Journey to Ring 3: Club Evaluation & Building Another Champion

[DreamKid]

43 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Corey Linsley (mid tier)

Linsley and Scherff are the biggest name IOL hitting FA, but I wonder if we'd have interest in Joe Thuney?

Proven high end RG we could slot in immediately. Then if Orlando doesn't get traded we'd have the right side solidified going into the draft which has a pretty strong group of Centers this year.

So -   LT: Stanley LG: Bozeman 😄Rookie RG:Thuney RT: Brown 

We wouldn't be breaking the bank and would only have to rely on one Rookie OL piece in 2021. We've gotten away from scenarios where Orlando stays in the forum lately, but the above is a palatable one for me. And even if he does go, Thuney could be a smart addition as it puts a Vet between two spots where we might have Rookies starting. 

[drd23]

2 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

Linsley and Scherff are the biggest name IOL hitting FA, but I wonder if we'd have interest in Joe Thuney?

In his most recent column Jeff Z's "spicy take" was that we'd sign one of those 3 instead of a big name WR. 

IDK if it's based on something he's heard from an insider or just what he's surmised from public statements in the same way some of us have, but I figure it's worth notin

[DreamKid]

I like how there's an article on the team site pondering whether the other OBJ would be a target/good addition for the Ravens. 

It's mostly just parroting fluff clips off some sports show, but it does show how disconnected the writers are over there.

Not only has Marlon got into an actual fight with that clown, but our defense mocks them(OBJ + Landry) in viral clips every chance they get. It's just a ridiculous notion.

😂 - https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/late-for-work-2-19-would-ravens-be-good-fit-for-odell-beckham-jr-if-he-s-availab

[diamondbull424]

32 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

Linsley and Scherff are the biggest name IOL hitting FA, but I wonder if we'd have interest in Joe Thuney?

Proven high end RG we could slot in immediately. Then if Orlando doesn't get traded we'd have the right side solidified going into the draft which has a pretty strong group of Centers this year.

So -   LT: Stanley LG: Bozeman 😄Rookie RG:Thuney RT: Brown 

We wouldn't be breaking the bank and would only have to rely on one Rookie OL piece in 2021. We've gotten away from scenarios where Orlando stays in the forum lately, but the above is a palatable one for me. And even if he does go, Thuney could be a smart addition as it puts a Vet between two spots where we might have Rookies starting. 

Based on projections, Linsley should be much cheaper than both Scherff and Thuney. According to Spotracs calculated market value indicator, Thuney’s market value will be between $13.7 and $15.3M APY; conversely based on their calculations and because the NFL hates the center position (financially speaking), Linsley’s market value will be between $9.7M and $11.2M APY.

Assuming these values hold true, I think Linsley becomes our most likely FA target... especially given a scenario where the front office pounces on Ricky Wagner as a veteran RT and thus have an inside recruitment track.

Would allow us to go into the draft with the OL covered (as Patrick Mekari is an above average RG). Though with Bozeman on the last year of his deal and with both Linsley and Wagner above 30, the OL would still be a scenario where guys like Creed Humphrey, Wyatt Davis, and Walker Little would be potential BPA options on the second day.

But I agree, it would be wise for the front office to sign at least one FA OL option heading into the draft. Though considering the strength of this class is in the OL, we’d probably be a little foolish to not at least dip into the talent at some point or another with a young upside talent. Would be like being a WR needy team that didn’t dip into that 2019 WR class.

 

Edited February 20, 2021 by diamondbull424

[M.10.E]

Stanley - Bozeman - Linsley - Powers - Wagner; Mekari, Bredeson, Phillips, Rookie OT.

I'd be happy with that assuming we get a 1st for Brown.

[RavensfanRD]

2 hours ago, M.10.E said:

Stanley - Bozeman - Linsley - Powers - Wagner; Mekari, Bredeson, Phillips, Rookie OT.

I'd be happy with that assuming we get a 1st for Brown.

