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QBOTF: The Parcells Philosophy and the Lions potential Quarterback of the Future


Karnage84

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Dan Campbell is a Bill Parcells disciple. Parcells has seven key criteria when selecting a Quarterback. 

  1. 3 Year Starter
  2. Started 30 Games
  3. Won 20 Games (0.66%)
  4. 2:1 TD:INT Ratio
  5. 60% Completion Rate
  6. Senior 
  7. Graduating

Looking at the 2021 QB class, we'll see who matches up the closest. 

Justin Fields, Ohio State (3/7)

2 Year Starter (0 pts); 22 games (0 pts); 20-2 (90.9%) (1 pt); 67:9 (7:1) (1 pt); 68.4% (1 pt); Junior (0 pt); Not graduating

Zach Wilson, BYU (5/7)***

3 Year Starter (1 pt); 30 games (1 pt); 20-10 (0.66%) (1 pt); 56:15 (3.73:1) (1 pt); 67.6% (1 pt); Junior (0 pt); Not graduating (0 pt)

Trey Lance, North Dakota State (2/7)

1 Year starter (0 pts); 17 games (0 pts); 17-0 (100%) (0 pts); 30:1 (30:1) (1 pt); 66.9% (1 pt); Junior (0 pt); Not graduating

Kyle Trask, Florida (4/7)

2 Year Starter (0 pts); 28 Games (0 pts); 19-6 (0.76%) (0 pt); 69:15 (4.6:1) (1 pt); 67.9% (1 pt); Senior (1 pt); Graduated (1 pt)

Mac Jones, Alabama (3/7)

1 Year Starter (0 pts); 13 games (0 pts); 13-0 (100%); 41:4 (10:1) (1 pt); 77.4% (1 pt); Junior (0 pt); Graduated (1 pt)

Jamie Newman, Georgia (via Wake Forest) (2/7)

1 Year Starter (0 pts); 13 games (0 pts); 8-5 (61.5%) (0 pts); 26:11 (2.36:1) (0 pts); 60.9% (0 pt); Senior (1 pt); Graduated (1 pt)

 

Edited by Karnage84
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1 minute ago, BarryTheBest said:

Interesting. Look forward to seeing who else you add.

It doesn't guarantee anything - the specific article shows a whole list of successful guys that don't fit this specific criteria. 

https://larrybrownsports.com/football/bill-parcells-criteria-for-drafting-a-quarterback-out-of-college/66264

This list is from 2011 (a trip down memory lane).

Parcells: Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Eli Manning

Non-Parcells:

  • Tom Brady, Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers (5/7 if you count JC stats)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (5/7 was a junior)
  • Josh Freeman (2/7), Joe Flacco (2/7)
  • Matt Cassel, Matt Schaub (6/7 not enough wins)
  • Matt Ryan (6/7 poor INT ratio)
  • David Garrard (5/7 poor completion % and ratio)
  • Kyle Orton (6/7 lacked completion %)
  • Jay Cutler (4/7)
  • Jason Campbell (6/7 lacked TD INT ratio)
  • Carson Palmer (5/7 lacked TD/INT and %)
  • Kerry Collins (3/7)
  • Alex Smith (3/7)
  • Shaun Hill (2/7)
  • Donovan McNabb (6/7 completion %)
  • Sam Bradford (4/7)
  • Matt Hasselbeck (4/7)
  • Brett Favre (5/7 lacked TD-INT, %)
  • Derek Anderson (5/7 lacked TD-INT, completion %)
  • Jimmy Clausen (4/7)
  • Matthew Stafford (3/7) <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
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yeah, especially when it comes to the criteria of games and seasons played, it's a different world from when Parcells' day. QB's who make it to their senior season do so, generally, because they weren't good enough to play early on, or good enough to leave for the draft if they did.

It might still be fair, though, to think that the Lions would lean as far toward experience as they can. Wilson would be the guy, then.

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20 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Why does Fields not get a point for 20 wins with better than 66%? 

Also, Zach Wilson looks to be 5 of 7.  And the two he doesnt have are being a senior and graduating (also not sure if he is graduating but assuming not).  

Good eye. Will adjust. 

Not sure why I looked over Wilson but will add him into the mix shortly. 

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20 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

I'm not sure if that's as meaningful today. That's an old philosophy, though it does have merit, and I don't think that Campbell or Holmes are necessarily married to those criteria. 

You're not wrong... but Parcells is his mentor and it'll just be interesting to see how closely he follows the Parcell's mantra as a HC. We really don't have a lot of information on Campbell. 

As the list does show, you would be bypassing a lot of really good QB's if you stick to this list and require all 7. Some of these traits are really good ones to follow - passing completion (this typically doesn't improve in the NFL); TD:INT ratio (are you making good decisions?). 

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8 minutes ago, Superduperman said:

yeah, especially when it comes to the criteria of games and seasons played, it's a different world from when Parcells' day. QB's who make it to their senior season do so, generally, because they weren't good enough to play early on, or good enough to leave for the draft if they did.

It might still be fair, though, to think that the Lions would lean as far toward experience as they can. Wilson would be the guy, then.

Or... Trask... 😪

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31 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

If they draft a QB this year I hope it’s Wilson. If not I’m hoping for Spencer Rattler next year if he continues his improvement.

I think that the problem is going to be that if the team keeps Stafford, they're probably not going to end up with a Top 2-3 pick unless he gets hurt. He's good enough to elevate the team out of the cellar as long as he's playing. If you keep Stafford, you're probably going to have to give up a lot to trade up and get one of those top guys. 

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On 1/20/2021 at 2:09 PM, Lions017 said:

I think that the problem is going to be that if the team keeps Stafford, they're probably not going to end up with a Top 2-3 pick unless he gets hurt. He's good enough to elevate the team out of the cellar as long as he's playing. If you keep Stafford, you're probably going to have to give up a lot to trade up and get one of those top guys. 

He’s requested a trade so it will get interesting now. 

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