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2020 NFC Championship - Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers


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Who will win?  

135 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win?

    • Bucs
      54
    • Packers
      81


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I never seen a fanbase so confident on winning a championship game as Packers fans are in this thread. Really. I guess if I had Rodgers I'd look arrogant as well. I never bet moneyline against him because when trying to visualize how games are gonna play I can't see him losing on more scenarios than in those he'd win. He's so talented, can do everything you need from a QB. Everything and he's also very mobile, great throwing on the run to any side. And now he's playing at home! Even the snow will show up to haunt the boys from Florida.

Still, he was shootout 27-0 in the first half last CCG. Got his stats when the game was already out of reach but that was bad. The ints were bad but it happens to every QB (altho, it's very rare for Rodgers to get intercepted, hence I never expect him to lose) but what was bad were the fumbles:

He's one of the best QBs pre-snaps, he rarely misses a blitz and on that game Rodgers missed a corner blitz. But ok, he expected the guard to account for him but what was more strange is that the corner goes almost untouched and needs to shift hard to meet rodgers face to face and rodgers is staring down a receiver (probably Adams) like some rookie QB. Dude didn't even bothered to sack Rodgers he went straight for the ball. He could have kissed Rodgers face mask and Rodgers still wouldn't notice the rush.


Then the fumble on the exchange that he pulled a Cam Newton. He probably had little chance to get the ball but he lost it and didn't seem even fazed, didn't panic, just took a step back and watched. 

It seems Rodgers hates the taste of his own blood when he gets punched in the mouth. Just like in the 1st game against the Bucs. Everything was great on that sunday. 10-0 early. Running planned celebrations with teammates et all. Until he ate a big hit by Winfield on that play that he thought he had a TD then Bowles started sending the blitz packages, more hits and the game changed 180º in the blink of an eye.

tl;dr: Who's gonna punch the Packers in the mouth? If Bucs can't, then Packers win because Rodgers is the better QB right now.

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33 minutes ago, LaFellSBXLIXMVP said:

I never seen a fanbase so confident on winning a championship game as Packers fans are in this thread. Really. I guess if I had Rodgers I'd look arrogant as well. I never bet moneyline against him because when trying to visualize how games are gonna play I can't see him losing on more scenarios than in those he'd win. He's so talented, can do everything you need from a QB. Everything and he's also very mobile, great throwing on the run to any side. And now he's playing at home! Even the snow will show up to haunt the boys from Florida.

Still, he was shootout 27-0 in the first half last CCG. Got his stats when the game was already out of reach but that was bad. The ints were bad but it happens to every QB (altho, it's very rare for Rodgers to get intercepted, hence I never expect him to lose) but what was bad were the fumbles:

He's one of the best QBs pre-snaps, he rarely misses a blitz and on that game Rodgers missed a corner blitz. But ok, he expected the guard to account for him but what was more strange is that the corner goes almost untouched and needs to shift hard to meet rodgers face to face and rodgers is staring down a receiver (probably Adams) like some rookie QB. Dude didn't even bothered to sack Rodgers he went straight for the ball. He could have kissed Rodgers face mask and Rodgers still wouldn't notice the rush.


Then the fumble on the exchange that he pulled a Cam Newton. He probably had little chance to get the ball but he lost it and didn't seem even fazed, didn't panic, just took a step back and watched. 

It seems Rodgers hates the taste of his own blood when he gets punched in the mouth. Just like in the 1st game against the Bucs. Everything was great on that sunday. 10-0 early. Running planned celebrations with teammates et all. Until he ate a big hit by Winfield on that play that he thought he had a TD then Bowles started sending the blitz packages, more hits and the game changed 180º in the blink of an eye.

tl;dr: Who's gonna punch the Packers in the mouth? If Bucs can't, then Packers win because Rodgers is the better QB right now.

