Spinning Tires: Steelers 2021 Offseason and Beyond...

[43M]

4 hours ago, wwhickok said:

For me, Ben not being here and JJ Watt being here are 2 very separate things.

JJ Watt is a player I've always enjoyed watching so the idea of him being here excites me.

Ben, he has done a lot for this organization. And If he retires there is going to be 'growing pains' but I believe it's time to make the transition 

Id like Watt here, but it doesnt make much sense for him or us.

First off, Watt wouldnt have a strong chance to win a championship here unless our next two offseasons were about as perfect as you can get....including somehow finding an upgrade to Ben pretty much immediately.    Thats extremely unlikely to happen.

Secondly, even if Ben retired and we cleared up more cap space, Watt does not fit a major need.   Sure, we could use him, but at the cost of upgrading other positions that are more critical needs.    We are set to lose two CBs, and maybe 3 if we really need to clear some cap.     We have no decent RBs under contract.     We dont have a starting LT or center.      The only reason people want to force JJ to the Steelers is because his bros are on the team.      From a team building perspective, it doesnt make a ton of sense aside from the fact that JJ is a great player to have on any team.

The only way I ever see TJ and JJ playing together is a) if we somehow dont retain TJ long term and he goes to whatever team his bro is on or b) in 3 or so years, JJ comes here to perhaps finish up his career.

[VigilantZombie]

I agree with you 43 and frankly, even though I know it won't happen I'd rather keep Juju

[Dcash4]

I don’t really get the “Steelers don’t make sense to JJ” bit.

We literally have two members of his family on the team. If that matters in any sense to him, then we make all the sense in the world. 

I have more thoughts on all the JJ stuff, maybe tomorrow. No I don’t think it’s likely as I think it’s more likely the Packers make a run and offer more cash and an opportunity to “hometown” hero it in Wisconsin...but no one else offers family. 

Edited February 14, 2021 by Dcash4

[Dcash4]

Not sure how I did it, but accidental pocket quote post. Ignore me. 

Edited February 14, 2021 by Dcash4

[Dcash4]

Why I think JJ Watt works, and works well, for the Steelers:

1) Need on the DL:

Lemme read some names to you: Henry Mondeaux, Carlos Davis, Isaiah Buggs. Opening this one up with a bang. Are you pumped up yet? Those are the names listed on the current depth chart behind Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt. 

Cam and Tuitt played around 80% of the snaps this year, which is mighty impressive because both guys missed a game each. Alualu played over 40% of the snaps on the season (also missed a game), he is a FA. Buggs, Wormley, and Mondeaux all played 100+ snaps and Carlos Davis rag in over 50. That's 7 players on the D-Line getting snaps. Going back to the names listed above currently on the roster...yeah, there is a depth concern. 

JJ Watt's ability to play a high end 3-4 DE immediately fits a depth need at a critical space on the roster allowing for better rotational success and an actual pass rush threat from the spell players -- something we did not have before. 

2) Need at Edge:

Lemme read some more names to you: [ B L A N K ]. That's it. That's the list of players behind Highsmith and TJ with OLB snaps. Ola is a RFA, and likely back. Does that name get your engine running? Whoa baby. 

Highsmith was too good to bring back Bud at $16M per to for depth, but depth is needed. Both TJ and Highsmith will be around 85%ers, but there are still quality snaps currently going to .... no one. 

JJ Watt has the listing of a 3-4 End, but also often plays on the edge. He fits really well actually in a sub-package based league in a 4 man line on the edge (AKA, nickel). If playing time was a concern of yours in why we would pay $10M per for a guy like JJ, it shouldn't be. Between DL and Edge, he is going to receiver starter quality snaps. 

3) Fit:

I keep seeing people ask "how do you use JJ on this team?"...you....i mean...you put him on the field? JJ has played, and has success, lining up all over the DLine. Its the dominant thing that has made him unique and able to run in a successful 3-4 or 4-3. Edge, 3-4 DE, NT....he has lined up everyone and won. He is a weapon in terms of pass rush, which makes him a perfect solution for our depth issues at both the DL and Edge spots. 

This has also been a defense that run by Tomlin has shown it doesn't care what formation we run out of. We have seen 3-3, 4-3, 3-4, 1-5, etc. If we got JJ, they would figure out the alignment. 

4) Why?

Did anyone here watch the Super Bowl? Ya'll see Mahomes turn into Trent Dilfer, completing 53% of his passes? Ya'll see Aaron Rodgers lose both games to Tampa? Why?

