2020 Divisional Round: (5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (2) New Orleans Saints

[jofos]

7 minutes ago, kramxel said:

Feels hard to believe, you wouldn't have been at least a playoff team with Brady.

Not accounting for behind the scenes drama, but I feel he has done better with worse in NE.

Possibly would have been a playoff team but things happened and Tom moved on. Patriots were in cap hell this year and things will be better in the future. Either way I have been a Patriots fan for about 40 years and all of it wasn't as good as the last 20. I'm okay with the the way things are, that said I really don't care if Brady wins a superbowl somewhere else. 

[Asciimo]

24 minutes ago, wwhickok said:

To be fair, the system Arians is running is basically the same as what Brady worked in for NE. 

dumbest thing i've seen posted so far and I don't have kirill blocked yet

[Pats#1]

15 minutes ago, Kip Smithers said:

Alright next week decides it. Brady wins next week he’s GOAT. Rodgers wins next week, he’s GOAT. Deal?

Rodgers could win 2 more SBs and Brady could retire after getting trounced next week....Brady is still gonna be considered the GOAT by vast majority. 

[Broncofan]

On 1/11/2021 at 7:57 PM, Broncofan said:

If TAM wins this one, it's living proof on how hard it is for 1 team to beat another 3x in the same year.

Because as much as I'd love to see TAM win, NO is a nightmare matchup for TAM.

For NO's O: 

-Their OL negates the pass rush, which is the key weapon to protecting their coverage.   When TAM can't generate pressure, their CB's get exposed.     TAM then is forced to go into zone coverage.  

-Michael Thomas is a zone killer.   That's where the combo of no pressure really hurts TAM's D.

-Their RB tandem keeps them fresh, and Kamara's pass receiving prowess, combined with Thomas, allows them to use the pass game as a run game proxy.   That takes away TAM's key ability to stuff the run, and then make teams so one-dimensional.   

Those 3 reasons are why NO just ran roughshod over TAM last game.    Not much has changed since that time.     

On the D side, NO does 3 things at such a high level that take away TB's biggest assets:

- They're just as good as TAM at stuffing the run.  

- They can generate inside pressure, and Demario Davis is a nightmare problem for them, they can't account for him (or the CB/S blitz NO drew up).    

-Lattimore negates Evans, which then makes it the Godwin/AB show.     TAM's lack of a true safety valve RB really hurts them - there's no James White to lean on.    There's no coincidence why Godwin does so well in NO games - because he gets the best matchup.   But if TB12 doesn't have time, it limits Godwin's (& AB's) ability to make big plays.    And it puts a ton of pressure to sustain drives that way.

________________________________________

Having said that, there's a path, albeit one where a lot of things have to go right for TB.   The  key to victory lies in 3 key areas, where they've not had success so far:

-Can TAM D find a way to generate pressure?   If they can't, I don't see how they can cover NO's WR's with their CB's.   A big help would come with Devin White being healthy - one wrinkle he added over the past 2 months is the read-delay blitz.   I think TAM will need something fresh like that, to overcome the NO OL.   Doing more of the same won't work

-Can the TAM OL find a way to protect Brady?  Now, the last game vs. NO - they were without their best OL, Ali Marpet.    That was a crushing loss.   So that should help.   But make no mistake, Brady can't deal with sustained pressure.     One other difference on O - AB was just getting integrated into the O.  He *might* be the safety valve Brady can use in this game.  But it's an "if", not a given.

-Can they win the TO game?   They certainly can't lose it, like they did in the 2nd game.    

The main equalizer IMO for TAM is that they likely get a fully healthy team back (assuming Evans came out of last game ok, a grade 1 MCL is far better on week 2 than week 1).     Marpet in the OL, and White back, would be huge.     And TAM certainly has a ton of film on what NO does, to come out with counters.   But NO deserves to be the favorite, and not because of HFA (which this year, is completely overrated).   That familiarity is why winning 3x is so hard. But man, it's still hard not to like NO straight up.

It sucks in a lot of ways, because I think NO & TAM are the 2 most complete teams left in the NFC (LAR D gets mad love, and Akers is legit, but man, that's a vulnerable pass O, while GB's D is IMO by far the weakest unit left of the 8 teams remaining - suspect run D, and a lot of trouble in pass rush).    

