Would adding Matthew Stafford make an already good team a Super Bowl contender?

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

5 minutes ago, Forge said:

That entire group gets massively overrated...particularly by their own fans. 

The niner twitterverse is going nuts over the Watson thing...and not in a good way. I seriously saw someone say that they wouldn't trade for Watson because they wouldn't trade assets for a minor upgrade at the QB position. 

Crack is a hell of a drug. 

that person should be shot

out of a cannon and into space

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

If you gave him a bunch of weapons in the passing game, a solid running attack and a Top 10 defense- then he has a chance to win one

So is that an endorsement or an indictment of his abilities ?

I lean towards indictment, because if you give all of that support to many QBs ( as listed above) then its possible - which strongly suggests there really isn't anything special about Matthew Stafford. He's a talented thrower and a good value in fantasy, but has shown he lacks the ability to elevate others and be a field general who can lead his team past the many hurdles that lie on the path to a SB

He's never strung together a series of playoff wins, losing the first game each time with an anemic 87 passer rating and only 4TDs and 3 INTs over 3 contests. Can he win one ? Sure, but I'd bet against it and there's really little evidence to the contrary after 12 years in the league, 8 of which were losing seasons. His career AV is 102, putting him at # 152 in league history.

This isn't a hatchet job, its just the cold hard reality of the situation. He's welcome to prove me wrong...and he might get the chance with another team.

This is a fair asssessment, but I would only offer a couple of expanded points:

1.  Stafford's coaching staffs the last 3-4 years have been incredibly underwhelming - these are staffs that have come up with the idea that AP should be the focus of the run game (and thus give the predictability for D's to hedge against).  Or the strategy of letting the O try and drain clock, and shorten the game - which again, leans on the run game - and thus put Stafford in very predictable passing downs.  I can actually defend the 2nd strategy, but both philosophies certainly puts one arm tied behind Stafford's back. 

2. The lack of good run game is pretty much a career-long phenomenon.   

I'm not picking on A-Rod, he's elite - but the comp above and career contrast is remarkable.

There's no doubt Stafford's best seasons were about compiling stats in garbage time.    That's a very fair criticism.   But we should recognize Stafford has faced some career-long challenges.    And he's had some years with a lot of comebacks - and those have been on his shoulders.   And we've seen his arm talent shine many times.    Maybe he would struggle if he's the focus and allowed to cook - but it's very fair to say he's really never been given a sustained chance.

I do think Stafford would be a big difference maker if a team is good, but whose biggest weakness is at QB.   That's SF, DEN - and to be upfront, I don't think DEN's D has the MIKE, or the DL/CB for 2021 that would make us a great team - but our O wouldn't be the limiting factor as it's been the past 4 seasons.    It's entirely fair to say "we don't really know" - I don't think we can say Stafford's had the chance to really shine - and I don't mean, "top 10 OL, great WR corps, good to great D".  I'm talking "top-half D", "good WR corps", and "top-half OL" - and most importantly - coaching staff that won't be so transparent in game planning (AP-heavy vs Swift, which doesn't telegraph run vs. pass) / run-run-pass sequencing to drain clock).    I don't know that he's worth a top 10  1st round pick (or top 15) that DEN or SF would have to give up - that's fair.   But I think he'd help those teams with a significant impact.   I'm actually surprised if DET trades him, because of how important he is to them.    Guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

 

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

DOUBLE POST

Edited January 14, 2021 by Broncofan

[CWood21]

If Stafford is healthy, I'd say yes.  But he's struggled with injuries the last few years.

[FrantikRam]

Depends what we mean by good team.

On the Niners? Super Bowl

On the Vikings? No difference

On the Colts? contender for sure but I don't think he would move the needle that much

[TheEagle]

2 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Kirk Cousins and Matt Stafford strike me as the type of QBs that fans overrate because they put up pretty box score numbers.

They are similar, but Stafford has shown the ability to be clutch--whereas Cousins mostly chokes in the big moments.

[Jameson_Neat]

56 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

This is a fair asssessment, but I would only offer a couple of expanded points:

1.  Stafford's coaching staffs the last 3-4 years have been incredibly underwhelming - these are staffs that have come up with the idea that AP should be the focus of the run game (and thus give the predictability for D's to hedge against).  Or the strategy of letting the O try and drain clock, and shorten the game - which again, leans on the run game - and thus put Stafford in very predictable passing downs.  I can actually defend the 2nd strategy, but both philosophies certainly puts one arm tied behind Stafford's back. 

