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The Cap Situation


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Just now, AZBearsFan said:

Half the league is totally screwed at 181 unless they build in some sort of economy hardship clause that lets teams have some kind of one year option to allocate portions of their dead cap hits to future years or something. We’d see elite level face-of-the-franchise players having to be cut all over the place with limited places for them to go and be paid along the lines of their value. Not only is that bad for business for everyone, but the NFLPA will take huge issue with it. 

Or, you’re going to see a modification of the contract rules (maybe temporarily so) allowing for teams to make 2021 a WAY lower cap hit than other years. 

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5 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Half the league is totally screwed at 181 

Going to be interesting.

While a lot of the shared revenue didn't take a big hit aside from tickets, some ticket revenue (it used to be 60% not sure what it is in latest deal) and concessions go to local owners only and they ate that big time in 2020. 

 Owners aren't going to suffer all by themselves and just say forget dropping cap.

Deals will have to renegotiated.

Why I said going to be some real veteran bargains this year.   Good year to have cap space.   Like that expansion year deal with Jags and Panthers when they got to pick from unprotected players and made two pretty good teams out of it.

FA is going to get interesting this year.  Media haven't figured it out yet.   Wait until Spring when they do.

(changed my mind a bit as I was typing) see below post.   All these ideas I write are just off cuff ya know.  I don't think about them.  I just jump on here while working and type whatever I am thinking during 10 minutes I have to jack around.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by dll2000
Because I have big pecker - Wild Bill, Green Mile
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1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

Going to be interesting.

While a lot of the shared revenue didn't take a big hit aside from tickets, some ticket revenue (it used to be 60% not sure what it is in latest deal) and concessions go to local owners only and they ate that big time in 2020. 

 Owners aren't going to suffer all by themselves and just say forget dropping cap.

Deals will have to renegotiated.

Why I said going to be some real veteran bargains this year.   Good year to have cap space.   Like that expansion year deal with Jags and Panthers when they got to pick from unprotected players and made two pretty good teams out of it.

FA is going to get interesting this year.  Media haven't figured it out yet.   Wait until Spring when they do.

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe they assume like you guys that owners will just eat it and say lets change rules and keep cap artificially higher than it should be given revenue.

I don't think they will.

We'll see though.

 

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Just now, dll2000 said:

Maybe they assume like you guys that owners will just eat it and say lets change rules and keep cap artificially higher than it should be given revenue.

I don't think they will.

We'll see though.

 

Most likely they simply take future money off what would be a higher cap in future years.   Probably what they will end up doing after a bit of a fight.

Spend it now and take from future people not deciding now is American way.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Maybe they assume like you guys that owners will just eat it and say lets change rules and keep cap artificially higher than it should be given revenue.

I don't think they will.

We'll see though.

 

I'm not saying the owners are going to take the full hit but as I explained on page one I could see them being pretty flexible given how the season went better than expected. 

I'm surprised they haven't worked out a new TV deal yet. Unless they were just waiting until after the SB. They can't even give media outlets any estimates until that's done. 

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On 1/22/2021 at 9:48 PM, JAF-N72EX said:

Between C19, the 17 game season, and the new TV contracts it's too hard to project next years salary cap. If there were ever a worse time for covid to happen it was this year.  

Usually in December they start going over their books for the first run of projections and they usually send it out to all teams typically within a 5M-7M range.  They haven't even been able to do that yet this year and we're coming up on the end of January.   

They wanna start the 17 game season next year but they can't do that until they sign a new TV contract and iron out the details about how to split it between providers. They also wanna start offering more exclusive digital plans for week 17. So it makes it even harder when they don't even know how to project next years revenue until they sign the new TV contract, and then they have to look at the financial impact of covid and figure out how many years it could take to recoup--remember they had to pull out alot of money to revamp their stadiums and team facilities for C19 (that's money lost). 

I think the owners know that it's going to take some time to recoup the financial loss and are going to be pretty lenient on the teams this year given the C19 situation and how well the coaches and players handled it instead of punishing them for it and saying to the NFLPA "hey, we want all of our money ASAP".  Now, if a lot of players/coaches would've opted out and teams would've had to start guys of the street to fill rosters then that would've been a different story because it would've made the league and teh owners look bad. 

I think what happens is that the owners will look at the profit from future digital deals, the extra week, and extra playoff seeds and ultimately go "okay, let's be very reasonable here. We could make this money back by 2023 even if we don't bottleneck these teams this year". 

 

NFL Raises Salary Cap Floor to $180 Million

Good read from Jason on OTC
https://overthecap.com/nfl-raises-salary-cap-floor-to-180-million/

 

As for what triggered the raise who knows. Its such a minor bump that perhaps it was done simply to bring some added clarity to the salary cap situations for some teams. It may have simply been the NFL showing more willingness to borrow from the future or the NFLPA conceding a little on benefits.

The NFL is looking to move to 17 games this year which requires them to negotiate a new media contract if they want to have 17 games. That could be a standalone deal or extending one of their current deals I believe the way that works is if a new deal is negotiated they will recalculate the salary cap for any new money that comes into circulation from the TV contracts. If the league doesnt think that they will have a deal in place before they set the cap, maybe this is just taking into account a minimum expectation for a rise in rights fees which may or may not be in place before March 17. Considering how minor of a bump this is to come so late in the game maybe this is the reason for it.

Teams do need some clarity on the salary cap before they can proceed with certain moves with player contracts so any guidance helps. Usually teams have clarity in December so this is very different.

Not only do they need to know this years cap but likely have some guidance on next years cap as well. If they know that the cap next year would jump back to $220 million this becomes a much easier situation to navigate. If next year is expected to be $190 million than all teams are doing is pushing problems from 2021 into 2022. Once the league informs people of payback schedules for the revenue losses and the TV deals are finalized will we likely have a normal league year.

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