Rodgers definitely has a recent history of showing up small against good defenses in big games. This year feels different, though. First off, he demolished a good defense in the Rams. He's making the quick reads and the quick passes. More shorter passes is something he has embraced, and it's paid off. He looks supremely confident. I don't think I've seen him look this good since their SB run.

You are right that the way to beat Rodgers is to get pressure on him, but that's just like every other QB. The Bucs were able to do it earlier this season and the Panthers did it later. Have to be able to get pressure with 3 or 4 while playing coverage.

Edited by childofpudding
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Packers fans in this thread remind me a lot of how Ravens fans were acting last year before they played the Titans. There was no chance we could beat them, MVPLamar wouldn’t be stopped, homefield advantage, on a major hot streak....careful now cheeseheads

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1 minute ago, dtait93 said:

Packers fans in this thread remind me a lot of how Ravens fans were acting last year before they played the Titans. There was no chance we could beat them, MVPLamar wouldn’t be stopped, homefield advantage, on a major hot streak....careful now cheeseheads

I mean this is just silly. Who cares what some random guys say on a forum about the team? Its not like Aaron Rodgers is on here saying "O hey Incognito thinks we are going to win guess I don't have to prepare for the game this week". If Tampa wins it will be because they earned it not due to the overconfidence of some random people on a forum. 

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13 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

I mean this is just silly. Who cares what some random guys say on a forum about the team? Its not like Aaron Rodgers is on here saying "O hey Incognito thinks we are going to win guess I don't have to prepare for the game this week". If Tampa wins it will be because they earned it not due to the overconfidence of some random people on a forum. 

I think he's talking about the fanbase's confidence when he tells Cheesheads to be careful, not the actual Packers themselves.   I mean, it's a chat board.   That's about the only thing discussion can directly influence.

Edited by Broncofan
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10 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

I mean this is just silly. Who cares what some random guys say on a forum about the team? Its not like Aaron Rodgers is on here saying "O hey Incognito thinks we are going to win guess I don't have to prepare for the game this week". If Tampa wins it will be because they earned it not due to the overconfidence of some random people on a forum. 

You missed the point. See @Broncofan‘s response 

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I don't even think this game will be close. I think GB goes out to an early lead and holds on and wins by 7-10 points. Tom Brady was throwing the ball indoors last weekend and there was no zip on it. Scott Miller waited alomst an hour for the ball to make it to him on the big gain. They better hope Ron Jones can carry the load or else they have verl little chance to win. 

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5 hours ago, childofpudding said:

They didn't play great against the Saints but they were decent considering the defense they were playing. The Bucs regularly moved the ball on them. They had three drives of over 60 yards for FGs with one that should have been a TD but for a drop by Godwin , a 40-yard TD drive off a turnover and then, yes, two much shorter TD drives off turnovers.

FO had TB's offensive DVOA for the game at 28%. Only two teams - GB at 61% (!) and KC at 29% were higher.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2021/week-19-dvoa-ratings

Also, the team's weighted offensive DVOA, which looks at the whole season but weighs later games with more importance, actually went up from 26% to 27.2%. Now, that increase could be in part due to putting less importance on TB's poor performances earlier in the regular season. But its one-game offensive DVOA of 28% against NO was higher than its weighted offensive DVOA of 26% the previous week, so its performance against the Saints had some part in that increase as well.

I would say that if TB fans were to be nervous, it would be about their defense. By DVOA they did not play well against WAS and had a good DVOA against NO in large part to the turnovers they forced, something you can't expect will happen against GB. Not a decent formula for going against the best QB in the league running the best offense in the league. I do think TB's D matches up well but GB's offense is an absolute juggernaut right now.

excellent breakdown

one football for you

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32 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

I mean this is just silly. Who cares what some random guys say on a forum about the team? Its not like Aaron Rodgers is on here saying "O hey Incognito thinks we are going to win guess I don't have to prepare for the game this week". If Tampa wins it will be because they earned it not due to the overconfidence of some random people on a forum. 

Aaron reads my posts, let's be real

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