2. The lack of good run game is pretty much a career-long phenomenon.   

I'm not picking on A-Rod, he's elite - but the comp above and career contrast is remarkable.

There's no doubt Stafford's best seasons were about compiling stats in garbage time.    That's a very fair criticism.   But we should recognize Stafford has faced some career-long challenges.    And he's had some years with a lot of comebacks - and those have been on his shoulders.   And we've seen his arm talent shine many times.    Maybe he would struggle if he's the focus and allowed to cook - but it's very fair to say he's really never been given a sustained chance.

I do think Stafford would be a big difference maker if a team is good, but whose biggest weakness is at QB.   That's SF, DEN - and to be upfront, I don't think DEN's D has the MIKE, or the DL/CB for 2021 that would make us a great team - but our O wouldn't be the limiting factor as it's been the past 4 seasons.    It's entirely fair to say "we don't really know" - I don't think we can say Stafford's had the chance to really shine - and I don't mean, "top 10 OL, great WR corps, good to great D".  I'm talking "top-half D", "good WR corps", and "top-half OL" - and most importantly - coaching staff that won't be so transparent in game planning (AP-heavy vs Swift, which doesn't telegraph run vs. pass) / run-run-pass sequencing to drain clock).    I don't know that he's worth a top 10  1st round pick (or top 15) that DEN or SF would have to give up - that's fair.   But I think he'd help those teams with a significant impact.   I'm actually surprised if DET trades him, because of how important he is to them.    Guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

 

 

This is a pretty good assessment.  

The guy has been consistently asked to carry a team that is bottom tier in several team categories. Stafford has obviously made mistakes along the way but he's gotten minimal support from the organization.

[patriotsheatyan]

Slightly overrated. 
 

Not consistently healthy, doesn’t post elite numbers (not once in 12 years), consistently loses, never won a playoff game. He gets called clutch for having big fourth quarters against bad teams that he didn’t do much against for three quarters. 

[Forge]

3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

If Stafford is healthy, I'd say yes.  But he's struggled with injuries the last few years.

The injuries are a legit concern at this point at his age. My only worry if the niners were to acquire him. I will give him credit for suiting up every game this year given how many times I heard about him getting hurt. 

[biggie.]

I don't see why not provided he goes to a team that is just a quarterback away. 

 

[KingOfNewYork]

I've mocked him to San Francisco this off-season. Makes a lot of sense IMO. 

[CWood21]

7 hours ago, KingOfNewYork said:

I've mocked him to San Francisco this off-season. Makes a lot of sense IMO. 

Assuming San Francisco's offense hasn't changed much, I'm not sure I really like Stafford in a Shanny offense.

[lancerman]

21 hours ago, JonMcC2018 said:

I never get statements like this. Here are some of the QBs who have made it to a Super Bowl in the last 10 years alone:

- Joe Flacco

- Eli Manning

- Colin Kaepernick

- Zombie Peyton Manning

- Cam Newton

- Nick Foles

- Jared Goff

- Jimmy Garoppolo

Look back at the decade before and you have the likes of Trent Dilfer, Rex Grossman, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Delhomme, Kerry Collins, Brad Johnson. So good to average (and even bad) QBs get to the Super Bowl all the time.

Making it to a Super Bowl as a QB is as much luck and circumstance as anything else. Matthew Stafford is absolutely 100% capable of going to a Super Bowl. As was Philip Rivers. Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it cannot.

Okay let’s look at each of these. Eli, Flacco, and Foles all completed elevated their game when they got in the playoffs those years. Like each of them had at the time historically significant QB performances in the playoffs. Flacco was also known for playing at a high level in the playoffs during that time frame, Foles played well enough that it’s legitimately debatable if they would have won with Wentz who was an MVP contender and Eli is one of the streakiest QB’s ever. 
 

Kaepernick in the early 2010’s was one of the top young QB’s. The fact that he fell off later doesn’t change that he was highly regarded as a future star at the time. 
 

Peyton Manning had an all time great defense to the level that it is something that you can only expect once or twice a decade across the entire league. 
 

Cam was an MVP. It’s stupid to even compare 2015 Cam to Stafford. You are comparing an MVP to a guy who has one Pro Bowl.

 

Goff was considered an MVP candidate that year and was really just a step under Mahomes most of 2018. Mahomes and Brees were the only guys really ahead of him that year. 
 

