2021 Free Agent Thread

[lavar703]

54 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

What do you think you could get if you traded Jon Allen for Stephon Gilmore? Allen is younger and they want to move on from Gilmore It’s not a straight player for player trade but I think this could be a realistic option for both teams

I have zero interest in trading Allen. None. 

[e16bball]

I’ve been thinking about it a lot, and I really think this is the year to be aggressive on the market. 

This year, the artificially deflated cap number means that the number of legitimate suitors for top FA options will be lower than almost ever. But there will still be plenty of valuable talent on the market. It’s basic economics, of course, but equal supply and lesser demand means lower prices. 

Next year you’re likely going to have an explosion in available cap space, and while there might be more talent than usual on the market (due to low 2021 franchise tag numbers and some FAs opting for one-year deals this offseason), it still won’t be commensurate with the magnitude of the increase in available cap space for every single team. It will be a situation like the 2016 NBA offseason, where the massive salary cap explosion allowed for things like Durant to the Warriors and absolutely flooded the market with money. That’s how you end up with deals like 4/$64M for Ian F. Mahinmi. Too much money chasing too little talent means terrible prices.

It reminds me of the classic Warren Buffett precept that you want to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. This offseason, the depressed salary cap — as well as the low 2020 local revenue, I’d imagine — will cause teams to shy away from big money commitments. That means we should be ready to strike, to zig when much of the league is being forced to zag. And then next offseason, we can sit back on our draft assets and more complete roster while other teams are playing with fire in a crazy FA market.

Edited March 6, 2021 by e16bball

[lavar703]

I’ve been all in on Smith-Shuster but now that Mark Tyler of Hogs Haven is saying the same thing it’s making me cool off lol. Not a fan of that guy. 

[e16bball]

1 minute ago, lavar703 said:

I have zero interest in trading Allen. None. 

I have the same interest in trading him that I have in guys like Young, Sweat, McLaurin, Payne, etc. 

Which is to say...okay, how much will you give me for him? There’s a price that makes it worthwhile to trade anyone, but it seems unlikely anyone will meet that price for a DT who isn’t a premier pass-rush threat. If LAC came in and said they’d give us pick 13 for him, well okay, we’re in business. I’d clearly trade him for that. That would put us in shouting distance of trading up for Zach Wilson if the Jets pass, and I’d be all aboard for trading Jon Allen and pick 19 for Wilson.

But for the late 2nd or 3rd round value we’d probably get for him, I’ll pass. Eventually we’ll have to figure out the money situation, but that day isn’t today. Just extend him, try to keep the cap figure down this season, and we’ll re-evaluate in a couple years.

[ripsean21]

9 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I have the same interest in trading him that I have in guys like Young, Sweat, McLaurin, Payne, etc. 

Which is to say...okay, how much will you give me for him? There’s a price that makes it worthwhile to trade anyone, but it seems unlikely anyone will meet that price for a DT who isn’t a premier pass-rush threat. If LAC came in and said they’d give us pick 13 for him, well okay, we’re in business. I’d clearly trade him for that. That would put us in shouting distance of trading up for Zach Wilson if the Jets pass, and I’d be all aboard for trading Jon Allen and pick 19 for Wilson.

But for the late 2nd or 3rd round value we’d probably get for him, I’ll pass. Eventually we’ll have to figure out the money situation, but that day isn’t today. Just extend him, try to keep the cap figure down this season, and we’ll re-evaluate in a couple years.

I get that and I love Allen but we’re mentioning 4 guys eventually we have to be progressive and pick so we aren’t doing what San Fran did getting rid of Bunkner who was the best while paying Ford and Armstead. The best 3 are Payne Sweat Young. So the best thing to maximize the roster is to move the odd man after a great season for something we deem a fit here and maximize the overall roster. I love Allen but he’s the traceable asset on the line we can afford to lose

[turtle28]

36 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I have zero interest in trading Allen. None. 

[e16bball]

9 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

I get that and I love Allen but we’re mentioning 4 guys eventually we have to be progressive and pick so we aren’t doing what San Fran did getting rid of Bunkner who was the best while paying Ford and Armstead. The best 3 are Payne Sweat Young. So the best thing to maximize the roster is to move the odd man after a great season for something we deem a fit here and maximize the overall roster. I love Allen but he’s the traceable asset on the line we can afford to lose

Eventually, yes, we will have to make a decision. But to paraphrase Aragorn at the Black Gate, the day may come that we have to break up this group of DL in the name of salary cap restrictions — but it is not this day. 

Thanks to the 5th-year option, Young doesn’t hit FA for 4 years, and Sweat won’t get there for 3. If we extend Allen now, we could give him a 4-year deal that would run fully before we ever have to give Young the mega-deal that he (hopefully) will earn. And as long as it’s structured properly, we could easily get out of it via trade or release after year 3 of the deal, in time to clear space for Sweat if needed. 

We have to be cognizant of the potentially impending future cap crunch with these DL. We can’t be giving Allen a back-loaded 5-year deal or something like that. But a reasonable 4-year contract will keep him here through most of his prime and should let us retain the flexibility to make decisions on the others down the road. I don’t think we need to trade him right now — while each of Payne, Sweat, and Young are still very affordable — so I don’t think we should rush to do it just because we could find ourselves in a pickle in 3-4 years.

In short, what I’m saying is that we shouldn’t get too far ahead of ourselves here. We don’t really know what position we’ll be in come 2024. We all love to dream about all these guys remaining/becoming elite and forming a legendary dominant DL — but what if one of these guys gets seriously hurt? What if one or both of the DEs never takes the step forward to All-Pro/mega-contract status? Nothing is ever promised in the NFL, so I don’t think we should offload excellent talent years before we have to, just in anticipation of a future problem. 

