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2020 AFC Championship - Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs


DigInBoys

Who will win?  

77 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win?

    • Bills
      39
    • Chiefs
      38


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1 hour ago, Pats#1 said:

Whole different era of QB play in the early 2000s. Once the rule changes came into play every started putting up Madden Stats.

 

Im not disagreeing that Mahomes is off the best start, just that comparing across eras is tough.  

That is true that we cannot compare raw stats across eras. However, PFR has simple era adjusted stats which paint a pretty fair picture:

 

  • Era Adjusted Passer Rating (Listed in order 2001-04 for Brady, 2018-20 for Mahomes. 100=average)
    • Brady: 111, 110, 107, 115
    • Mahomes: 131, 117, 121
  • Passing Yards/G Rank (01-04 for Brady, 18-20 for Mahomes)
    • Brady: 12th
    • Mahomes: 1st

 

 

Accolades can be compared as well.

Pro Bowls

Brady- 2/4

Mahomes- 3/3

 

All-Pros

Brady- 0/4

Mahomes- 2/3

 

MVP votes

Brady- 8/200

Mahomes- 41/100 (likely <50/150 but TBD)

 

Brady is the GOAT, but those first 4 years he was still developing into an MVP-caliber QB, as we saw him go from game manager in 01 to great QB in 04. Mahomes we have seen as an MVP-caliber QB right out of the gate.

 

Marino is the real comparison, another 2nd year MVP w/ multiple 1st team all-pros in his first 3 years, 3 in his first 4, and led the league in passing AND TDs 2x in his first 3 (3x in 1st 4). I think Mahomes' playoff performances, and the ring (potentially 2), give him the edge but it's certainly comparable. 

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I thought that was one of the least suspenseful conference championship games in recent memory. There was no contrast. No contrast means no chance. Two similar teams with one team markedly superior in every category. 

I have no idea how that pointspread was only -3. That's basically saying these are even teams. Kansas City is one of those teams that wins small when you make them a big favorite and wins big when you make them a small favorite. But when they are a small favorite essentially you are merely asking them to win the game. That means there is no thought process involved.

I mentioned this here at the start of the playoffs, that somehow Buffalo became the cute pick and the darling team. That's fine as long as you don't take it too far. Asking to win at Kansas City is much too far. The first meeting between these teams demonstrated a clear class edge. Plus it meant Kansas City owned the dominant Fury of Anti-Revenge angle in this rematch. As a result I had a major wager on Chiefs -1.5 in the first half. Granted, that's not the way FAR normally works...down 9-0 early. But I've wagered on that angle so many times over the decades I wasn't worried. It is the single most powerful angle in sports betting history. I have no problem saying that because I studied everything in hundreds of Excel spreadsheets over 24 years in Las Vegas. Somehow every clod can only see revenge and never contemplates that the reverse is where all the advantages are. It's no different than boxing...win the first one and you'll win the rematch more decisively. 

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The Chiefs offense just seem to play a different type of sport to everyone else. The ball is snapped and there is an explosion of movement with guys whizzing this way and that. Mahomes wanders off to the side and then throws the ball to whichever of his All-Pro supporting cast are stood wide open down the field. Not that Mahomes isn't incredible but the coaching and play calling is just.. unstoppable. Just getting them to third down is an achievement.

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We have never before seen the best QB in the NFL, the most unstoppable WR, the best TE and a top playcaller - all on the same team.

These games where they score 17 points on the Falcons are just diminishing returns - one guy had a poor game and probably some disinterest because of how good they can be.

It's the most talented offense in NFL history

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1 hour ago, FrantikRam said:

We have never before seen the best QB in the NFL, the most unstoppable WR, the best TE and a top playcaller - all on the same team.

 

I just can't figure out Kelce, the guy is like permanently open. However...Bill B of NE is famous for designing a defense that takes away an offense's strength, forcing them to do something else. When the Patriots flew to KC for the AFC Championship a couple years ago, Kelce only had 3 catches for 23 yards. And that was with them double-teaming Hill on every play. 

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14 hours ago, FinSting said:

I just can't figure out Kelce, the guy is like permanently open. However...Bill B of NE is famous for designing a defense that takes away an offense's strength, forcing them to do something else. When the Patriots flew to KC for the AFC Championship a couple years ago, Kelce only had 3 catches for 23 yards. And that was with them double-teaming Hill on every play. 

This angle, from behind Mahomes, is the perfect illustration of what Kelce does, and the absolute trust and synergy he has with Mahomes, and why that makes him so hard to stop. It isn't always the scheme or the play call, but just the feel between those two. Their LB covered this route absolutely perfectly. The play call left Kelce blanketed, in this case, they just both feel the same spot in the field coming open from the LB who raced over to cover Kelce's curl route, Mahomes keeps his eyes and fakes to the right to keep the LB leaning that direction, and he throws Kelce to that spot just as he starts working open. The LB is trying to read Mahomes, it's a basic zone, but he can't win that coverage assignment unless his eyes are on Kelce.

And then it's all compounded by the fact that no one wants to play man against us. The speed of Hill scares teams away from man coverage, and Mahomes has historically done better against aggressive schemes anyways (heavy man, heavy blitzing, or a lot of single high safety, we destroy.) But so, no one wants to play man coverage against the speed, but then Kelce might be the best zone beater in the league, so you're a bit screwed either way.

 

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18 hours ago, FinSting said:

I just can't figure out Kelce, the guy is like permanently open. However...Bill B of NE is famous for designing a defense that takes away an offense's strength, forcing them to do something else. When the Patriots flew to KC for the AFC Championship a couple years ago, Kelce only had 3 catches for 23 yards. And that was with them double-teaming Hill on every play. 

Not sure if it was that game or the regular season game, but NE put Hightower on him on the line and used him to blast Travis at the LOS. Threw him off a bit.

Kelce is really clever against zone, and as Jak just said, he has a telepathic relationship with Pat. It's probably obvious to both of them where the ball is going to go. Against man he often fights his way through jams and coverage and finds another advantageous spot. Just a really intelligent receiver 

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