Pressure. Pressure kills any god-like QB. Sacks and pressure are factor when you look at Mahomes games below 60% completion or Aaron Rodgers two loses to TB while taking 9 total sacks. It's about getting after the QB. Yes, we are good at it, but it needs to be constant. See those names listed in 1 and 2? That's not going to get it done over 60 minutes. Neither is blitzing to solve everything like we did against the Browns, allowing them to nickel and dime chunk plays in vacates spaces. 

Before anyone hits that quote button, I need you to READ the following sentence: Yes, I understand that the Chiefs were missing their staring OL. But how do you beat a quality O-Line? Have better players on your DL. We have a great starting 4 in nickel, but that's about it. More horses. More pressure. Less blitzing. 

The second why? What's the best way to transition from a QB to a new era? Have a really strong defense so you can win games 21-17. We have a good defense, but that's the side to build and maintain while we flip the O. (also, we are not going to re-build, stop saying that). 

5) How?

This ones just for fun, but man, I would love to see this happen (while I still think its a long shot). I envision 5 man fronts (also called a 3-4) with Highsmith - Watt - Tuitt - Heyward - TJ. Some defenses rely on fundamentals and being in the right spot all the time working together....this would would work on destruction of these guys feasting on 1 on 1's all day. I know some will complain that we dont have a true NT, but after you get done playing with your time machine let me know if there are any low level ones in FA. I'd love to run a 5-1-5  with Bush and Edmunds playing the middle of the field in the LBers position and having Sutton next to Minkah with eyes on the QB. Destruction up front, athletic tackle conscious speed in the middle, play makers in the back. Gimme. 

JJ was doubled at the highest rate of any edge player last year, and was 8th in pass rush win rate (better than Bud). He was also 6th in Run stop win rate (also, better than Bud). Since we are on the subject of Bud, he would be cheaper (most likely) and fill the need of 2 positions rather than 1. He has position flexibility in an NFL that's defenses rely on flexibility and is still a productive and destructive pass rusher. He adds depth where we need it and leadership when we are losing it. He would be an absolutely GREAT piece. But doesn't mean it will happen. 

 

[43M]

23 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

I don’t really get the “Steelers don’t make sense to JJ” bit.

We literally have two members of his family on the team. If that matters in any sense to him, then we make all the sense in the world.

And thats literally the only good argument there is. 

And just to clarify, in no way am I saying he isnt a good fit or that I dont WANT him, but when you factor in what JJ really wants (to compete for a SB). how much its going to cost (very likely more than we can pay him), and what that would mean for the rest of the team if we somehow did SIGN him...the arguments for signing him are narrow minded.  And as I said...his bros being on the teams is, by far, the biggest reason he is linked to us.  

You talk about lack of depth at DL and edge (which is true), but completely ignore that we dont even have STARTERS at several positions.....and signing JJ would mean likely sacrificing perhaps MULTIPLE starters.

Would I complain if we signed JJ?   Hell no....but there would be glaring holes at other positions to support that signing.  

Edited February 15, 2021 by 43M

[43M]

4 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

Why I think JJ Watt works, and works well, for the Steelers:

1) Need on the DL:

Lemme read some names to you: Henry Mondeaux, Carlos Davis, Isaiah Buggs. Opening this one up with a bang. Are you pumped up yet? Those are the names listed on the current depth chart behind Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt. 

Cam and Tuitt played around 80% of the snaps this year, which is mighty impressive because both guys missed a game each. Alualu played over 40% of the snaps on the season (also missed a game), he is a FA. Buggs, Wormley, and Mondeaux all played 100+ snaps and Carlos Davis rag in over 50. That's 7 players on the D-Line getting snaps. Going back to the names listed above currently on the roster...yeah, there is a depth concern. 

JJ Watt's ability to play a high end 3-4 DE immediately fits a depth need at a critical space on the roster allowing for better rotational success and an actual pass rush threat from the spell players -- something we did not have before. 

2) Need at Edge:

Lemme read some more names to you: [ B L A N K ]. That's it. That's the list of players behind Highsmith and TJ with OLB snaps. Ola is a RFA, and likely back. Does that name get your engine running? Whoa baby. 

Highsmith was too good to bring back Bud at $16M per to for depth, but depth is needed. Both TJ and Highsmith will be around 85%ers, but there are still quality snaps currently going to .... no one. 