 

Full credit to Tampa, as they got A+ in the 3 keys to what seemed like an improbable victory:

1.   DC Todd Bowles realized he had to go man coverage with safety / ILB help on Thomas, and send pressure.  Not zone, which Brees & M-Thomas just feast on.   And the result - zero catches, and Brees getting more rattled as the game wore on.   Once it was clear Brees could not burn them deep, the D kept playing closer to the LOS, and took more run / short patterns away.

2.   The OL did a fantastic job of protecting Brady.    He was quick on his reads, and the run game was miles better, which obviously helped - but make no mistake, Brady not getting inside pressure all the time, made a world of difference.   He made money throws to Scotty Miller (and got away with one bad out to Miller later) and Tyler Johnson (who made the catch of the game to keep the go-ahead drive going). 

3.  Last, but certainly not least - the TO's.   TAM was downright awful again in the 1Q, going 3-and-out on their 2 drives there, and were so, so, so very lucky to only be down 6-0.   The 2 TO's kept them in the game in a massive way, and kept them on track - and then the back-breaker 3rd TO up 23-20.  Short fields helped TAM's O so much.

Make no mistake - NO's limits on O and in particular, Brees' lack of downfield ability, were a massive part of the story.   But this was as much TAM earning it, and rightfully being the better team....today.

I'd say if NO played TAM with the same rosters, NO would win 7x....but TO's always swing games with this kind of normal matchup nightmare.   I have to say that TAM matches up so well with GB (whereas Brees going to Lambeau would have been lambs to the slaughter).   I think next week shapes up to a fantastic game. 

Sucks for Saints & Browns fans today (and Ravens/Rams fans) - but it sets up for a doozy of a AFCG / NFCG.  As Bart said...

Edited January 18, 2021 by Broncofan

[EvilenFroggen]

46 minutes ago, DannyB said:

[ILoveTheVikings]

Just now, childofpudding said:

No dude, you don't understand. What Brady is doing is not impressive at all because all the hypothetical QBs in the hypothetical future will be top 5 QBs at age 43.

 

Brady is overrated because he might get injured😄

I don't remember how long ago that was on the old dawn (Origin was for Tomlinson). That was during Ladainian Tomlinson's prime, wasn't it?

[Troy Brown]

2 minutes ago, childofpudding said:

No dude, you don't understand. What Brady is doing is not impressive at all because all the hypothetical QBs in the hypothetical future will be top 5 QBs at age 43.

 

dumb dumb argument. i only look at gameday threads here. i hope that hasn't been made a point 

[Pats#1]

20 minutes ago, Jetzger said:

I can see it now:  It's 2040 and 63 year old Brady ran out of digits so he had to resort to getting a super bowl nose ring. 

He’s wearing his 11th ring, you just can’t see it when he’s clothed.

[DannyB]

7 minutes ago, childofpudding said:

Love Brees, always have. One of the more underrated QBs in history, all because he happened to play the same time as Brady and Manning.

Meh. I don't think it's underrated. I think on balance, he's fairly accurately rated.

I mean yeah he played at the same time as Peyton and Brady, but also like...he was certainly more than welcome to make more than one Super Bowl.

[SkippyX]

Another bonus today. I can go to NFLN now and not have to listen to Prime Time make the playoffs all about him.

[Kip Smithers]

4 minutes ago, Pats#1 said:

Rodgers could win 2 more SBs and Brady could retire after getting trounced next week....Brady is still gonna be considered the GOAT by vast majority. 

Nah bruh

[Pats#1]

23 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Closer.....but

[Troy Brown]

Just now, Kip Smithers said:

Nah bruh

lmao man how you always on the wrong side

[SkippyX]

1 minute ago, DannyB said:

Meh. I don't think it's underrated. I think on balance, he's fairly accurately rated.

I mean yeah he played at the same time as Peyton and Brady, but also like...he was certainly more than welcome to make more than one Super Bowl.

Look at his first 9 playoff games

Look at his last 9 playoff games.

He was not underrated by being treated as NFL royalty but not at Brady's level.

The worst Brees detractors think he is the 7th or 9th best QB of all-time instead of top 5.

Underrated and Brees is not a thing.

[Pats#1]

I’m sitting here eating a piece of NY Giants themed birthday cake from my brother in laws party earlier, who despises Brady with a passion and constantly wishes injury upon him.

 

Cake has never tasted better.