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2020 NFC Championship - Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers


DigInBoys

Who will win?  

135 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win?

    • Bucs
      54
    • Packers
      81


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Also, with a win Sunday Brady will tie Flacco for the most wins by any QB on the road - 7 (excluding the Superbowl)

Yet all I here is Brady is trash on the road in the playoffs, tell me what QB has gone on the road and won games consistently? 

Brady went on the road early in his career twice to Heinz Field and beat the Steelers in the AFC championship game, later on in 2006 he went to San Diego on the road and beat the hottest team in football in the divisional round. Then in 2018 he went on the road in Kansas City in that hostile environment when no one gave Brady a chance and beat the Chiefs in a packed Arrowhead stadium. Then this year he beat the Saints on the road.

It's just those damn Broncos and Mile High where Brady has struggled losing 3 games on the road at Denver apart from that he's been a beast on the road or not. Forget Eli we might have another couple rings in New England if it weren't for those Broncos lol. If only Gronk didn't go down with that ACL in '13 we woulda won that won for sure lol. 

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3 hours ago, LaFellSBXLIXMVP said:

I never seen a fanbase so confident on winning a championship game as Packers fans are in this thread.

You can't blame them for being excited.  Just about every fan base who hosts a conference championship is excited and confident in their team, and they have reason to be.  It's a fun time of the year when your team gets to this point.  I don't begrudge them of that.


Really. I guess if I had Rodgers I'd look arrogant as well.

Actually, I CAN blame them for that.  That would be taking it too far when their team is going up against the GOAT in the conference championship game.  This is just another day at the office for TB.  Being confident is one thing, but being overconfident is tempting fate, IMO.

 

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20 hours ago, DigInBoys said:

Why do most lean Packers when the Bucs destroyed them earlier this year?

Because it was week 6. Both teams are very different now. It’s also in GB. Ask the Bucs how much their even worse blow out at home to the Saints in the regular season mattered... 

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On 1/18/2021 at 6:38 AM, Broncofan said:

Well, this is a doozy matchup.

Re: the weather, we can argue the details, but in a nutshell - Brady's used to the cold weather.   The OL played in cold weather in college, and the skill positions have played in cold weather.   They just played a game that started at 40 degrees, and ended in the 30's, 2 weeks ago.  Honestly, this comes off as a weak narrative.

If we want to look at the matchups, I do like the Bucs' chances, for the following reasons:

-GB's biggest weakness on D is their run game.    Akers had a field day....and frankly, the Rams getting away from the run game is what hurt them the most (that, and Goff's limitations in the pass game).  

-GB's pass rush is OK, but it's not based on heavy inside pressure.  That helps TB12 a ton.   And while Alexander's a beast - they don't have the personnel to really thrive in man coverage.  Brady facing zone is a huge advantage to TAM O. 

-GB losing Bakhtiari exposes them to EDGE mismatches.   Floyd didn't take advantage, but I believe he's a Robin-type pass rusher (needs others to create the big problem, and he feasts on lesser attention).   Donald was clearly nowhere near 100 percent.  I do think

-TAM's DC Bowles found something with the NO game scheme - normally, they play zone to help protect their CB's, but they went man and ILB/safety help for M-Thomas.  I expect something very similar for Davante Adams, and more importantly, the pass coverage scheme in general.    Much like Brady, A-Rod will carve up D's who play zone and can't get pressure - so rediscovering the TAM D mojo is massive for their ability to limit ARod.

Now, on the flip side, GB can easily flip the script from the earlier game, namely:

-TAM is still having major issues getting going in the 1Q.     Literally 3-and-outs for almost the entire 1Q.  And this is literally the 6th or 7th time in 18 games this has happened.   This can't repeat in Lambeau - GB's O is too good not to take advantage.   And they get out to a lead, it all funnels into GB-heavy gamescript.

-TAM's D played heroically to prevent a 14-0 deficit, and when the O wasted a TD drive to be down 6-3, the D stepped up and basically gave the O the go-ahead TD to get them back on script 10-6...and then same with the key fumble down 20-13, and then the clinching TD.    But this isn't a flawed Brees TAM is facing, it's A-Rod, with a better cast of receivers overall (Adams > MT,  Tonyan > Cook, and the supporting cast has been playing way better than NO's). 

-TAM's run game advantage is lessened with RG Cappa out, and most importantly, Ronald Jones hurting.  He pulled up lame after that big run that was called back - and while he still played, that was with the adrenaline of the big game.  If he's out, that's a major downgrade to TAM's run game advantage.

-Finally, GB got a full look at what TAM does best on D.   A-Rod, Lafleur & co. are great at adjustments next-game.  I don't see that changing.

 Ultimately, I see this as a 1-score game, likely a FG game.   Maybe call it 34-31.   The difference on whether it's a TAM/GB game usually lies in the TO's (duh).  NO was a matchup nightmare for TAM, but TAM won by 10 with a +4 differential (and in reality, it's functionally +3, since TAM just ran out the clock with the 4th TO).   TAM matches up so well with GB.   I think if it's a neutral script, TAM wins by 3.   Either way, I'm so looking forward to this - should be a barnburner.

Reasonable take.

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My god. Fans are seriously going as deep as talking about how weather "assimilates" the body and why a team could win because of it?! 

