Falcons hired Arthur Smith as Head Coach

[scar988]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

You're just way more confident in an aging Matt Ryan than I am. To each his own. I'd be looking to move on after 2021 and start over with a young guy on a rookie deal. You're never going to build anything with 40m cap hits at QB.

That's a whole different argument. But I disagree completely with it. This is the idea that the Saints have been building around for nearly a decade now with Brees.

[Packerraymond]

1 minute ago, scar988 said:

That's a whole different argument. But I disagree completely with it. This is the idea that the Saints have been building around for nearly a decade now with Brees.

Yeah they haven't won anything. They were the 7-9 champs until Brees starting taking small cap hits. Brees was also a better QB than Ryan. There's also little to no margin for error in there, the Saints hit on just about every pick from 2016-2017. That's what the Falcons will have to do. Unlikely, but not impossible.

[scar988]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

Yeah they haven't won anything. They were the 7-9 champs until Brees starting taking small cap hits. Brees was also a better QB than Ryan. There's also little to no margin for error in there, the Saints hit on just about every pick from 2016-2017. That's what the Falcons will have to do. Unlikely, but not impossible.

Falcons trading down from 4 and getting an additional couple of picks this year and next would help that issue. Replacing the GM should help too. Especially since it's the same guy that was scouting for the Saints for those drafts.

[y*so*blu]

I'm happy for him. Maybe two Arthurs will be better than one and he can turn Atlanta's fortunes around.

They still have to fix those uniforms though. 😄

[incognito_man]

Smith will likely be in convo for coach of the year simply because Atlanta so vastly underperformed this year in close games, regression to mean would give any coach about +4 wins on this team for 2021.

Wonder if he can live up to the last TEN offensive coordinator people questioned who has now put up a top 3 start in NFL history for head coaches

[scar988]

1 minute ago, y*so*blu said:

I'm happy for him. Maybe two Arthurs will be better than one and he can turn Atlanta's fortunes around.

They still have to fix those uniforms though. 😄

I think the Unis are fine as long as they don't go with the onesie looks.

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

Smith will likely be in convo for coach of the year simply because Atlanta so vastly underperformed this year in close games, regression to mean would give any coach about +4 wins on this team for 2021.

Wonder if he can live up to the last TEN offensive coordinator people questioned who has now put up a top 3 start in NFL history for head coaches

If he can Lafleur it up and go 12-4 next year, I'd love that.

[Packerraymond]

10 minutes ago, scar988 said:

I think the Unis are fine as long as they don't go with the onesie looks.

If he can Lafleur it up and go 12-4 next year, I'd love that.

12-4 is a crap season for LaFleur 😉

[JJ6]

35 minutes ago, scar988 said:

Falcons have more pieces on defense than people realize. They got great performances from Foye Oluokun, Deion Jones, Grady Jarrett, and A.J. Terrell this year with some solid play out of Keanu Neal, and the rotational pieces on their DL of COminsky, Davidson and Davison. Moving to a 3-4 and taking Parsons to play OLB makes infinitely more sense than taking a QB who will sit for at least two if not more seasons at the top of the draft. Trading down and accumulating more picks when there is a true franchise guy coming out at a once a year clip makes infinitely more sense than wasting a QB away on the bench. Also, Smith's offense fits Ryan's skillset more than anyone not named Shanahan. So why not see what he does in it? Ryan has closer to 5-6 years left with Ryan who is closer to a Brees/Brady style QB who can play past the age of 40 than a guy like Lamar Jackson or Cam Newton who are probably gonna be done around 31-32.

Parsons isnt a good enough pass rusher to play SLB in a 3-4. He's an ILB all day.

Grady isn't a good fit playing end 3-4 and we'd have to find a NT. 

So you're essentially compounding our biggest (arguably) problem on defense making a switch to a 3-4. 

I don't know how you consider Marlon Davidson a good rotational piece considering he barely played this year.

Why would the QB you draft sit for 2 years? You could trade Ryan this year as a post June 1st move and save cap space.

 

Edited January 15, 2021 by JJ6

[Forge]

31 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

You're just way more confident in an aging Matt Ryan than I am. To each his own. I'd be looking to move on after 2021 and start over with a young guy on a rookie deal. You're never going to build anything with 40m cap hits at QB.