Hopefully, that 1st round pick is from the Chargers at 13 so we can trade up for Kyle Pitts 😆

[diamondbull424]

2 hours ago, RavensfanRD said:

Hopefully, that 1st round pick is from the Chargers at 13 so we can trade up for Kyle Pitts 😆

Hoping the Giants or Cowboys get involved.

I prefer a scenario where we pick swap 10 and 27, 2022 1st, and either pick swap our conditional 3rd for their 2nd... or just take their 3rd straight up.

It might only be 3 picks, but those 3 picks could make all the difference between obtaining an elite talent that fits our squad... and falling just short of acquiring that guy and being forced to trade down for the secondary market options.

[ThatJaxxenGuy]

If we got Pitts and improved the oline our offense would be unstoppable. I fully expect Hollywood to take a big leap next year, and Mandrews is Mandrews 

[RavensfanRD]

9 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Hoping the Giants or Cowboys get involved.

I prefer a scenario where we pick swap 10 and 27, 2022 1st, and either pick swap our conditional 3rd for their 2nd... or just take their 3rd straight up.

It might only be 3 picks, but those 3 picks could make all the difference between obtaining an elite talent that fits our squad... and falling just short of acquiring that guy and being forced to trade down for the secondary market options.

I'm trying to double dip in the 1st rounder or trade 27 for multiple picks back rather than pick swap. We'll have to give up something hefty going from 27 to 10 and I'm good on that. Keep that, tbh.

[diamondbull424]

Just because I said I would do a mock offseason where we sign Allen Robinson to prove that it could be done.

Obviously we could go in many different directions overall. For cap moneys, I used McFarland’s info... and I know that obtaining another 1st round pick will likely increase our draft spend, but I didn’t compute the difference. Granted, I also could have restructured Justin Tucker’s deal and Marcus Peters deal to free up additional cap space, if needed. So there’s additional money we could create- probably another $10m we could create if need be, but I feel like the numbers should be close enough. I also didn’t pull out a spreadsheet for the Rule of 51, but just eyeballed OTC’s numbers. 

For FA player values, I used spotrac’s market values when available. If not available, I just sort of made assumptions as to how much a player might sign for. Ricky Wagner for example signed a similar deal last year when he was a year younger. So I gave him similar money upfront. I gave some of our current guys slight pay raises. Not sure though if EDC might be able to get them for similar values as last year.

In terms of the mock draft, I tried to make the mock draft as “realistic” as I could, cross referencing all three of the popular mock draft simulators to qualify players. For example, Pitts was available in 2/3 and thus I made him the selection. Also I put a cap to one trade allotted per round max, so as not to overly take advantage of the computer. The main simulator used for the draft was https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com as it has the best/most realistic trade system and is far less randomized than PFN’s mock system, it’s far closer to The Draft Network’s simulator. Since only PFN projects the comp 3rd, I looked over all three draft boards to look to find a player that seemingly could be available, Ronnie Perkins was thus the pick.

Anyways, while it’s not quite as extensive as I’ve done in the past, considering @drd23 sort of already debunked the myth that Allen Robinson at $20m/year couldn’t fit under our cap and still allow us to sign other quality options... I felt far less need to put in quite that level of time commitment to go full on spreadsheet mode and instead just went with a more generalized attempt.

For anyone interested, the Mock Offseason is below.

Spoiler

Ravens 2021 Salary Cap: 18.2m
Considering Draft Cost: $13.9m
Considering In-Season Carryover: $10m (spending money)

2021 Mock Off-Season (Allen Robinson)
Extensions/Restructures/Trades:
- Brandon Williams: 1 year extension, $6m signing bonus, $1.5m salary (fully guaranteed). Saves $3m. Williams is still an elite run stopper, the value is there, and just like Smith he could be convinced to start signing some extensions as a veteran leader on the defense. Better to free up only $3m than cutting him and free up $7.5m but having a gaping hole at NT. Deal would be a win/win.
- Ronnie Stanley: Restructure with additional $5.25m bonus proration. Saves $4.2m
- Orlando Brown Jr trade: Chargers, Pick#13. Frees up $3m.
Total Savings: $10.2M

