Soko Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, jrry32 said: My thought process is that your best Super Bowl window is generally during a QB's rookie contract. I think Wilson can be a great QB. I'd use that bevy of picks and cap to build a complete team around him. Watson is great, but as this year in Houston proved, he can't lift a bad team out of the gutter. So the Jets would still need to put a team around him. And they can do that. But I would be concerned that the team I could put around him would top out as merely good, in the short term at least. It’s fair, and it’s understandable. Not something I’d disagree with. One thing I would say is: I think you need to put a team around any QB. Good coaching and a good team is a prerequisite for most SB championships, so if that’s going to be a problem then I don’t think a QB, regardless of what deal they’re on, will be enough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soflbillsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, lancerman said: I think the Dolphins or Colts are the ideal spots. Thing is Texans can be dysfunctional but they would be flat out dumb for trading in the division where he faces the team twice for the next decade. If anything I would be loading him on a bus to the NFC where you deal with him once every 4 years. As for the dolphins while it may be a bit of an excitement they still have the issue at hand no true weapons and lack of oline and run game. Defense while leading the league in take aways the defense was bottom middle of the pack the entire year. They still need work but if you are going to give up 1st rd picks I would then say go with a qb at 3 and land a wr or olineman with pick 18 and give Tua competition and the loser gets moved at a later date. As much as I like to see the Dolphins and Jets falter I think these teams would be disastrous by giving up so many picks for Watson without giving him the pieces he will need to succeed. Losing that draft capital will prevent them from being able to do so. Bears, Niners, Cowboys, or Washington would be the team I would be demanding if I were Watson..Colts would be top but divisional thing. Wouldnt put it passed BB to go all in on him for Pats too but even there they have no weapons to offer him. At the end of the day I would still hold on to him and force him to play for my team as he is worth more then some draft picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 John and Kyle need to be doing what they can to get Watson. I'll be gutted if they aren't in the final running for getting him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrry32 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: It’s fair, and it’s understandable. Not something I’d disagree with. One thing I would say is: I think you need to put a team around any QB. Good coaching and a good team is a prerequisite for most SB championships, so if that’s going to be a problem then I don’t think a QB, regardless of what deal they’re on, will be enough. Yeah, but that's the value of having those three extra first round picks and a QB who isn't making $30+ million per year. You have that cap space and those draft assets to build a complete team. If I'm a GM, I'm a pretty egotistical guy and think I can hit on those picks and my FAs. 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrry32 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, TecmoSuperJoe said: John and Kyle need to be doing what they can to get Watson. I'll be gutted if they aren't in the final running for getting him. No Watson for you. You'll get Stafford and be happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, jrry32 said: No Watson for you. You'll get Stafford and be happy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soflbillsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, jrry32 said: I don't want to turn this into a Goff thread, but that analysis is just plain wrong. Goff's cap hits over the next four years would be: 2021: $27.825m 2022: $25m 2023: $25m 2024: $26m That's on par with Stafford, Carr, and Jimmy G., a bit more than Teddy Bridgewater, and a bit less than Ryan Tannehill. This isn't Brock Osweiler on a ridiculously stupid contract being traded. Jay Cutler garnered multiple firsts. Carson Palmer garnered a first and a second. Alex Smith garnered the #34 pick and a second. Jimmy G. garnered a second. Matt Cassel garnered an early second. Sam Bradford garnered a second and Nick Foles and then a first in the next deal. You're vastly underestimating the worth of a starting QB if you think we'd have to pay a team to take Goff's contract. At his best, he was a fringe top 10 QB. At his worst, he was in the 20 to 23 range. He has won a lot of games over the past four years. And he's still young for a pocket passer. The idea that he has negative value is beyond farfetched. But why would you expect a team to trade for him? I get it you want to say he is a fringe top 10 yet he struggled mightily this year so why would someone that is rebuilding want to spend that money on him? McVay is touted as one of the best offensive mind hc and a qb man with great weapons at Goff's disposal so if he cant get it done in LA then what appeal would it be for a team that is rebuilding? I am sure he will get some draft capital and not have to pay someone to take him but he isnt someone who I would be running to scoop up and make him my starter right now. What team is willing to take on that contract of 28 mil that can afford him especially in a time where cap space will be decreased nearly 25 mil from 2020 season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrry32 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said: But why would you expect a team to trade for him? Because when you have a team that can win and are missing a QB, you are going to be