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Spinning Tires: Steelers 2021 Offseason and Beyond...


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15 minutes ago, DR43 said:

Would that be worth it?  Who knows we might have a QB fall to us in next years draft.

In my opinion, more than worth it. We have set ourselves up in a great position to start a “mini rebuild” next off-season with tons of cap space, roster flexibility, and still plenty of young talent to stay competitive. And if Fields is a home run like I think he is, we will be on a similar plan as KC when they drafted Mahomes and could be super bowl contenders again by 2022/2023 as opposed to hoping we get a top QB next year and starting fresh with him in 2022. Fields is probably the consensus #1 overall pick if he’s in next years draft.

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1 hour ago, bigben07MVP said:

In my opinion, more than worth it. We have set ourselves up in a great position to start a “mini rebuild” next off-season with tons of cap space, roster flexibility, and still plenty of young talent to stay competitive. And if Fields is a home run like I think he is, we will be on a similar plan as KC when they drafted Mahomes and could be super bowl contenders again by 2022/2023 as opposed to hoping we get a top QB next year and starting fresh with him in 2022. Fields is probably the consensus #1 overall pick if he’s in next years draft.

Would you be willing to trade up or select any other QB in the first round, besides Trevor Lawrence or 

Trey Lance of course?

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15 minutes ago, DR43 said:

Would you be willing to trade up or select any other QB in the first round, besides Trevor Lawrence or 

Trey Lance of course?

Lawrence, Fields, Wilson for sure

Lance, I wouldn’t be as excited but I would still support the move. 

Mac Jones definitely not. 

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Wilson and Fields are the only QBs in this entire draft other than Lawrence id be okay with us drafting. Although I still have concerns about Fields' ability to read a defense.

Trey Lance is, imo, a project QB and Mac Jones is gonna die in the NFL.

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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/2021-draft-running-back-rankings/id1454809704?i=1000516839223
 

For anyone who hasn’t seen Chris Simms RB rankings. He has Najee at 4 and if you listen to his podcast he actually makes some valid points. I think Najee will be a fine starting RB in the league but you better be ok with a lot of 4-9 yard runs and not many 20+ yarders. Simms thinks Harris is a 4.60-4.70 40 type guy.

He has Etienne at #1 and starts talking about him around the 46 minute mark for anyone interested. He makes a lot of the same points I’ve made on Etienne throughout this thread. He compares him to Dalvin, Kareem Hunt, and Kamara. I see more Aaron Jones than Kamara. He’s got better long speed than AK but AK is a much more polished receiver. 

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47 minutes ago, bigben07MVP said:

I think Najee will be a fine starting RB in the league but you better be ok with a lot of 4-9 yard runs and not many 20+ yarders. 

I know I am probably the weirdo, but I absolutely am okay with this in the NFL. I want consistency running the ball. Big plays at the pro level often come at the expense of someone on the other side of the ball messing up. Either it's an awful defensive call against your play, someone gets out or takes the wrong gap, missed tackles or terrible angles. While it is part of the talent of the player that helps cause some of that, big plays still often rely on someone messing up. 

I did a numbers experiment a while back for LeVeon Bell when he was at his height. I compared him to all the other to RB's, specifically Gurley, at the time. If you removed their biggest run (which I viewed as the least repeatable) Bell's average carry dropped from like 4.9 to 4.4 where Gurley went from 4.7 to 3.2. These are made up as I dont remember the actual math, but Gruley dropped over a full yard per carry where Bell only dropped about a half. Removing all the big plays had Bell leading the league in YPC by a decent margin. 

I want consistency out of the running back. Can I get 3-4 every time I hand you the ball? 20 carries for 100 yards and an 80 yard TD run looks great until you remember that the 19 other carriers averaged just over 1 yard. If we hand the ball off twice I want 3rd and under 5, not 3rd and 8 but its okay we will bust one soon (maybe?). 

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@Dcash4 that’s one way to look at it. I agree with almost all your points. I definitely want consistency out of my RB, however my thinking is if you’re going to spend a FRP on a RB he better be able to offer some dynamic play-making ability. Bell at his peak was the exception, he didn’t have great speed but he was SO dynamic in other ways, from his patient running style, change of direction, route running, jump cuts etc. He was more getting 5-12 yards with absurd consistency which made his lack of 50+ yard runs ok. Also we had an much more dynamic passing attack back then so we didn’t really need to rely on him as much for huge chunk plays. I’m not saying Harris can’t develop into a similar player, but asking him to make that kind of a jump is asking a lot. Again, I would be fine taking Harris I’m more explaining why I strongly prefer Etienne. 