FA Offseason Total: $20.2M (Spending Money)
- Ricky Wagner: 2 yrs, $9.5m, $3.5m SB, $5.5m guaranteed at signing. $3.75m Cap Charge. Remaining: $16.45M (mid tier signing)
- Derek Wolfe: 2 yrs, $7m, $2.5m SB.  $2.75m Cap Charge. Remaining: $13.7M
- Von Miller: 2 yrs (+1 void year), $20.75m, $11m SB, $12.5m FG. Cap Charge: 5.5m Remaining: $8.2M (mid tier signing)
- Allen Robinson: Using Brian McFarland’s projected deal. 2021: $6.4m cap charge. (As shared by @drd23. Remaining: $1.8M (high tier signing)
- Pernell McPhee: 1 yr, $1.8m, FG. Remaining: $0.00
- Jihad Ward: 1 yr, $1.2m (veteran salary benefit, rule of 51)

2021 NFL Mock Draft:
1.13- Kyle Pitts, TE
1.27 (trade down)
1.32- Wyatt Davis, RG
2.47- Creed Humphrey, OC
2.58- (trade up- two 4ths)
3.104- Ronnie Perkins, Edge
5.152- James Wiggins, S
5.159- Cade Johnson, WR
6.186- Divine DeAblo, S

QB- Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley (2)
RB- JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Patrick Ricard (4)
WR- Allen Robinson, Hollywood Brown, Devin Duvernay, Miles Boykin, Cade Johnson (5)
TE- Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Nick Boyle, Eric Tomlinson (4)
LT- Ronnie Stanley, Patrick Mekari (2)
LG- Bradley Bozeman, Ben Bredesen (2)
OC- Creed Humphrey, Trystan Colon Castillo (2)
RG- Wyatt Davis, Ben Powers (2)
RT- Ricky Wagner, Tyre Philips (2)
Offense: 25

OLB- Pernell McPhee, Jaylon Ferguson (2)
ILB- Patrick Queen, Chris Board (2)
ILB- Malik Harrison, LJ Fort, Otaro Alaka (3)
OLB- Von Miller, Ronnie Perkins (2)
DE- Calais Campbell, Jihad Ward (2)
NT- Brandon Williams, Broderick Washington (2)
DT- Derek Wolfe, Justin Madubuike (2)
CB- Marlon Humphrey, Jimmy Smith (2)
FS- DeShon Elliot, James Wiggins (2)
SS- Chuck Clark, Divine DeAblo (2)
CB- Marcus Peters, Anthony Averett (2)
NCB- Tavon Young, Davontae Harris (2)
Defense: 25

PK- Justin Tucker
P- Sam Koch
LS- Nick Moore
Special Teams: 3

 

Edited February 21, 2021 by diamondbull424

[diamondbull424]

13 minutes ago, RavensfanRD said:

I'm trying to double dip in the 1st rounder or trade 27 for multiple picks back rather than pick swap. We'll have to give up something hefty going from 27 to 10 and I'm good on that. Keep that, tbh.

True. Again for 2021, getting the Chargers pick would likely provide the best possible return to assisting this team in reaching it’s peak ability within Lamar’s rookie window. However, I like the idea of picking up a future 1st from one of those NFCE squads... and hope that they fall apart next season and we can come away with a top 10 pick... in addition to the top 12 pick they would’ve net us in 2021.

Admittedly it’s a less immediate plan of attack and it doesn’t allow us to fully maximize this current teams window, but still, it could be a shrewd move that could pay plenty of dividends the following season.

But I certainly get your point and don’t necessarily disagree with it.

[ThatJaxxenGuy]

looking at the free agent receivers and if we go that route it's Marvin Jones or AJ Green that seem like fits to take Boykin's spot. Most of the young guys are going to be able to find more money elsewhere than here and I don't really want to bring in like a Keelan Cole or Curtis Samuel type for the extra money, because I want to see what we have in Duvernay. 