I don't think that there is anything that suggests that he is in precipitous decline at the current point in time. I don't love the money, but that's a separate issue. I do think that Ryan is still a quality starter in the NFL. I do think that it would be a good chance to reboot if they are willing to give the new coach / gm a grace period, but I could also see how they would think that they should be winning right now, especially if they were to add a couple of key pieces. 

[scar988]

5 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

12-4 is a crap season for LaFleur 😉

lol, I'm ok with 12-4 being what's considered crap seasons.

2 minutes ago, JJ6 said:

Parsons isnt a good enough pass rusher to play SLB in a 3-4. He's an ILB all day.

Grady isn't a good fit playing end 3-4 and we'd have to find a NT. 

So you're essentially compounding our biggest (arguably) problem on defense making a switch to a 3-4. 

I don't know how you consider Marlon Davidson a good rotational piece considering he barely played this year.

Why would the QB you draft sit for 2 years? You could trade Ryan this year as a post June 1st move and save cap space.

 

Parsons would play WOLB in the 3-4 much like Julian Peterson.

Grady could fit just fine at end in the 3-4 and does it often now. There are 3-4 looks the Falcons did under Ulbrich where he was still playing a 3-tech. He could fit just fine doin that full time. Aaron Donald does the same thing. NT could be Davison (who's done it for NO) or Senat.

Not really. The Falcons have more than enough talent on the roster right now.

You don't trade away Ryan this year. That's just dumb for cap reasons to have a guy count 40+ M on your cap to not play a snap for your team while he's doing that. Even if that hit is spread over 2 years.

[scar988]

Just now, Forge said:

I don't think that there is anything that suggests that he is in precipitous decline at the current point in time. I don't love the money, but that's a separate issue. I do think that Ryan is still a quality starter in the NFL. I do think that it would be a good chance to reboot if they are willing to give the new coach / gm a grace period, but I could also see how they would think that they should be winning right now, especially if they were to add a couple of key pieces. 

They were 0-7 in games decided by 6 or less. Including FIVE fourth quarter leads blown. That changes with just adding a solid run game. They are much better than the 4-12 record suggests.

[Gmen]

42 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Counterpoint: Kevin Stefanski.

https://theathletic.com/980870/2019/07/26/teams-dont-have-to-establish-the-run-to-win-games-and-the-analytics-proves-it-but-the-run-isnt-dead-either/?source=user_shared_article

If you have a subscription to the Athletic, this is a good article that discusses run vs pass in today's NFL.

The Browns and Titans to their credit at least utilize play action, which analytics has shown to be effective.

[jrry32]

5 minutes ago, Gmen said:

https://theathletic.com/980870/2019/07/26/teams-dont-have-to-establish-the-run-to-win-games-and-the-analytics-proves-it-but-the-run-isnt-dead-either/?source=user_shared_article

If you have a subscription to the Athletic, this is a good article that discusses run vs pass in today's NFL.

The Browns and Titans to their credit at least utilize play action, which analytics has shown to be effective.

For the Rams, establishing the run to some degree tends to factor heavily into our offense's effectiveness. I don't disagree with analysts that running into a brick wall to say you're running the ball is a bad strategy, but the numbers guys sometimes miss some of the more nuanced aspects of the game.

[ReggieCamp]

3 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

For the Rams, establishing the run to some degree tends to factor heavily into our offense's effectiveness. I don't disagree with analysts that running into a brick wall to say you're running the ball is a bad strategy, but the numbers guys sometimes miss some of the more nuanced aspects of the game.

Agreed.  The Titans and Browns run the ball because Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt are really good.

[scar988]

1 hour ago, Gmen said:

https://theathletic.com/980870/2019/07/26/teams-dont-have-to-establish-the-run-to-win-games-and-the-analytics-proves-it-but-the-run-isnt-dead-either/?source=user_shared_article

If you have a subscription to the Athletic, this is a good article that discusses run vs pass in today's NFL.

The Browns and Titans to their credit at least utilize play action, which analytics has shown to be effective.

One thing that they haven't studied yet, that I think factors in, is that you don't have to establish the run game to win games in general, but you do have to establish it in the red zone.