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Deshaun Watson Unhappy Thread


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1 hour ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Would any trade with the Dolphins make you feel ok with trading Watson? Tua and a couple firsts? What would you need?

I don't think you're going to be happy with trading Watson.  But if you think your relationship with Watson is done, you extract as much value as you humanly can.  I think 3 FRPs is the general framework of the deal, but there's probably tweaking on it.  I think something like their #3 overall pick returned, 2022 FRP, 2023 SRP, and Tua is a pretty strong package. I argued a similarish package is what the Jets would have to offer.  For Houston, if you believe Tua is the QBOTF for you then you roll with him and use that #3 piece to jumpstart a rebuild.  Or if you aren't, you try and salvage his value and maybe flip him for a Day 2 pick similar to Josh Rosen.  You're still going to have either Zach Wilson or Justin Fields available at 3.

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25 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I don't think you're going to be happy with trading Watson.

This ultimately sums it up. There's no compensation that makes this a deal anyone wants to make.

26 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I think something like their #3 overall pick returned, 2022 FRP, 2023 SRP, and Tua is a pretty strong package.

It's still not enough, IMO. You'd have to include pick #18 to the mix. Maybe drop the 2023 SRP.

Another creative solution for Miami: Take on bad contracts. Whitney Mercilius, Randall Cobb, Eric Murray - take those bad signings off of the Texans books along with the compensation, then that makes more sense.

Not that any of this would keep me around.

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2 minutes ago, ET80 said:

It's still not enough, IMO. You'd have to include pick #18 to the mix. Maybe drop the 2023 SRP.

Another creative solution for Miami: Take on bad contracts. Whitney Mercilius, Randall Cobb, Eric Murray - take those bad signings off of the Texans books along with the compensation, then that makes more sense.

But if you're Miami, does using all of your assets to acquire Watson and eating up cap space really help their situation?  I could see them willing to move that '23 SRP for #18 instead, but Houston would have to kick something back.  I honestly don't recall when 3 FRPs were traded within 2 years of each other like this proposal would.  Miami has a ton of motivation to keep #18, and really only the NY Jets have the draft ammunition to match that offer.  I mean, aside from the Jets who is going to offer a top 5 pick for Watson?  IF Houston does trade Watson, it's hard reset that's going to happen.  You trade J.J. Watt for whatever the most a Super Bowl contender is willing to deal for him, you're releasing as much salary this year as you can to clean your books (i.e. Brandin Cooks, Bradley Roby, David Johnson, Duke Johnson, etc.), and try and amass as many picks.  You either roll with Tua as your franchise QB and use the 3rd overall pick to ship off to a QB-needy team (i.e. Carolina, Detroit, etc.) using Atlanta as leverage, or you take QB3 at 3 and then flip Tua for whatever you can get for him.

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3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I don't think you're going to be happy with trading Watson.  But if you think your relationship with Watson is done, you extract as much value as you humanly can.  I think 3 FRPs is the general framework of the deal, but there's probably tweaking on it.  I think something like their #3 overall pick returned, 2022 FRP, 2023 SRP, and Tua is a pretty strong package. I argued a similarish package is what the Jets would have to offer.  For Houston, if you believe Tua is the QBOTF for you then you roll with him and use that #3 piece to jumpstart a rebuild.  Or if you aren't, you try and salvage his value and maybe flip him for a Day 2 pick similar to Josh Rosen.  You're still going to have either Zach Wilson or Justin Fields available at 3.

Logically, this makes sense if he wants out. It'd sting getting back the #3 overall pick that was ours to begin with, but three 1sts and a young, promising QB is a solid haul given the circumstances. I think part of the problem is none of us want admit this is even a possibility until we no we're at a point of no return, which I don't think we're at. The head coach decisions still looms large and Houston hasn't really interviewed too many yet. Who Casserio and Cal hire as head coach is going to be a crucial piece of this and we absolutely need Watson involved in that decision. 

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1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

But if you're Miami, does using all of your assets to acquire Watson and eating up cap space really help their situation?

Given their coaching situation, defensive setup, existing WRs - I'd say yes. Deshaun Watson had an amazing season without the benefit of a functional team around him - give him an actual defense and he's off to the races. Likewise, Ryan Fitzpatrick nearly took this team to the playoffs, Watson will have this team competing with Buffalo for the division.

4 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

 I honestly don't recall when 3 FRPs were traded within 2 years of each other like this proposal would.  

Wasn't this what WFT gave up for RG3? Unlike Griffin, you know Watson will be a franchise QB.

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Miami has a ton of motivation to keep #18, and really only the NY Jets have the draft ammunition to match that offer.