One point I disagree with is that big plays at the pro level come at the expense of a defensive player messing up. With the talent at the pro level, you can have a guy miss an assignment or blow a tackle, but if the ball-carrier doesn’t have that burst/contact balance/long speed, often times that doesn’t exactly guarantee a 50+ yard run. Often times with Bell I’d watch him juke 2 linebackers and break to the 2nd level only to get quickly hawked down or cutoff by whoever the safety was because they were just that much faster than him. Compare that with guys like Dalvin, Barkley, Chris Johnson back in the day etc. I want a guy who if he gets past 1 or 2 LBs, your eyes start getting big because you know no safety or corner will be able to catch him. 

With that being said, I remember how frustrating it was with a guy like Willie Parker at times where it would be like 10 0-2 yard runs before he would bust out a 75 yarder. I don’t see Etienne as that kind of guy. His contact balance, burst, explosiveness etc are so elite that even when nothing is there he will still be able to grind out 3-4 yard runs on a consistent basis. Also, he just started working on his receiving game before the 2020 season, I think there’s still a lot of room for him to grow there. 

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Good points by @Dcash4 and @bigben07MVP

I slightly lean toward the breakaway speed argument. I compare it to a baseball team. It's a lot harder to score runs when you have to rely on 2-3 hits. If you've got a bopper, he can hit a homerun and score runs even if you don't have 2-3 hits. You only need 1 "hit." 

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13 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

Good points by @Dcash4 and @bigben07MVP

I slightly lean toward the breakaway speed argument. I compare it to a baseball team. It's a lot harder to score runs when you have to rely on 2-3 hits. If you've got a bopper, he can hit a homerun and score runs even if you don't have 2-3 hits. You only need 1 "hit." 

That is why I would go with Etienne over Harris

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3 hours ago, bigben07MVP said:

With the talent at the pro level, you can have a guy miss an assignment or blow a tackle, but if the ball-carrier doesn’t have that burst/contact balance/long speed, often times that doesn’t exactly guarantee a 50+ yard run.

You are right, and I don't mean to make it seem like its 100% defensive flaw, often times the offensive players ability can lead to forced issues. But I just watched a highlight of the top big running plays from 2020 and there are just so many that you see that are perfectly blocked against a perfect(ly bad) defensive call, or a safety taking an awful angle to put the hammer down and being off (aka, the Sean Davis), or linebackers flowing way too far to the wrong gap. The very first play was like a 30 yard TD run by CEH against Houston and its entirely because the ILB dives at the runner with his head down instead of actually filling the gap and the safety coming down out of control loses his feet. When I evaluate that runner on tape I would say, its great we scored from 28 out -- but this is a 4-8 yard run that we benefited greatly from.

I am a huge proponent of "repeatability" on offense. I don't view a lot of those big runs as repeatable. Often something needs to go wrong/right to account for them. 

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Kiper's latest mock:

1.24: Najee Harris, RB Alabama
2.55: Dillon Radunz, OT North Dakota St.

Doesn't seem too bad, but I was more interested in things leaning towards our discussions yesterday about trading for Fields. Kiper has....well, its just a god awful trade idea that has Atlanta and Miami trading picks so the Dolphins take Pitts at 4 and the Falcons grab Trey Lance at 6. I just...why? Anyway....

But the next QB taken is Justin Fields to the Patriots -- at pick 10, making a trade with Dallas

Quote

The Cowboys don't need a quarterback, so they'd be thrilled to get an offer like this and move down only a few spots, because their biggest holes are on defense and they can get a good player at No. 15.

I think the same of his quote can be said about 24. The Patriots have the better pick now, but in terms of projection - it's a Bill Belichick team with a lot of opt outs returning, second year of Cam Newton and a re-made offensive line, and tons of FA spending. This could start looking like a mid-late 20's pick, where the Steelers look like a top 10 in 2022. It would really depend on who the Cowboys have in their sights in 2021, but I really do think this move makes a lot of sense in the realm of possibility. 

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@Dcash4 I was a few minutes away from coming here to post almost that exact same thing earlier. 

This shows almost an exact scenario of events that need to happen for us to land Fields:

- 49ers take Jones

- Only one of ATL, DET, CAR, DEN can take a QB and that QB has to be Lance.

- DAL or NYG have to be willing to trade down

- Tomlin/Colbert have to be willing to outbid NE or CHI

In this scenario, I think we toss in 87 and a 2022 4th round pick to beat out New England. Man how thrilling of a draft night that would be to out-duel Belichick to trade up and draft his QB.

With that being said, I think we are taking a 10 second clip of Tomlin at OSU’s pro day and going too far with it. I don’t want to build myself up for disappointment on draft night .

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4 minutes ago, August4th said:

NE showing interest in fields

If Tombert shows up to Fields 2nd pro day then I’ll start getting my hopes up.

Does anyone remember if there was any rumors of Chiefs trading up the year they went and got Mahomes?

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