RedGold Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, incognito_man said: that tweet, if anything, strengthens the argument for using DVOA... Chiefs beating 4 out of the 6 teams ranked above them, on the road. Makes me pause greatly. Who knows maybe it is good, that’s just really eye catching 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, incognito_man said: that tweet, if anything, strengthens the argument for using DVOA... So you agree that KC should get a lower ranking, dropping two places, for playing their backups in a meaningless week 17 game? interesting argument for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, Chiefer said: So you agree that KC should get a lower ranking, dropping two places, for playing their backups in a meaningless week 17 game? interesting argument for sure face palm did you even read it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, samsel23 said: Chiefs beating 4 out of the 6 teams ranked above them, on the road. Makes me pause greatly. Who knows maybe it is good, that’s just really eye catching If you accept the caveat (as every reasonable person would), the Chiefs are behind 3 such teams: TB, NO and BUF. They were all close games, it's not unreasonable that all those teams are on the same tier, separated by very little. DVOA isn't predictive, it simply is a snapshot of what happened. All those teams are capable of beating each other any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, incognito_man said: face palm did you even read it lol Yeah it said KC would go up to top 5 if you take out week 17, but still according to their rankings they’re only 7th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, incognito_man said: If you accept the caveat (as every reasonable person would), the Chiefs are behind 3 such teams: TB, NO and BUF. They were all close games, it's not unreasonable that all those teams are on the same tier, separated by very little. DVOA isn't predictive, it simply is a snapshot of what happened. All those teams are capable of beating each other any day. Yet the Chiefs won, each time on the road. It’s not like they split the difference, which statistically would make sense. But each one lost to the Chiefs, a couple were blown out. The others had huge deficits to overcome and pulled it in close at the end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedGold Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, incognito_man said: If you accept the caveat (as every reasonable person would), the Chiefs are behind 3 such teams: TB, NO and BUF. They were all close games, it's not unreasonable that all those teams are on the same tier, separated by very little. DVOA isn't predictive, it simply is a snapshot of what happened. All those teams are capable of beating each other any day. Fair enough. I’m just stating, stats are stats. And the fact they are ranked below multiple teams that they beat on the road, makes it questionable. It can take all the stats it wants, but it can’t account for game situations, Which was my original point in that KC is not that bad against the run, they are constantly in positions where they don’t care if the opponent drains the clock with long possessions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Chiefer said: Yeah it said KC would go up to top 5 if you take out week 17, but still according to their rankings they’re only 7th DVOA isn't predictive, it simply is a snapshot of what happened. Week 17 happened, and they said "hey, this is what actually happened but obviously there's a caveat here." They are literally telling the reader what the Chiefs rank would be if you ignore that game...What more do you want lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, samsel23 said: but it can’t account for game situations, this is actually the biggest strength of DVOA because it does EXACTLY this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedGold Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, incognito_man said: this is actually the biggest strength of DVOA because it does EXACTLY this So it accounts for a defense giving up 4-5 yards a pop in the 2nd half with a two possession lead and being okay with that? just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, samsel23 said: So it accounts for a defense giving up 4-5 yards a pop in the 2nd half with a two possession lead and being okay with that? just wondering Yes https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawgX Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, onejayhawk said: Reasonable, but Hunt could have survived what was on the video if he was the one bringing it forward. You're right that videos get public impact, but the one in Hunt's case was relatively tame. Cleveland's two headed rushing attack is potent, but its 50 yards per game shy of Baltimore, who the Chiefs played. The Ravens had 158 yards, 33 short of their average, and 97 yards were by Lamar Jackson. Don't kid yourself that Chubb is on Henry's level. He's good but not that good. The Chiefs defense improved six positions in Y/G rankings compared to last season. It's hard to make the case that it is similar to last year, much less that it is worse. I see that you argue DVOA, but that's weak. The bottom line is that the Chiefs defense and the Browns offense are both right in the middle of the league. it will be interesting how things go when Cleveland has the ball. The Browns defense very comparable to their offense, but the Chiefs offense is a bit better. Ha. Chubb is better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedGold Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, DawgX said: Ha. Chubb is better. Agree, I hate this matchup. I wanted to play the Ravens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawgX Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, samsel23 said: Agree, I hate this matchup. I wanted to play the Ravens. Eh, I wouldn't be too worried as a Chiefs fan. If our offense plays as well as it's capable of we might be able to make this a good game, but our offense isn't 100% consistent. And your offense will lit up our defense, which has made QBs like Mike Glennon look competent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, incognito_man said: DVOA isn't predictive, it simply is a snapshot of what happened. Week 17 happened, and they said "hey, this is what actually happened but obviously there's a caveat here." They are literally telling the reader what the Chiefs rank would be if you ignore that game...What more do you want lol Through a tweet from some random FO guy. Because that’s where I get my statistical information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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