Its common knowledge that everyone is different. Some like the cold....some don't. But that's extent of it. None of it means X player who doesn't like the cold is going to play worse because of it. 

Something like a heavy snowfall, heavy fog, or torrential downpour before or during the game....sure. ALL players' performance will suffer in some way, shape, or form.  But mild cold weather with a little drizzle of light snow isn't going to effect a single player who has access to the latest sideline technology the NFL has to offer along with the benefits of a heated field.  This isn't the 80's anymore. 

Now even kickers and punters will feel the weather effect. Not in this game. 
 

NFC Championship Game Weather Forecast (as of 14 hours ago because we all know weatherman are ALWAYS right)

Weather Data Kickoff (3:05 PM EST) Halftime (4:40 PM EST)
Temperature 20 degrees 17 degrees
Chance of Precipitation 30% 40%
Wind 7 mph 8 mph

 

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19 hours ago, LaFellSBXLIXMVP said:

I never seen a fanbase so confident on winning a championship game as Packers fans are in this thread. Really. I guess if I had Rodgers I'd look arrogant as well. I never bet moneyline against him because when trying to visualize how games are gonna play I can't see him losing on more scenarios than in those he'd win. He's so talented, can do everything you need from a QB. Everything and he's also very mobile, great throwing on the run to any side. And now he's playing at home! Even the snow will show up to haunt the boys from Florida.

Still, he was shootout 27-0 in the first half last CCG. Got his stats when the game was already out of reach but that was bad. The ints were bad but it happens to every QB (altho, it's very rare for Rodgers to get intercepted, hence I never expect him to lose) but what was bad were the fumbles:

He's one of the best QBs pre-snaps, he rarely misses a blitz and on that game Rodgers missed a corner blitz. But ok, he expected the guard to account for him but what was more strange is that the corner goes almost untouched and needs to shift hard to meet rodgers face to face and rodgers is staring down a receiver (probably Adams) like some rookie QB. Dude didn't even bothered to sack Rodgers he went straight for the ball. He could have kissed Rodgers face mask and Rodgers still wouldn't notice the rush.


Then the fumble on the exchange that he pulled a Cam Newton. He probably had little chance to get the ball but he lost it and didn't seem even fazed, didn't panic, just took a step back and watched. 

It seems Rodgers hates the taste of his own blood when he gets punched in the mouth. Just like in the 1st game against the Bucs. Everything was great on that sunday. 10-0 early. Running planned celebrations with teammates et all. Until he ate a big hit by Winfield on that play that he thought he had a TD then Bowles started sending the blitz packages, more hits and the game changed 180º in the blink of an eye.

tl;dr: Who's gonna punch the Packers in the mouth? If Bucs can't, then Packers win because Rodgers is the better QB right now.

Show me a fan or fan base that doesn’t have confidence in their team in the conference championship game and I’ll show you a fan or fan base that isn’t really a fan or deserving of their team. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Nick_gb said:

Show me a fan or fan base that doesn’t have confidence in their team in the conference championship game and I’ll show you a fan or fan base that isn’t really a fan or deserving of their team. 
 

 

Lol what? How is being confident a necessity for being a fan?

I love the Bears but every game scares the crap out of me, guess that means I don't deserve to be a fan.

You can adore your team, and feel as confident or as nervous about any game as you want to.

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2 hours ago, Nick_gb said:

Show me a fan or fan base that doesn’t have confidence in their team in the conference championship game and I’ll show you a fan or fan base that isn’t really a fan or deserving of their team. 
 

 

That was not what I said, and I wasn't even criticizing anyone. I observed something that looked curious to me and commented on it then finished saying that it makes sense due to having Rodgers. Didn't use a single negative adjective to describe the fanbase or insinuate anything. Just an observation. 

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TBF since 2010 the Packers have been the underdogs in every NFC Championship game they have been in. This is the first time I can remember since 2010 that I feel like the Packers can win by just playing there game. Most years it takes uncharacteristic luck or play to get it done. 

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7 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

 

NFC Championship Game Weather Forecast (as of 14 hours ago because we all know weatherman are ALWAYS right)

Weather Data Kickoff (3:05 PM EST) Halftime (4:40 PM EST)
Temperature 20 degrees 17 degrees
Chance of Precipitation 30% 40%
Wind 7 mph 8 mph

 

So basically on TV it won't look any different to a pleasant day apart from seeing the players breath and maybe some squinty eyes

On field it will just be really cold, but they'll soon warm up...

 

Not a big deal at all, you're right

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20 hours ago, JohnCena said:

 

It's just those damn Broncos and Mile High where Brady has struggled losing 3 games on the road at Denver apart from that he's been a beast on the road or not. Forget Eli we might have another couple rings in New England if it weren't for those Broncos lol. If only Gronk didn't go down with that ACL in '13 we woulda won that won for sure lol. 

And he was on fire for 2 of those. Let down by horrendous OL and kicker in one game, the other game the defense was too soft and we had a lot of injuries including Gronk and the tackles. 

Tough games though. Very tough. 

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6 minutes ago, spilltray said:

The question with weather is only partly the cold. If it's cold and snowy, the footing matters more. We saw it in GB vs TN. The Titans were struggling with footing the entire game. 

They didn't want to be there at all. Was it Marshall said he noticed they didn't come out to practice on the field before game? If that's true, says it all. Especially for a team that is supposedly tough.

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