova]

27 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

#2 overall in 2021 is not the same as #2 overall in 2012. If the Jags somehow passed on Lawrence and the Jets said they were looking to move out of #2, you can bet the value of the pick would skyrocket. 

I don’t think anybody really knows that, considering a QB of Watson’s caliber, at the age of 25, has been available like this with any current FO. I’d do four 1sts in a heartbeat for Watson. If anything, the Jets and Phins are in the best possible position to do that because they can without extending into 2024.

Like I said, there’s virtually no precedence to work off of with this. No reason to think the Texans are going to entertain bad deals except the fact that they’re the Texans.

Definitely this year’s 2nd is not as valuable as the RG3 #2. But it’s still materially more valuable than Carolina’s #8. By how much, depends on how Houston ranks these QBs.

This is likely the debate taking place across FO. I personally think the Jets giving up 4 1st is too much. Maybe Miami can get away with that since they are further along.

The more I think about it, the more I think he goes to Carolina. Volume of picks seems to be what Houston fans want. So their FO can probably sell that trade better to their fans. They can even add Teddy as a hold the fort type QB and even a receiver like Robby. Then Carolina can bring back Samuel. 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by SDotNova

[Broncofan]

8 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

The Dolphins fit that profile for sure, but the Jets don't. They've got a ton of building left to do. They lack talent almost everywhere.

They can also get square pick-wise faster than anyone because they have 1.2, and 3 other 1sts for 2021-22.   They probably keep 1 of those picks.   And they have added enough core impact rookies/2nd-year guys at key positions (LT Becton, WR Mims, Quinnen Williams, maybe Bryce Hall - CB tough to know year 1 on bad teams), it's easier to fill the other spots.  

Don't get me wrong, Watson probably still misses playoffs for 2 more years.  But by 2023+, with that cap space, and GM Joe Douglas' ability to mine value from 2019, it's an org I'd be high on.   Now, if you want me to choose which org - of course MIA is in better shape.   It's not close.  But I don't think the narrative is NYJ is this pariah destination holds anymore.  

[Soko]

14 minutes ago, SDotNova said:

Definitely this year’s 2nd is not as valuable as the RG3 #2. But it’s still materially more valuable than Carolina’s #8. By how much, depends on how Houston ranks these QBs.

This is likely the debate taking place across FO. I personally think the Jets giving up 4 1st is too much. Maybe Miami can get away with that since they are further along.

The more I think about it, the more I think he goes to Carolina. Volume of picks seems to be what Houston fans want. So their FO can probably sell that trade better to their fans. They can even add Teddy as a hold the fort type QB and even a receiver like Robby. Then Carolina can bring back Samuel. 

 

When was the last time the Jets, Dolphins, or Texans had a franchise QB, let alone one as good as Watson? Douglas would be nuts if the Texans agreed on four 1sts and he declined. Fire-able offense IMO. 

I’m a NE fan and I’d even do 5. Great QBs are rare, teams go decades without ever finding one. 

EDIT: With the RGIII trade, Wentz trade, Tunsil trade, and Ramsey trade in mind - you’re saying if you were the Texans, you’d even consider taking only three picks for one of the most valuable players in the league?

Edited January 28, 2021 by Yin-Yang

[jrry32]

21 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

For a rebuilder, Goff has negative value.  He's not a difference maker at that money.   He's been a bottom half guy the last 2 years.    A rebuilder's path is to not invest 25M into a middle-road, or worse, 15-20 range guy.   There's no value gain, which is what they are looking to do.   A rebuilder won't see including Goff as any type of positive - they'd rather keep the $, and spend it on another guy.   To take that, they'd have to get extra value.   That's my belief.   

Goff's value won't come from a rebuilder. If we were to do something at QB, it would almost certainly be akin to a three-team trade. We would deal Goff to a competitive team that needs a QB (ex. Indy). And then deal the pick(s) we get back for the other QB to the rebuilding team. 

Quote

We don't have to agree - but I think the ultimate proof will be where Goff ends up for 2021.    If my statement is correct, he's staying in LAR.  If your statement holds, LAR will find someone for him.   You are a poster whose opinion I respect highly, so trust me when I say this, I don't say it lightly - I think your perception of Goff's value is nowhere near where outsiders, and more importantly to this discussion, rebuilders see him.   

I think it's very much the opposite. I think Goff's value is a lot higher than what outsiders (at least speaking of fans) believe it is. I was shocked we got what we did for Bradford and even more shocked Philly got what it did for him. There are only so many starting-caliber QBs in the NFL at a time. If you're a team that has good pieces, no starting-caliber QB, and aren't in the position to grab a good one in the Draft, well, you don't have a lot of choices. However, I don't think it's accurate to say that Goff remaining in the LA would prove you right. I don't see the Rams as desperate to trade him. We're open for business, but we're not desperate.

[jrry32]

9 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

When was the last time the Jets, Dolphins, or Texans had a franchise QB, let alone one as good as Watson? Douglas would be nuts if the Texans agreed on four 1sts and he declined. Fire-able offense IMO. 

I’m a NE fan and I’d even do 5. Great QBs are rare, teams go decades without ever finding one. 

If I were the Jets, I would pick Zach Wilson over giving up four first round picks. But I'm very high on the kid.

[DirtyDez]

Keim has history of trading for future hall of famers in their prime out of Houston.  Let’s keep it simple.  

[Soko]

3 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

If I were the Jets, I would pick Zach Wilson over giving up four first round picks. But I'm very high on the kid.

There’s always that allure. I’d rather go in on Watson, but I understand that line of thinking.

Wanting to work with Darnold and keeping the picks, over Watson, I do not get. Willing to trade three 1sts but closing the door on four, I get even less.

[lancerman]

41 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

The Dolphins fit that profile for sure, but the Jets don't. They've got a ton of building left to do. They lack talent almost everywhere.

I think the Dolphins or Colts are the ideal spots. 

[jrry32]

3 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

There’s always that allure. I’d rather go in on Watson, but I understand that line of thinking.

Wanting to work with Darnold and keeping the picks, over Watson, I do not get. Willing to trade three 1sts but closing the door on four, I get even less.

My thought process is that your best Super Bowl window is generally during a QB's rookie contract. I think Wilson can be a great QB. I'd use that bevy of picks and cap to build a complete team around him. Watson is great, but as this year in Houston proved, he can't lift a bad team out of the gutter. So the Jets would still need to put a team around him. And they can do that. But I would be concerned that the team I could put around him would top out as merely good, in the short term at least.