What will the Browns do with ODBJ

[soflbillsfan]

46 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Context is key - CLE faced 5 bottom 7 pass D's in JAX, CIN, LV, TEN, HOU - and got to face PIT sitting their guys, and then PIT a 2nd time with Big Ben & Pouncey handing them +5 in TO's.    They did do well against BAL's D and OK vs. PHI's middle-of-pack D (man they've fallen off a cliff this year - 16th in DVOA).    But if they want to go far in playoffs, having guys who can beat elite pass D's one on one, is essential.     If the Browns had that guy, sure, let OBJ walk.   But right now, they really don't - Landry is a zone beater, and no one else is ready to make that leap.  

CLE has already done 2 key steps to build a sustainable contender - they've got an elite RB tandem to give them a great run game, and the OL is a top 5 blocking unit.  That latter part is huge, since it hides Baker's biggest weakness (very few QB's do well vs. pressure, but Baker truly struggles there, compared to the elite tier).    Giving him weapons who can beat 1 on 1 coverage is the key to him playing well vs. elite D's (along with the other 2).  Those guys don't grow on trees.   

If CLE had that 1-on-1 playmaker, sure.  But they don't....not yet, anyways.   For the savings, it's not worth it.  They're not bringing in a 1-on-1 playmaker WR at 12.5M.   

Its not about worth it is about what other things they can do with that money extending the players on the oline and the running backs as that is what is the offense is based around, which you mention. 3 of the front 5 will be free agents and will be commanding extensions, the 2 rbs will be fa in a year, baker will be seeking a new deal as he is on the last year of his rookie deal.  hen you got guys on defense like Ward who will be seeking an extension. Odel has had 3 serious season ending injuries and incapable of staying healthy (playing 2 full seasons in his career) and when he is he is a side show. As I mentioned if you can land a 1 or 2 for him take the deal and run with it build up the core and bring in a young talent through the draft and rid themselves of the distraction. Browns will likely keep him just in hopes of him turning it around but the team would be just fine without him and find a young threat in the draft like the vikings did in Jefferson.

[AkronsWitness]

11 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

Its not about worth it is about what other things they can do with that money extending the players on the oline and the running backs as that is what is the offense is based around, which you mention. 3 of the front 5 will be free agents and will be commanding extensions, the 2 rbs will be fa in a year, baker will be seeking a new deal as he is on the last year of his rookie deal.  hen you got guys on defense like Ward who will be seeking an extension. Odel has had 3 serious season ending injuries and incapable of staying healthy (playing 2 full seasons in his career) and when he is he is a side show. As I mentioned if you can land a 1 or 2 for him take the deal and run with it build up the core and bring in a young talent through the draft and rid themselves of the distraction. Browns will likely keep him just in hopes of him turning it around but the team would be just fine without him and find a young threat in the draft like the vikings did in Jefferson.

While I agree that I would much rather shed OBJs salary than risk losing guys like Teller/Ward/Chubb--what he does bring to the team is invaluable. When OBJ/Landry are on the field, defenses have to respect the deep ball and it forces teams to play off the line.

When OBJ got injured it allowed teams to be hyper aggressive around the line and stack the box to stop Chubb/Hunt. He keeps defenses honest and that allowed the run game to be even more dominant.

With that said, you could probably find a cheaper, younger replacement.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, soflbillsfan said:

Its not about worth it is about what other things they can do with that money extending the players on the oline and the running backs as that is what is the offense is based around, which you mention. 3 of the front 5 will be free agents and will be commanding extensions, the 2 rbs will be fa in a year, baker will be seeking a new deal as he is on the last year of his rookie deal.  hen you got guys on defense like Ward who will be seeking an extension. Odel has had 3 serious season ending injuries and incapable of staying healthy (playing 2 full seasons in his career) and when he is he is a side show. As I mentioned if you can land a 1 or 2 for him take the deal and run with it build up the core and bring in a young talent through the draft and rid themselves of the distraction. Browns will likely keep him just in hopes of him turning it around but the team would be just fine without him and find a young threat in the draft like the vikings did in Jefferson.