JJ Watt has the listing of a 3-4 End, but also often plays on the edge. He fits really well actually in a sub-package based league in a 4 man line on the edge (AKA, nickel). If playing time was a concern of yours in why we would pay $10M per for a guy like JJ, it shouldn't be. Between DL and Edge, he is going to receiver starter quality snaps. 

Of course we could use him as depth.   I dont think a single fan  of any team would ever object to having JJ Watt on the DL rotation.

However, you have to factor reality in.     Realities like ones you bring up....

 

4 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

4) Why?

Did anyone here watch the Super Bowl? Ya'll see Mahomes turn into Trent Dilfer, completing 53% of his passes? Ya'll see Aaron Rodgers lose both games to Tampa? Why?

Pressure. Pressure kills any god-like QB. Sacks and pressure are factor when you look at Mahomes games below 60% completion or Aaron Rodgers two loses to TB while taking 9 total sacks. It's about getting after the QB. Yes, we are good at it, but it needs to be constant. See those names listed in 1 and 2? That's not going to get it done over 60 minutes. Neither is blitzing to solve everything like we did against the Browns, allowing them to nickel and dime chunk plays in vacates spaces. 

Before anyone hits that quote button, I need you to READ the following sentence: Yes, I understand that the Chiefs were missing their staring OL. But how do you beat a quality O-Line? Have better players on your DL. We have a great starting 4 in nickel, but that's about it. More horses. More pressure. Less blitzing. 

The second why? What's the best way to transition from a QB to a new era? Have a really strong defense so you can win games 21-17. We have a good defense, but that's the side to build and maintain while we flip the O. (also, we are not going to re-build, stop saying that). 

5) How?

This ones just for fun, but man, I would love to see this happen (while I still think its a long shot). I envision 5 man fronts (also called a 3-4) with Highsmith - Watt - Tuitt - Heyward - TJ. Some defenses rely on fundamentals and being in the right spot all the time working together....this would would work on destruction of these guys feasting on 1 on 1's all day. I know some will complain that we dont have a true NT, but after you get done playing with your time machine let me know if there are any low level ones in FA. I'd love to run a 5-1-5  with Bush and Edmunds playing the middle of the field in the LBers position and having Sutton next to Minkah with eyes on the QB. Destruction up front, athletic tackle conscious speed in the middle, play makers in the back. Gimme. 

JJ was doubled at the highest rate of any edge player last year, and was 8th in pass rush win rate (better than Bud). He was also 6th in Run stop win rate (also, better than Bud). Since we are on the subject of Bud, he would be cheaper (most likely) and fill the need of 2 positions rather than 1. He has position flexibility in an NFL that's defenses rely on flexibility and is still a productive and destructive pass rusher. He adds depth where we need it and leadership when we are losing it. He would be an absolutely GREAT piece. But doesn't mean it will happen. 

 

1) By that logic, every single team could use JJ.      He is a great player and would be an amazing addition to any team.    However, teams also have to factor in needs before they go signing players.

2)  The fact that he is still such a disruptive player means demand for him will be high.....from teams that have much more to spend and are in better position to win a SB next year than we are.

One last time....if not for Derek and TJ on the team, there would be nowhere near this much discussion about bringing him to the Steelers.   Not because he couldnt be a difference maker for us....its obvious he would be.....but its just not realistic without significantly sacrificing quality elsewhere.

Can we pay him nearly as much as other teams?  No.
Can we give him the opportunity to win championships that numerous other teams can?  No.

From a fantasy perspective, its nice to think about.

In reality, the chances of it happening are incredibly slim because it just doesnt make sense for either side when you look at THE ENTIRE PICTURE.  

 

 

[Dcash4]

3 hours ago, 43M said:

but there would be glaring holes at other positions to support that signing. 

Such is life in the NFL. 

In reality, it’s 6 of one, half dozen of the other in terms of roster building. If JJ cost $10m, would you rather spend it on a mediocre LT and C? You can do that for sure. But I see it this way: we have a good/great defense...if I can make it great/elite while putting all other assets in the draft on O...I’ll do that because the success of the D lowers the bar for the offense. Like it or not, it’s very realistic to assume a blind side of Chuks (who profiles better at LT) and a realistic cheap chance to resign banner and get a guy like Finney after he is cut and focus on the draft.  Personally I’ll take that over throwing money at players who, at best, are marginally better because we have “holes” and get a better player in Watt. 