Likewise, they have a ton of motivation to get rid of the pick if it gets them Watson. Who realistically is available at 18 that would transform the Dolphins in the same way as Watson? Nobody, nobody at all. 

6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

IF Houston does trade Watson, it's hard reset that's going to happen.

The Texans would be bringing in Tua, so there's a mindset that this could be a competetive team.

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2 minutes ago, LORK88 said:

Logically, this makes sense if he wants out. It'd sting getting back the #3 overall pick that was ours to begin with, but three 1sts and a young, promising QB is a solid haul given the circumstances. I think part of the problem is none of us want admit this is even a possibility until we no we're at a point of no return, which I don't think we're at. The head coach decisions still looms large and Houston hasn't really interviewed too many yet. Who Casserio and Cal hire as head coach is going to be a crucial piece of this and we absolutely need Watson involved in that decision. 

Agreed.  I don't think the relationship is unsalvagable at this point, but things need to change quickly.  The writing has been on the wall for a while now that Cassserio was going to be the GM.

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1 minute ago, ET80 said:

Given their coaching situation, defensive setup, existing WRs - I'd say yes. Deshaun Watson had an amazing season without the benefit of a functional team around him - give him an actual defense and he's off to the races. Likewise, Ryan Fitzpatrick nearly took this team to the playoffs, Watson will have this team competing with Buffalo for the division.

I guess I'm a bit skeptical that the Dolphins are going to replicate their success.  Pythagorean wins had them at 9.6 wins, and they were I believe a +1 in the close wins/loss columns.  They were a good team, but this jump was unexpected.  I'm not sure they're going to replicate the same success next year, but I could be wrong.

3 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Wasn't this what WFT gave up for RG3? Unlike Griffin, you know Watson will be a franchise QB.

That was 3 picks in 3 drafts.  This is 3 picks in 2 drafts.  You don't have to discount future picks as much.  Depending on how you value future picks, that decreases the value quite a bit.  Personally, I value future picks as the last pick in the next round so that future FRP is worth the 64th pick.  So if you apply that to that 3rd FRP, you're talking about the 96th overall pick.  So the RG3 package using my future devaluation was #6, #39, #64, and #96.  If you're using the same process, my proposed Watson trade would be #3, #18, #64, and Tua.  The 6th and 39th pick are worth a combined 2110 points where the 3rd pick is worth 2200 points, but let's call that a wash for all intents and purposes.  So you're talking about an extra mid-FRP plus Tua Tagovailola compared to the 96th overall pick since the future FRPs essentially was themselves out.  So it's quite a significantly better package than the one the WFT gave up for RG3 unless you're really sour on Tua.  I don't remember exactly what RG3's contract was, but there was also the cost-control factor with him as well.

8 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Likewise, they have a ton of motivation to get rid of the pick if it gets them Watson. Who realistically is available at 18 that would transform the Dolphins in the same way as Watson? Nobody, nobody at all. 

It's not about transforming them.  It's about putting more pieces around him.  If you're lucky, you'll see one of Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, or JaMarr Chase fall to them at 18.  Or continue to solidify the OL, or continue to build up the defense.  The question I have to ask is if the Dolphins are willing to put #3 and their FRP next year on the table, who can reasonably offer a similar package?  The list constitutes of one team IMO, the New York Jets.  Nobody else is going to be willing to pony up that price tag.  How many teams in the top 5 are dangling their pick for Watson?  Especially a top 3 pick which guarantees them at least one of Fields or Wilson if they're lukewarm on Tua.

12 minutes ago, ET80 said:

The Texans would be bringing in Tua, so there's a mindset that this could be a competetive team.

I don't agree.  I think it's a hard reset for a year, and then hope that they can figure it out a year from now.

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Caserio said he won't hire the HC without input from Watson, he's scared about the unhappiness, he obviously knows the issue and sees the fact the franchise is in despair right now and fixing that starts with making sure Watson commits to staying at the Texans long-term and we don't turn into a James Harden-esque situation where he is playing games and when hes asked about the possibility of a trade he says "Next question."

You can't fix this without Deshaun replying and interacting, he is on vacation in Cabo, he doesn't wanna deal with this. Caserio has a list of HC candidates but he isn't interviewing? Why? Probably because he is waiting until Deshaun gets back. He is doing his best and we need to understand that short of firing Easterby (which we're not even sure Deshaun wants btw) we're stuck here. 

 

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Btw if you wanna show Deshaun you're serious you resign Fuller right now and you put out feelers to the media that you want to keep all his favorite team mates that are up for contract negotiation or everyone has been saying is gonna be fired, you also say that Tim Kelly has a role on the team next year (which he deserves I feel like he'd be a good pass game coordinator.)

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