Here's the key part with extensions - they very rarely increase the cap hit for the present year, because of the structure that's heavy on signing bonuses.    For example - with Ward, you have a 9.4M cap hit.    If you extend him, and drop his salary to 1M, and you give him 30M in guaranteed money - you actually decrease his 2021 cap hit.   This is a common move teams make that are cap strapped, but for final-year players, it's just a standard move, so long as the team isn't cap-strapped to a worse degree for future years (and CLE isn't at all - more on that shortly).   

The extensions signed in 2021 with signing bonuses & present-year conversion likely make the deals cap-neutral for 2021.   The kicker is that 2022 has 94M+ in cap space.    Chubb & Teller are the only guys who are going to increase their 2021 cap hit with an extension, but it's likely to be a 4-5M increase only, given signing bonuses can be spread over the life of the deal (so 4-5 years, and RB's seldom get more than 25M bonuses).  Extensions won't be a problem for CLE.    And keep in mind that once an extension is signed after June 1 - the present-year bonus money actually gets deferred to the future year.    So in fact, Teller & Chubb extensions (and anyone else) likely won't even make a dent in the 2021 salary cap.

Arguing that CLE is somehow cap-strapped because they need to extend guys doesn't hold for the present year if players are in their final year, and have a large present-year salary - and it's a total non-factor if the extensions happen after June 1.   The signing bonus that players want, and the timing after June 1, ensures that the hit is felt in future years.    I'm going to predict with a high degree of confidence that CLE will extend every one of their young players, even with OBJ on the team - because of the way extensions work cap-wise, and the Browns' 2022 cap health (again, 94M+).

Now if you want to argue that OBJ could get a draft return that merits consideration - you're talking about a guy coming off ACL injury.   No team is willing to pay a premium for that, not with the draft WR talent this year.   They'd certainly kick the tires if he was a value - but there's no need to pay a premium pick to take on the risk.  CLE's bought into the risk, the return isn't worth it.   Given that he actually addresses an actual need they have, when you do the math, OBJ staying would be a -500 probability event odds wise IMO.

The real alternative venue CLE should explore is finding his future replacement.  It could be DPJ, but CLE should be actively hedging their bets and looking for another weapon, preferably with a vertical component, in case DPJ isn't the answer (especially since Landry's lifespan as a difference-maker is finite, as well).    But that's a 2022+ based move.   For 2021, CLE & OBJ seem married to each other.   Get more alternatives in-house who are cheap (Day 2 draft pick anyone?), and then we have a very interesting convo...

Edited January 19, 2021 by Broncofan

[Gmen]

A potentially great career derailed by injuries.  The spectacular catches feel so long ago to me.

[ThatJaxxenGuy]

Young emotional Odell would have lit it up with these Browns. He used to play with fire but I always felt like the media went after him so much that he kind of shut down and now he has this “too cool” style.

That coolness meshes weirdly with Baker who wants to get fired up and emotionally vested in the game. If Beckham can recapture some of his fire from his younger years I think Cleveland should keep him. 

[candyman93]

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Sunday showed what a pass O without a talent like OBJ does vs. a strong pass D with an actual functional O.    Baker had a supreme 2H...vs. a great QB schedule.    I give him full marks, when there's a clean pocket, he thrives.  But you still need guys to get open - and that's OBJ.   Landry's great at the short game, but OBJ can win short & in the deep game.   That's what CLE lacks.

You keep OBJ.   In 3-wide, it's Landry in the slot, Higgins in the other outside position, and OBJ in the X.   2-TE with Higgins sitting out.     Don't overthink it.

I’ve said this for months. We have 2 guys that can beat man to man coverage: Jarvis Landry and David Njoku. Even then, Jarvis can really struggle at times.
 

I think DPJ absolutely can as he develops. He kinda flashed that ability this year.

[Broncofan]

Just now, candyman93 said:

I’ve said this for months. We have 2 guys that can beat man to man coverage: Jarvis Landry and David Njoku. Even then, Jarvis can really struggle at times.
 

I think DPJ absolutely can as he develops. He kinda flashed that ability this year.

I mentioned it a few posts later - DPJ's shown flashes.   But you don't want to bank on him making the leap year 2.   And you do need to think about replacing Landry, too, if the cliff comes sooner, or he gets hurt.   Landry beats man to man less than he's a fantastic zone beater.  And his man to man wins are in the short areas.   That's why you need the intermediate-deep playmaker that can beat man, or even bracket coverage.   OBJ does that.