willing to give up compensation for a guy who can get you to the playoffs. Quote I get it you want to say he is a fringe top 10 yet he struggled mightily this year so why would someone that is rebuilding want to spend that money on him? I said he was fringe top 10 at his best (2017 and 2018) and top 20-23 at his worst (2020). And I already addressed the rebuilding point in another post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 (edited) 46 minutes ago, jrry32 said: I was shocked we got what we did for Bradford and even more shocked Philly got what it did for him. T The difference with Bradford was because Bradford was the only available starting QB 1 week before the season started. And a team who felt they were 1 guy away. The offseason doesn't present that scenario. The seller holds all the leverage because there are no other options for the buyer. That's never the case in the offseason, at least not for league-average talents who are expensive (there are lots of guys like that, or cheap guys who can just be stopgaps). That's why we've never seen that type of deal since. If some contender lost their starter 1 week before the 2021 season started, and no one else was willing to deal a starter-level QB, even just an average one - sure, I could absolutely see something like that repeat itself with LAR & Goff. But that's August 2021. But that scenario isn't unfolding in March-April. Timing & context are why Bradford scenario happened. It doesn't apply in an offseason pre-draft, when teams don't lack stop-gap options (priced accordingly) to fill their QB spots, and so this doesn't apply for Watson/Stafford discussions. Just so this isn't a Goff discussion alone that hijacks the convo - this applies for ANY team who has an expensive QB they'd love to part ways with. SF & JimmyG, PHI & Wentz. Edited January 28, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrry32 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Broncofan said: The difference with Bradford was because Bradford was the only available starting QB 1 week before the season started. And a team who felt they were 1 guy away. The offseason doesn't present that scenario. That's why we've never seen that type of deal since. If some contender lost their starter 1 week before the season started, and no one else was willing to deal a starter-level QB, even just an average one - sure, I could absolutely see something like that repeat itself. But that scenario isn't unfolding in March-April. Timing & context are why Bradford scenario happened. It doesn't apply in an offseason, when teams don't lack options to fill their QB spots. We got a 2nd and Nick Foles when we traded Bradford to the Eagles. At that time, Foles was considered a pretty decent starting QB. And this offseason kind of does present that scenario. There's going to be a musical chairs of starting QBs, and at least one team that has the pieces to be competitive will be left without one. That could be the Colts, Bears, Broncos, Patriots, Redskins, or Panthers. But there's going to be a team out there left thinking, "Ya know, if we had a serviceable QB, we could win 10+ games." And that's why people are always surprised at the value starting-caliber QBs have in trades. Why did the Texans have to give draft compensation to offload Osweiler? Because he wasn't a starting-caliber QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49ersfan Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said: It’s the Texans, so I’m not ruling out the incompetence, but people are really figuring he goes for only three 1sts? Wentz the prospect went for 2 + a lot of change. RGIII the prospect was 3 + change. I guess you could argue that teams will pay more of a premium “for the unknown”/hope of greatness, along with the rookie deal. But how many other 25 year old QBs at Watson’s level have ever become available? I’d be shocked if it wasn’t at least four 1sts. And that’s even factoring in that the Texans are the Texans. Jay Cutler is the closest comparison. He was 26 and coming off a great season with the Broncos. Went for two 1st's, a 3rd, and Kyle Orton 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, 49ersfan said: Jay Cutler is the closest comparison. He was 26 and coming off a great season with the Broncos. Went for two 1st's, a 3rd, and Kyle Orton And while I love my Broncos, there is no way Cutler's trajectory at that time resembled Watson's so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 lol - 25% of the post in this thread are @ET80. He is working on pushing 450% of the #2 poster, @Forge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Matts4313 said: lol - 25% of the post in this thread are @ET80. He is working on pushing 450% of the #2 poster, @Forge. Poor ET Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49ersfan Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Broncofan said: And while I love my Broncos, there is no way Cutler's trajectory at that time resembled Watson's so far. I'm sure Watson will go for a bit more, i'm wondering if its 3 or 4 1st round picks. I can't really remember at the time how Cutler was viewed. Watson is viewed as a top 5 QB now. Back then, i think fans were a bit more conservative and wanted players to ball out for 2-3 years before putting them on top 5 lists. Going into '09, there was Brady, Brees, Rivers, Ben, Eli in their primes. Ryan & Rodgers just had good 1st years as starters, Favre & Peyton as the vets, Romo, McNabb was still viewed highly i believe, Matt Cassell was also viewed highly enough to get traded for a 2nd round pick. Not sure what the consensus was on Cutler back then, not as high as Watson, but the QB landscape was very different. Edited January 28, 2021 by 49ersfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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