Jimmy G is the only comparable guy imo to Stafford where you can say he wasn’t either playing at a top 5 level that year, playing at a hyper elite level once the playoffs rolled around, or had some sort of world class defense which is unreasonable to expect. 
 

People get hyped up on Stafford because he has decent stats, but in 12 years he’s never won a big game that I can think of. Only 4 winning records and the only notable thing he’s done is his team occasionally pulls off a divisional upset against Green Bay. People are going to post that one year he had like 8 comebacks but most of those were against very mediocre teams. He’s one of those guys the stat sheet makes look a lot better than he really is. He’s had a lot of yards in years he played 16 games and had a ton of attempts (he had the record in attempts and led the league in attempts in his 5000 yard and 4900 yard seasons which were 400-500 yards higher than any other years), his only 100 passer rating season came when he missed half the year. He’s a career 62% completion and 89 passer rating QB who averages 1.7 TD’s and .87 INT’s a game. Then he throws for a lot of yards which is one of the least important stats and a lot of that was playing behind and he also had Calvin Johnson in those early years he put up his best bulk numbers. He’s consistently above average but he’s not a world beater and he’s not someone I think of when I look at QB’s that are going to take control of games and drag his team to tough victories against top tier teams consistently 

[JonMcC2018]

4 hours ago, lancerman said:

Okay let’s look at each of these. Eli, Flacco, and Foles all completed elevated their game when they got in the playoffs those years. Like each of them had at the time historically significant QB performances in the playoffs. Flacco was also known for playing at a high level in the playoffs during that time frame, Foles played well enough that it’s legitimately debatable if they would have won with Wentz who was an MVP contender and Eli is one of the streakiest QB’s ever. 
 

Kaepernick in the early 2010’s was one of the top young QB’s. The fact that he fell off later doesn’t change that he was highly regarded as a future star at the time. 
 

Peyton Manning had an all time great defense to the level that it is something that you can only expect once or twice a decade across the entire league. 
 

Cam was an MVP. It’s stupid to even compare 2015 Cam to Stafford. You are comparing an MVP to a guy who has one Pro Bowl.

 

Goff was considered an MVP candidate that year and was really just a step under Mahomes most of 2018. Mahomes and Brees were the only guys really ahead of him that year. 
 

Jimmy G is the only comparable guy imo to Stafford where you can say he wasn’t either playing at a top 5 level that year, playing at a hyper elite level once the playoffs rolled around, or had some sort of world class defense which is unreasonable to expect. 
 

People get hyped up on Stafford because he has decent stats, but in 12 years he’s never won a big game that I can think of. Only 4 winning records and the only notable thing he’s done is his team occasionally pulls off a divisional upset against Green Bay. People are going to post that one year he had like 8 comebacks but most of those were against very mediocre teams. He’s one of those guys the stat sheet makes look a lot better than he really is. He’s had a lot of yards in years he played 16 games and had a ton of attempts (he had the record in attempts and led the league in attempts in his 5000 yard and 4900 yard seasons which were 400-500 yards higher than any other years), his only 100 passer rating season came when he missed half the year. He’s a career 62% completion and 89 passer rating QB who averages 1.7 TD’s and .87 INT’s a game. Then he throws for a lot of yards which is one of the least important stats and a lot of that was playing behind and he also had Calvin Johnson in those early years he put up his best bulk numbers. He’s consistently above average but he’s not a world beater and he’s not someone I think of when I look at QB’s that are going to take control of games and drag his team to tough victories against top tier teams consistently 

That's kind of missing the point.

Stafford is without doubt nothing more than a decent-to-average starting NFL quarterback, and has been somewhere in that 10-20 range his whole career. Not elite, not a 'franchise' type quarterback, but probably a good option on a team with lots of talent and solid coaching around him.

The issue is definitively saying that he is the type of guy who could never get to the Super Bowl, because in the right situation he absolutely could. And it would have a lot less to do with his 'mental toughness for the big game' and much more to do with having a good team around him, being coached well, getting some luck in the playoffs and staying injury free. I mean Blake freaking Bortles was one bad call away from being in the Super Bowl three years ago!

[Malik]

Yes, but not really. If you put him like on that Jaguars team that almost made the Super Bowl in 2017 sure, but you could say that for a lot of quarterbacks. He's not making a team like the Bears into Super Bowl contenders though. He's an above average QB in an era where passing is as easy and open as it's ever been. People look at his stats and think he's something more