2 hours ago, 43M said:

By that logic, every single team could use JJ

If you have any interest in winning, 32 teams should be interested in JJ Watt. I say 32, because even the Texans should be like “hey dude, I know we left things a little harsh, but it’s our bad”. 

2 hours ago, 43M said:

reality

You keep using this word, or variations of it, but the reality of a Steelers off-season is that our tackles will be a chucks, Banner, and a Beachum style pick up with eyes on a draft pick, C will be a Finney/draft style, and we can all throw our hands up I’m the air for the black hole that is the tightend position league wide. Retain Sutton and there are not really “holes” as much as “hopes to improve” but that improvement will come via the draft. That doesn’t mean those guys are studs at those positions but — such is life in the NFL. The one thing the Steelers have shown the willingness to do is spend resources on guys that become available that they believe will be difference makers, most recently guys like Minkah, Nelson, and Haden but all the way back to a Farrier type too. 

End of the day, I still don’t think it’s likely. I’d put it around 15%. I think a team like the Packers are going to be able to offer significantly more and still have a sentimental feel good story like playing for his hometown of sorts. I’m not gonna act like I know if a championship is his driving force (though, a lot are throwing that around) when 90% of players never end up with hardware. I do know the brothers are close and his parents have done their best to be at every game their sons play - even flying multiple times in a day or going separately to games. So family matters, to whatever extent. There is no guarantee of tomorrow in the league. Derek could get cut, JJ’s play could drop off, TJs knee could give out (forgive me, father)...so if they want it to happen, this is the chance. 

There’s a need. There’s a fit. There’s a connection. There’s a lot more going on her that makes it happen that what’s being sold. For me, I’d rather spend $10m on an impact player like Watt and make our defense that much better than sign the trash available in FA at T or C and hope we improve (but won’t, and those guys will be replaced by the draft picks we go afteR regardless). 

Edited February 16, 2021 by Dcash4

[warfelg]

My personal cap would be if JJ is willing to come for $6mil to play with TJ and "DJ" (can't believe he didn't do it), come one over.  If he wants more than that then sorry bruh.

[AFF]

11 minutes ago, warfelg said:

My personal cap would be if JJ is willing to come for $6mil to play with TJ and "DJ" (can't believe he didn't do it), come one over.  If he wants more than that then sorry bruh.

That be possible I’m guessing long as his year 1 salary was $1 mill or so...that allow a SB of $10 mill spread over a 2 year deal.

[MOSteelers56]

I wonder how many buyers on the Center market there will be this offseason? If the contenders have their Center position figured out, we could maybe grab Alex Mack on a short deal. If he wants to keep playing I'm sure he'd want to play for a contender now that his career is coming to an end. If all the actual contenders have a center, he may come here. He's an ideal signing for us. He could start this year while a rookie(hopefully Trey Hill) learns behind him. Dude's been a rock at his position for a long time. 

[AFF]

5 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I wonder how many buyers on the Center market there will be this offseason? If the contenders have their Center position figured out, we could maybe grab Alex Mack on a short deal. If he wants to keep playing I'm sure he'd want to play for a contender now that his career is coming to an end. If all the actual contenders have a center, he may come here. He's an ideal signing for us. He could start this year while a rookie(hopefully Trey Hill) learns behind him. Dude's been a rock at his position for a long time. 

They’re gonna sign a stopgap vet and draft a Center somewhere in the 1st 3 rounds...it’s their usual MO for bigger “needs”

[MOSteelers56]

1 hour ago, AFF said:

They’re gonna sign a stopgap vet and draft a Center somewhere in the 1st 3 rounds...it’s their usual MO for bigger “needs”

I agree. I think Mack fits the need. Kind of a Flozell Adams type signing. 

[Dcash4]

Jesse James is a clear second fiddle to a good starter, getting paid a higher amount, has a new regime coming in, and is in a very cut-able part of his contract. 

His comments on the way out kinda made it seem like he was happy to be gone...but he is a guy id love to see back. Solid #2...especially if Ebron is your #1. Fill that void and draft someone. 

[MOSteelers56]

Did anyone see what Kaboly reported about Banner’s exit interview? Apparently Tomlin told Banner he was the plan at LT. I think if he continues to trim down, there’s no reason he couldn’t be a serviceable LT at least. He’s got the bloodlines, the skill, and he seems to have the motivation now.