Tk3 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 (edited) The concept came up a lot with Lamar and Josh Allen and Baker this weekend and whether they should "get paid" this offseason. I'll do my best to sort these QBs into buckets Older QBs on big contracts (short term) Big Ben $34M AAV Kirk Cousins $33M AAV Drew Brees $25M AAV Tom Brady $25M AAV Phil Rivers $25M AAV Generally speaking, with the exception of Cousins, these players were super proven, you knew what you were getting, and were comfortable paying somewhere in the 10-14% of cap spot, knowing that its short term Older QBs on big contracts (4+ year contracts) Russell Wilson $35M AAV Aaron Rodgers $33.5M AAV Matt Ryan $30M AAV Ryan Tannehill $29.5M AAV Matthew Stafford $27M AAV Alex Smith $23.5M AAV Again, you have a few superstars here, along with a few very proven guys Young QBs who recently "got paid" Patrick Mahomes $45M AAV Deshaun Watson $39M AAV Jared Goff $33.5M AAV Carson Wentz $32M AAV Jimmy G $27.5M AAV Derek Carr $25M AAV Teddy Bridgewater $15M AAV via free agency This is where it gets interesting. You sort of have a couple tiers of salary here. You have the "market setting" guys in Mahomes and Watson. Goff and Wentz technically belong in that category IMO because they really were in that place when the contracts were signed. Mahomes and Watson just came over the top afterwards. Then you have the Jimmys, Carrs, Teddys who are quick a bit lower. This is real the big question lies. If they QB is a top 3 type of guy like Mahomes and (fringe of that conversation) Watson, then you make it work. But those contracts are absolutely killing the Eagles, and probably will hamper the Rams, even though they made the playoffs this year. I'll be very curious to see if there is room to fill in a roster around Watson, and we are yet to see the long term implications of Mahomes cap situation Young QBs who didn't "get paid" Dak Prescott $31.4M franchise tag Marcus Mariota $8.8M no second contract Jameis Winston $1.1M no second contract Mitch Trubisky Rookie contract, fifth year option not picked up Young QBs who are up next Baker Mayfield Josh Allen Lamar Jackson The real question is whether that lower tier (Jimmy, Carr, etc) guys is even an option for these 3. Are they guys who will either get paid at the top of the market or get it somewhere else? Are these guys worth the $40M contracts of Mahomes or Watson? Would they ever agree to that $25-30 range? I'm curious to see how these teams are going to handle the negotiations and cap space edit:: using spotrac for contract info Edited January 18, 2021 by Tk3 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 As far as the decision on Baker/Josh/Lamar, I think you have to give all 3 the fifth year extension Personally, I don't feel great about extending any of them at that $40 range THIS offseason, even my guy Josh Allen who I've been saying is on the level of Mahomes. I think if Josh Allen gives me a first 6-8 games of 2021 at MVP level, then I'll give him $40 midseason Lamar, I think I want to see the same thing, but again, I'd probably pay him somewhere in that same range. He can do things nobody else can, but he also needs more tools around him to complement him. I'm very torn on roster construction with that team, but I think there's room to pay him and still give him the targets around him. Probably can't pay a top defense though I think for Baker though, I'm currently not wanting to pay him at that level. At the very least I want to see a great 2021 from him to get comfortable, but right now I'm not wanting to pay him more than the JimmyG/Carr range, because I think he needs more talent around him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 I think the big thing is... how many QBs in the league can you REALLY pay 12%, 14%, 16% of cap to and NOT bottle down your team? And it sort of feels like teams are throwing that to the wind and just ramping up QB pay beyond what historically has been given. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 27 minutes ago, Tk3 said: Young QBs who recently "got paid" Jared Goff $33.5M AAV Carson Wentz $32M AAV Jimmy G $27.5M AAV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Tk3 said: I think the big thing is... how many QBs in the league can you REALLY pay 12%, 14%, 16% of cap to and NOT bottle down your team? And it sort of feels like teams are throwing that to the wind and just ramping up QB pay beyond what historically has been given. People would probably consider me to have an extreme view on this, but I don't think there's many QBs at all worth that %. You mentioned Baker, who apparently everyone thinks is good now. Strange that when a competent coach who FINALLY played and crafted the offense around it's strengths, and cooked up some good plays to take advantage of their strengths - Mayfield is now considered key? Reality is, there's loads of QBs who could do what he does behind that OL, with that running game, with that coaching, with the receiving talent they do have. It's the same story for Jimmy, Goff, Cousins etc. Why you giving QBs like that the same money that Watsons, Rodgers etc get? If I visualize it, I'm thinking a QB like A-Rod is around 60-70% of why the offense is really good. Bakers, Cousins, Jimmys etc - like 30-50%? Something like that. Obviously not an exact science at all, but pay doesn't reflect the talent and what they do to elevate, IMO. On the other hand, they've got a QB who knows the system and can do his job and it's good to not have the problem of having no QB whatsoever. Like New England right now, hehe. Edited January 18, 2021 by BigTrav 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I've said it before, but my wholly unrealistic NFL QB view is that the middle class is huuuuuuuuuuuuuuge, and when I have someone like Shanny running an offense, my QB is either great or cheap. There's 100% no in between. I'm not paying any of those middle of the road guys. If I have a rookie and his deal comes up and I'm not sold on him as a great QB, he's not my dude. I'm not giving you a contract that runs 12-15% of my cap every year. It's not worth it. Is that a realistic expectation of what an NFL team will do? Probably not. This is easy for me to say as a fan when I have no skin in the game. Moneyballing the position seems great in theory, but in practical application is probably not doable. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.Buzz Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 What is the alternative here? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, .Buzz said: What is the alternative here? trade for a boatload of picks, build a stupid good defense, and roll with a journey-man QB or a young, cheap guy to keep that window open. Like a cheap Goff is good enough to win a SB with, but an expensive Goff is not. They should have traded him. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magnifico Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, .Buzz said: What is the alternative here? A team like Cleveland that hasn't sniffed a competent QB in years isn't going to trade Baker away for a what if. Damned if you do. Damned if you don't. You pay them and hope they'll continue to improve. Just need to hope they'll let you structure it with some reasonable outs. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJaxxenGuy Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 (edited) I think Josh Allen will get extended in the middle of next year like TC said. Not that he hasn't earned it, they just want to see him start off a new season nicely. I see him getting a pretty megabuck deal - short of Mahomes but still high enough to be in that neighbourhood of QB contracts. Lamar is a guy I hope we retain for whatever he wants. This is the Ravens, the fact that we have an elite offensive playmaker like Lamar is crazy. We owe this man a blank check for making him run power football up the middle for 3 years without weapons to take the heat off but I expect it to round out to something similar to Josh Allens (for a mil or 2 cheaper a year) though I reckon we do a 5 year deal where Josh gets 6-7. 38-41 mil a year ish, lots of guarantees. Analytics will probably tell you not to do this with a running QB but I don't really care. I hope we lock him up for a long deal and give him a modern offense that won't grind him into the dirt. Baker Mayfield holds the chips in Browns negotiations. The Browns won a playoff game and he played decently throughout their season. THe Browns don't do that much in the lifetime of new generation fans. If they can get him for 32-34 mil that's a steal IMO. If he bets on himself and makes playoffs again playing well without a new contract they will have to foot a mega deal. Lots of cap being eaten ala Kirk Cousins but that's the market and the Browns shouldn't risk the blowback of shipping out Baker and ending up in QB hell for another 20 years. Mayfield won't singlehandedly drag down your roster like has happened to some teams lately (He's much better than Goff and Jimmy G IMO) but with a big contract the Browns will be hoping he does elevate his play. Edited January 18, 2021 by ThatJaxxenGuy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.Buzz Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, Magnifico said: A team like Cleveland that hasn't sniffed a competent QB in years isn't going to trade Baker away for a what if. Damned if you do. Damned if you don't. You pay them and hope they'll continue to improve. Just need to hope they'll let you structure it with some reasonable outs. Exactly. It's crazy to me that people think they can let middle of the road/solid QBs walk and they'll just figure it out. There isn't some decent enough guy just lounging around out there. Do you see what a lot of teams are fielding at QB every year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Tk3 said: I think the big thing is... how many QBs in the league can you REALLY pay 12%, 14%, 16% of cap to and NOT bottle down your team? Cap guru Andrew Brandt has talked about this often, trying to shed a little light on QB pay ( and overpay) He says: It doesn't matter if you pay your QB 12 % or 20% of the cap so long as he plays at that level. IF you pay him 15 % of cap and he plays like 9 % of the cap - that's where you run into big problems with the rest of your roster. Pay has to match performance. Rodgers performance in 2020 translates to a OTC valuation of $37 M, which is what his cap number is for 2021 $37M is a massive chunk of cap space - but if you get an MVP performance out of it - the value is there. https://overthecap.com/player/aaron-rodgers/1085/ Edited January 18, 2021 by Shanedorf 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 The problem is the phrasing of the question. The NFL collective bargaining agreement allows a draft and below market rates for 4 years for QBs. If you draft a good QB and don't have to pay him then good for you. The market rate for any good QB is around 30-35 million now. The market for borderline or question mark guys is around 20 million. The fair solution would be to just let every 5th year QB become a free agent or you have to actually pay them. Should Green Bay, New England, Indy, NY, and New Orleans have all moved on after the first expired contract of their SB QBs? I think only Brees on that list won a SB on the first contract and not after that. (it was his 2nd contract but 1st in NO) If the point of this whole too much money to the QB means no Super Bowls then you would have to conclude that Rodgers 2011-2019 was a failure. If that is the argument then the whole conversation is pointless because I want a Rodgers instead of throwing the dice for a deal on a rando QB. This is the classic Ryan Howard's (Phillies slugger) contract is outrageous! argument. His contract when he was MVP and winning playoff games was equally outrageous but that's how the CBA is structured. 11 years and 180 million was fine for Howard. People were just butthurt that most of the money came when he started to decline. They were fine with him getting 350k as league MVP though when he was worth 20m. Paying Wilson is expensive for the Seahawks. Its still a much better deal than cutting him so he signs with the 49ers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Its a weird argument because people who constantly state that players should stick it to management and get what they are worth are often the ones also saying that you can't pay QBs big money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trojan Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Derek Carr is shown as the budget contract here, but he was the highest paid QB when he signed that deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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