I think CLE would be well served to draft a Day 2 WR.  It's a deep class (again).   DPJ & new guy would be the future.   And by 2022, you can consider moving on from OBJ.    But you're also *that* close to actual SB contention.  You don't downgrade the win-now team if you're that close.  That's the issue.  If this was the 2018 Browns, absolutely, it's going to take another 1-2 years.  But you're here now.   Again, if you could get premium compensation in a trade, it's worth considering, but given that's unlikely, and you can't replace what OBJ can bring to your O easily (rookies take time, and FA's who are that good and in peak form don't fall off trees).

I mean, if CLE wants to break the bank for Golladay - ok, that's a convo worth having (they aren't winning the ARob sweepstakes).  But short of that, you keep OBJ.

[Chiefer]

12 hours ago, Counselor said:

Get rid of him so DPJ can shine. 

I’m fully in on DPJ getting more snaps, either pair him with a draft pick or keel OBJ

[MWil23]

OBJ (outside #1)

Jarvis Landry (slot/outside hybrid)

Higgins (outside #2)

DPJ (Future #2 outside guy IMO)

...there's your group of 4 contingent. The Browns need a burner, and without OBJ, they don't have one.

They also have 2 very good TE to go with 2 elite RB and an elite OL.

[Chiefer]

8 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

OBJ (outside #1)

Jarvis Landry (slot/outside hybrid)

Higgins (outside #2)

DPJ (Future #2 outside guy IMO)

...there's your group of 4 contingent. The Browns need a burner, and without OBJ, they don't have one.

They also have 2 very good TE to go with 2 elite RB and an elite OL.

All they need is a Tyreek to open things up and they’re set on offense. Defense needs some work though 

[MWil23]

12 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

All they need is a Tyreek to open things up and they’re set on offense. Defense needs some work though 

Their defense is an abomination outside of Myles and Ward

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

Their defense is an abomination outside of Myles and Ward

Well, hopefully Greedy Williams isn't done.   And your interior DL is fine.   You need Delpit to work out, though (then it makes Harrison usable as more an in-the-box enforcer).

The real issue is that you need a big LB upgrade.  Mack Wilson is the only guy I'd want on your roster next year out of the top 4 on now, and I wouldn't want him to be the key piece.  Fortunately, it's a devalued position, and one of the easiest for rookies/2nd year guys to have an impact, but it's going to take a little good fortune if you need to upgrade all 3 spots in 1 offseason. 

[BrownLeader]

On 1/18/2021 at 2:03 AM, Thomas5737 said:

Odell damn Beckham Jr

I think the value will be low enough that it makes more sense to hang on to him. If we could get a WR burner and a defensive starter I'd be interested. Or just a stud on defense. Probably not happening unless the situation is right.

Keeping OBJ pretty much lets you focus on the defense. No real holes on offense. anywhere from 4-7 holes on defense that need looked at.

you can't keep both Landry and Odell at what they're paying them.

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

CLE's bought into the risk, the return isn't worth it.   Given that he actually addresses an actual need they have, when you do the math, OBJ staying would be a -500 probability event odds wise IMO.

There might be more risk there though. Problem is that it's not just coincidence that Baker played better when he was gone. For whatever the true reason...Baker hasn't looked as good with OBJ on the field. Not sure they want to **** with the chemistry again after they just moved mountains to get their franchise QB back on track.

14 hours ago, Counselor said:

Get rid of him so DPJ can shine. 

figured this was sarcasm but...

DPJ looks like a very mediocre talent. ..don't think #2 WR is in his future.

[Scoundrel]

1 minute ago, BrownLeader said:

you can't keep both Landry and Odell at what they're paying them.

There might be more risk there though. Problem is that it's not just coincidence that Baker played better when he was gone. For whatever the true reason...Baker hasn't looked as good with OBJ on the field. Not sure they want to **** with the chemistry again after they just moved mountains to get their franchise QB back on track.

figured this was sarcasm but...

DPJ looks like a very mediocre talent. ..don't think #2 WR is in his future.

Naw he’s skilled. Just because you weren’t high on him as a draft prospect. Have to learn it’s okay to be wrong. 

[BrownLeader]

6 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Naw he’s skilled. Just because you weren’t high on him as a draft prospect. Have to learn it’s okay to be wrong.