This feels like one of those offseasons where surprise cuts are really going to shake things up. I wouldn't be surprised if we sign a valuable guy in the summer. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by ThatJaxxenGuy

[coordinator0]

I would be pretty disappointed if the offseason addition at WR ends up being AJ Green. He's done. Give me substance over name value. 

Jones is solid but with the way his name is thrown around on here I think his actual impact would be pretty underwhelming. I can't emphasize enough how much Detroit has relied on the passing game offensively. Jones wouldn't see anywhere near that volume in Baltimore. A real upgrade on Boykin, but that's not saying much. His contract cost would have to lean heavily on the reasonable side for me to get excited about that signing. 

If the Ravens miss out or aren't interested in the top tier of receiver free agents one of the names that sticks out to me is Curtis Samuel. The dude makes plays and can get open. I'm not as interested in getting that big receiver as I am in getting one that fits what Lamar likes to do. Build on that, not the ideal view of what an offense should look like.

[baltimoreRebel]

4 hours ago, coordinator0 said:

I would be pretty disappointed if the offseason addition at WR ends up being AJ Green. He's done. Give me substance over name value. 

Jones is solid but with the way his name is thrown around on here I think his actual impact would be pretty underwhelming. I can't emphasize enough how much Detroit has relied on the passing game offensively. Jones wouldn't see anywhere near that volume in Baltimore. A real upgrade on Boykin, but that's not saying much. His contract cost would have to lean heavily on the reasonable side for me to get excited about that signing. 

If the Ravens miss out or aren't interested in the top tier of receiver free agents one of the names that sticks out to me is Curtis Samuel. The dude makes plays and can get open. I'm not as interested in getting that big receiver as I am in getting one that fits what Lamar likes to do. Build on that, not the ideal view of what an offense should look like.

I agree with most of this. I do think Corey Davis should be our main target in FA though. He's the big bodied wide out we need. Big target for Lamar for clutch catches outside of Mandrews and Brown. 

Hollywood, Davis, Duvernay, Boykin are the notable names we'd have at WR. I'd like to land anlther speedster at WR in the draft like Rondale Moore. Not sure the Ravens will devote another early pick in another 5'9 180lb receiver though. We have the size with potentially landing Corey and with Boykin. Maybe they meet somewhere in the middle and try to grab a guy like Rashod Bateman. Anyways, I'm rambling. 

[diamondbull424]

59 minutes ago, baltimoreRebel said:

I agree with most of this. I do think Corey Davis should be our main target in FA though. He's the big bodied wide out we need. Big target for Lamar for clutch catches outside of Mandrews and Brown. 

Hollywood, Davis, Duvernay, Boykin are the notable names we'd have at WR. I'd like to land anlther speedster at WR in the draft like Rondale Moore. Not sure the Ravens will devote another early pick in another 5'9 180lb receiver though. We have the size with potentially landing Corey and with Boykin. Maybe they meet somewhere in the middle and try to grab a guy like Rashod Bateman. Anyways, I'm rambling. 

While I certainly would be a fan of platooning Hollywood, Davis, and Bateman (don’t like Moore as a fit), I’ll believe it when I see it. The new offensive coaches could potentially institute something new within our offensive scheme- systematically, but I’ll believe it when I see it as to this point, Roman has never went with 3 WR sets frequently enough to allow me to feel confident we’d be getting our value worth of platooning our resources in both Davis and Bateman... which isn’t to say I wouldn’t want another drafted receiver, but probably not one in the 1st round- considering the high probability that Roman will find some way to waste them as he rolls with a line up of Hollywood, Andrews, Boyle, Tomlinson/Ricard, Dobbins.

If we can obtain Davis for roughly $8-11m then I could have some level of interest there, however if he wants anything beyond that amount, I’d rather overspend for the field impact of the superior talent.

Though I do think in the event that we go with Davis, drafting TEs like Pitts or Freiermuth could potentially provide a safer return on our value while also injecting a difference maker into the lineup that we can trust to be utilized properly by Roman. The prospect of 3 TE sets worries me far less if two of them (Andrews/Freiermuth) can shred defenders.

Edited February 22, 2021 by diamondbull424