If someone offers you a Deforest Buckner type deal for Allen, well sure, you probably have to take that. And the amount of other young talent we have on the DL would absolutely be a factor in deeming him “tradeable.” But I wouldn’t be out there shopping him because I’m afraid to extend him. Let’s keep the group together, make sure we maintain flexibility with contract structure, and see where we stand in 2-3 years.

[e16bball]

I also have to add, I’m not sure Sweat or Payne is better than Allen at this point. I think they’re both more talented and athletically gifted, and their splash plays are way more impressive than anything Allen is really capable of. Their upside is higher.

But in terms of consistency and actual production, especially as a pass-rusher, I think Allen is just as good. 

[turtle28]

Jon Allen is our Buckner, he’s our most complete DT and he should be extended. Ioannidis is a little bit better as an interior pass rusher and Payne is a little bit better than Allen as a run defender but Allen is the most complete DT we have.

Re-sign Allen. Figure out the $ situation and which one of Ioannidis Payne and Settle you want to keep around for the future next offseason. 
 

It seems to me that extending Ioannidis & Settle makes most sense while trading Payne next offseason for another teams good/great starter or a high draft pick.

I don’t think the 49ers example is a good comparison to ours. The 49ers got unlucky that after they traded for Dee Ford that he kept getting hurt. We didn’t trade for a big contract player, they’re all homegrown. I will 100% agree that the 49ers traded the wrong DL a year ago, they should’ve traded Armstead instead of trading Buckner.

[RSkinGM]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

I’ve been thinking about it a lot, and I really think this is the year to be aggressive on the market. 

This year, the artificially deflated cap number means that the number of legitimate suitors for top FA options will be lower than almost ever. But there will still be plenty of valuable talent on the market. It’s basic economics, of course, but equal supply and lesser demand means lower prices. 

Next year you’re likely going to have an explosion in available cap space, and while there might be more talent than usual on the market (due to low 2021 franchise tag numbers and some FAs opting for one-year deals this offseason), it still won’t be commensurate with the magnitude of the increase in available cap space for every single team. It will be a situation like the 2016 NBA offseason, where the massive salary cap explosion allowed for things like Durant to the Warriors and absolutely flooded the market with money. That’s how you end up with deals like 4/$64M for Ian F. Mahinmi. Too much money chasing too little talent means terrible prices.

It reminds me of the classic Warren Buffett precept that you want to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. This offseason, the depressed salary cap — as well as the low 2020 local revenue, I’d imagine — will cause teams to shy away from big money commitments. That means we should be ready to strike, to zig when much of the league is being forced to zag. And then next offseason, we can sit back on our draft assets and more complete roster while other teams are playing with fire in a crazy FA market.

Won't the free agents want one year deals and try to get the bigger money in 2022 ?

[turtle28]

22 hours ago, RSkinGM said:

Won't the free agents want one year deals and try to get the bigger money in 2022 ?

Depends on the FA I think. Some of these FAs aren’t guys who are the top of the market FAs, I think they’ll want to do long term deals. Some FAs who are coming off an average or down year like Darby going into last offseason but I think that depends on what kind of deal is offered and if that player thinks they can play on a one year deal and so better.

Basically, to me that’s a player by player case. I don’t think you can paint it with a broad brush and say a lot of them will do that. 
 

We have $54 mil in cap space, we certainly can make some moves and have $ to spend. We also could have $62 mil in cap space if we make Landon Collins a June 1st cut as well and instead of trying to move him to WLB. Then, we can take those cap savings and sign a FA WLB like Jaylon Brown to replace KPL/possibly Collins at that position.

Edited March 7, 2021 by turtle28

[e16bball]

17 hours ago, RSkinGM said:

Won't the free agents want one year deals and try to get the bigger money in 2022 ?

Some probably will. But I think that’s a better play in other sports than it is in football. In the NFL, sometimes you only get one shot to secure the bag, and it’s really crucial to take the bird in the hand rather than holding out for two in the bush. That’s why they all hate the franchise tag — it’s great money for one year of play, but they want the big guaranteed deal that they can only get when they hit the FA market with a lot of leverage. 

There’s just so much risk of getting injured in football, and I suspect (without knowing factually) that there’s also greater risk of hitting an early cliff in terms of your play dropping off. It’s one thing for a shortstop or a point guard, probably even a quarterback, to bet on himself for one season. But for most NFL players, their careers are comparatively short and fleeting — one bad injury to the knee or Achilles or neck/head, etc. can put an end to your ability to play at a high level. 

So for most of these guys, I think they’ll opt to take a “pretty good” deal over hoping they have another injury-free and high-level season that will earn them a “great” deal. If you’ve potentially only got one chance to earn generational wealth in your lifetime, are you really willing to turn down that guaranteed $30M in order to gamble that next year you might be able to get $38M?

[offbyone]

20 hours ago, e16bball said:

Eventually, yes, we will have to make a decision. But to paraphrase Aragorn at the Black Gate, the day may come that we have to break up this group of DL in the name of salary cap restrictions — but it is not this day. 

One thing is for sure, we aren't going to keep this DLine together if we balk at extending the first guy who needs to be extended.  It all starts with Allen.  This should be the first proper contract announced this offseason.  

[turtle28]

2 hours ago, offbyone said:

One thing is for sure, we aren't going to keep this DLine together if we balk at extending the first guy who needs to be extended.  It all starts with Allen.  This should be the first proper contract announced this offseason.  

[turtle28]

The only issue is to signing LaMarcus Joyner is his age. Just like Kyle Van Noy & Gabe Jackson, LaMarcus Joyner will be 30 when the season starts this year. We have to be careful about signing too many 30-year old FAs & what kind of contracts we sign them to.