Are teams too quick to "pay" young QBs? Small study of current QB contracts

[incognito_man]

12 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

Yeah There’s a reason why he had no market  this offseason.

 

 

i don't know what to tell you, man. The Saints were in play for the #1 seed despite playing a FB at QB for like 5 games.

[lancerman]

This league views QB's as so incredibly valuable that very shortsighted decisions are treated as musts if you even think you have a franchise QB. Take Josh Allen, he's in his third year and he's having an amazing break out season. Going into the year people thought he would be a weak link. He would hardly be the first QB to have a breakout season in his rookie contract and then regress back after. In fact it happens alot. Doesn't mean he will. But it happens and if it does, they are screwed for a long time if they pay him now. 

[squire12]

34 minutes ago, lancerman said:

This league views QB's as so incredibly valuable that very shortsighted decisions are treated as musts if you even think you have a franchise QB. Take Josh Allen, he's in his third year and he's having an amazing break out season. Going into the year people thought he would be a weak link. He would hardly be the first QB to have a breakout season in his rookie contract and then regress back after. In fact it happens alot. Doesn't mean he will. But it happens and if it does, they are screwed for a long time if they pay him now. 

part of that "regression" is after the rookie QB timeframe runs out, the allocation of cap space to the QB negatively effects the other positions.  

Teams lose something on the OL or WR or the defense has less.  So the supporting cast overall is not as good (in relative terms from a cap space available) and the QB needs to be able to lift more of the team.  Some can, some can't....hence the regression

[CP3MVP]

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

i don't know what to tell you, man. The Saints were in play for the #1 seed despite playing a FB at QB for like 5 games.

Yeah but You’re saying a career losing QB who turns the ball over at a historic rate was going to win a playoff game where he has shown no indication he can actually beat good teams because of one pass to a Wide open WR.

The sentence “they woulda won if they played jameis” should never be uttered unless you’re talking about the falcons.

Edited January 19, 2021 by CP3MVP

[incognito_man]

2 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

Yeah but You’re saying a career losing QB who turns the ball over at a historic rate was going to win a playoff game where he has shown no indication he can actually beat good teams because of one pass to a Wide open WR.

The sentence “they woulda won if they played jameis” should never be uttered unless you’re talking about the falcons.

you didn't watch the game i take it

[thebestever6]

4 hours ago, incognito_man said:

was like Favre vs Giants in 2007 NFCCG with Rodgers waiting. GB would have been in the SB that year if McCarthy had put Rodgers in

I think it's a bit different brees was averaging 4.5 yards a completion. Strangles an offense, kills a run game, and gets the defense juiced.

Favre had all his abilities and Rodgers was basically a rookie with little playing time. That's a high pressure situation even though I tend to agree it should of happened.

It's rare to see a relationship as strong as Payton and Brees. I don't even think Bill B and Tom have one close to that even with all Their success. Brees rejuvenating the Saints after Katrina was so big and he's been a staple. Maybe it's not just a business after all. I kinda feel bad for Cam Jordan I would of made that move so he has a shot for a title.

[CP3MVP]

7 hours ago, incognito_man said:

you didn't watch the game i take it

You haven’t watched Jameis Winston’s entire football career since his freshman year at FSU I take it

[thebestever6]

27 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

You haven’t watched Jameis Winston’s entire football career since his freshman year at FSU I take it

He did get Lasik and was familiar with the Bucs D also threw a beauty on the trick play. I think it was worth a shot to play him . Brees averaging 4.5 yards per completion, and turning the ball over was no better at least the threat of keeping the defense honest is their with winston.

[FinSting]

This topic is one that causes GM's to lose sleep. Boils down to a case-by-case basis, one size doesn't fit all. Exhibit A is Carson Wentz, Exhibit B is Josh Allen. Meanwhile, Nathan Peterman is still an NFL QB.

Round and round it goes.  

[thebestever6]

6 minutes ago, FinSting said:

This topic is one that causes GM's to lose sleep. Boils down to a case-by-case basis, one size doesn't fit all. Exhibit A is Carson Wentz, Exhibit B is Josh Allen. Meanwhile, Nathan Peterman is still an NFL QB.

Round and round it goes.  

My thought process is the same with Wentz and Allen if you trade a bunch of stuff to go get your guy you should extend him early.

Wentz hasn't been the same since 2017 but my God the injuries for then every year it's crazy. I thought he played well last year with very little to even get them into the playoffs.

[SkippyX]

17 hours ago, squire12 said:

I think looking at it from purely a Super Bowl win or not is too restrictive.  Yes, that is the ultimate goal, so not getting that is an issue.   But If a team is paying 15% of their cap to the QB, that QB better be getting that team to the playoffs 75+% of the time on that type of cap hit.  Once in the playoffs, then stringing together a few wins can get you there. 

Players like

Stafford -- few playoff appearances
Ryan -- 2 years of playoffs since inking his 1st big contract in 2013
Cousins -- 1 playoff appearance 3 years with MIN

 

QB purgatory (top 10-20 QB) not elite enough to be able to lead a team that has to go cost conservative at other positions due to the QB contract, yet not awful enough to know you need to find a better option and able to win enough games that you are not picking high in the draft to get a QB.

Stafford is the perfect example of not worth the money.

Its always an excuse with him.

If he can't lead a mediocre to good team (depending on the year) over teams that are better then he is not worth 10 million, let alone 30.

Enough stats to look good while you lose is not what GMs should be paying for

[SkippyX]

6 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

My thought process is the same with Wentz and Allen if you trade a bunch of stuff to go get your guy you should extend him early.

Wentz hasn't been the same since 2017 but my God the injuries for then every year it's crazy. I thought he played well last year with very little to even get them into the playoffs.

Wentz had good numbers in 2018 but made 2 boneheaded decisions at the end of games so he was 5-6 instead of 7-4.

Wentz was pretty awesome in 2019 with a crappy team (his numbers should have been better with 3 or 4 really awful game changing drops)

• He had 48 TDs to 14 picks in 27 games between 2018-19 (96.7 rate)
• He was like a Dak Prescott 8-8 with that 14-13 record those years.

Wentz was horrific last year and there is no excuse.

 

If you are paying him you hope you can fix what went wrong last year and put a team around him.

[SkippyX]

Old School Brees was an example of worth the money even on mediocre teams.

The Saints had some horrific D's and some 7-9 or 8-8 years but Brees would sometimes win games 41-37 because that's what they needed.

It the D was competent then he took them back to the playoffs.

Sometimes he took them even if the D was a mess.

[soflbillsfan]

On 1/18/2021 at 12:32 PM, Tk3 said:

As far as the decision on Baker/Josh/Lamar, I think you have to give all 3 the fifth year extension

Personally, I don't feel great about extending any of them at that $40 range THIS offseason, even my guy Josh Allen who I've been saying is on the level of Mahomes.

I think if Josh Allen gives me a first 6-8 games of 2021 at MVP level, then I'll give him $40 midseason

Lamar, I think I want to see the same thing, but again, I'd probably pay him somewhere in that same range. He can do things nobody else can, but he also needs more tools around him to complement him. I'm very torn on roster construction with that team, but I think there's room to pay him and still give him the targets around him. Probably can't pay a top defense though

I think for Baker though, I'm currently not wanting to pay him at that level. At the very least I want to see a great 2021 from him to get comfortable, but right now I'm not wanting to pay him more than the JimmyG/Carr range, because I think he needs more talent around him

My issue is if you pay to early then you are in Wentz/Goff territory however if you are to late then your paying more then the $40 range as all 3 you mention will be looking at what each other gets. Also you mention Dak, so that is another one where you have one who is trying to set the market. I think it comes down to how good your GM.

Look at what Beane has done paying Tre White the same year, Byron Jones, Marlon Humphrey and Jalen Ramsey. All can be argued who is better then who but Beane got a good deal compared to them as he has less guarantees then the 3 and the average salary puts him behind Jalen and Marlon. Also check out Dion Dawkins deal compared to other such as Tunsil both can be argued as top 5-10 LT in the league but the cost is different. 

I think you put the 5th year option in start discussions and see where they are at mid season to finalize the deal. We both follow the bills so we know what Beane is capable of doing and it comes down to whether or not Josh will play ball and be willing to take a bit more guaranteed but less of a cap hit but I agree all 3 should be looked at during 2022 season and not signed before then. I do not want to see them hitting the Cousins, Dak stage where they are disgruntled with their team (WFT cousins years). I also do not want to be stuck in the Goff/Wentz area where they get a big deal because the team is successful.

[KingOfNewYork]

Draft a QB every few years and develop a pipeline, sustainable system. If the QB prices himself out then trade him for picks and continue building a well balanced team. You dont need to pay your QB a boatload of money if you aren't putting everything on their back to win.