Awsi Dooger Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 10:16 PM, rob_shadows said: Want to win? Bucs Think will win? Chiefs That's where I am. Tampa Bay has demonstrated vulnerability. You can't throw that away as if it never happened. The variables that contributed to the lopsided defeats and 5th seed are still there. As a gambler you always want outliers working against you, not for you. A 43 year old quarterback winning the Super Bowl would be an extreme outlier. Therefore I want the sportsbook to have the side of the wager that needs the 43 year old. That type of philosophy won't win every time but if you continue to apply logical generalities like that it's way ahead in the long run. The team of the year was the Las Vegas Raiders. That can't be emphasized enough. If the Raiders don't keep scoring and win that game at Arrowhead then the Chiefs never throw away the season finale against the Chargers. We're looking at an undefeated season. Legendary first season in Las Vegas for Jon Gruden and the Raiders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 38 minutes ago, Awsi Dooger said: As a gambler you always want outliers working against you, not for you. A 43 year old quarterback winning the Super Bowl would be an extreme outlier. Therefore I want the sportsbook to have the side of the wager that needs the 43 year old. I think chiefs win but is the above really an outlier? It's Tom Brady and he also won a superbowl as a 41 (?) year old QB? If the above is an outlier then that results (which was never really in doubt...lol Goff) would be too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 hours ago, renndawg37 said: They didn't face Shaq Barrett and JPP in all those games though. No but he probably did play against Bosa/Ingram and Von Miller/Chubb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 44 minutes ago, BigTrav said: No but he probably did play against Bosa/Ingram and Von Miller/Chubb Well actually Von never played this year. And Chubb is an effort / motor sacks guy. Whereas Bosa / Ingram played him week 2, where KC was held to 20 pts in regulation and relied on a late comeback to get there and force OT. And again - week 2 was with Schwartz, Fisher & Osemele in the OL. Tampa will need to score more than that to win - but I don’t think using Von / Chubb & Ingram / Bosa vs. this version of the OL and Mahomes battling turf toe really helps the argument, given the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedGold Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 TB needs to rely on the run game, even with their weapons. Throwing it all over the place typically hasn’t worked well for other teams. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedGold Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Broncofan said: Well actually Von never played this year. And Chubb is an effort / motor sacks guy. Whereas Bosa / Ingram played him week 2, where KC was held to 20 pts in regulation and relied on a late comeback to get there and force OT. And again - week 2 was with Schwartz, Fisher & Osemele in the OL. Tampa will need to score more than that to win - but I don’t think using Von / Chubb & Ingram / Bosa vs. this version of the OL and Mahomes battling turf toe really helps the argument, given the above. I believe he was talking about last year. When Fisher was injured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, samsel23 said: I believe he was talking about last year. When Fisher was injured. Fair - but last year’s results don’t matter as much. It’s an entirely different OL, not just Fisher. What matters is how this unit as a group fares. Using 2019 as a reference missing Fisher vs. this OL with 4 starters gone, it’s hard to apply 2019 to next game. Edited January 27, 2021 by Broncofan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedGold Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Fair - but last year’s results don’t matter as much. It’s an entirely different OL. What matters is how this unit fares. Using 2019 as a reference with 4 starters gone it’s hard to apply 2019. Yeah it’s not gonna be perfect, Fisher has been healthy the majority of the time. They were just using a reference as Mahomes stats didn’t drop. Which is mostly due to Andy scheming into protecting the OL, It will be difficult but I’m pretty sure Andy, with 2 weeks, will have a game plan to slow their jumps early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 People keep under estimating the Bucs. When you actually look at their team from top to bottom it is a very good/talented team so I don't know why people are so surprised at their success. Personally I think they have a better overall roster than both of their last two opponents GB and NO..so I wasn't surprised they beat both those teams. Bucs have been underdogs their last three games including this one and the betting public will be all over KC in this one but I think fading Tom the 🐐 is a bad play. Something just tells me they will defy the odds again. They have what it takes to hang with KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirill Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, topwop1 said: People keep under estimating the Bucs. When you actually look at their team from top to bottom it is a very good/talented team so I don't know why people are so surprised at their success. Personally I think they have a better overall roster than both of their last two opponents GB and NO..so I wasn't surprised they beat both those teams. Bucs have been underdogs their last three games including this one and the betting public will be all over KC in this one but I think fading Tom the 🐐 is a bad play. Something just tells me they will defy the odds again. They have what it takes to hang with KC. They had no business beating the Packers. The Packers have a poor special teams and garbage coaching. The Chiefs are a different story. They simply can't be beaten. The game won't even be close either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kirill said: They had no business beating the Packers. The Packers have a poor special teams and garbage coaching. The Chiefs are a different story. They simply can't be beaten. The game won't even be close either. Over/under on you tapping out? I'd say if Tampa Bay takes a 10+ point lead. You'll quit in a heartbeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kirill said: They had no business beating the Packers. The Packers have a poor special teams and garbage coaching. The Chiefs are a different story. They simply can't be beaten. The game won't even be close either. They had no business beating a team they demolished earlier in the season in week 6 and who they were never behind in and control of most of the NFC championship game? Yaa ook buddy. I like when people have confidence in their team but to have no respect for the opponent when it's due is bad taste. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirill Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, topwop1 said: They had no business beating a team they demolished earlier in the season in week 6 and who they were never behind in and control of most of the NFC championship game? Yaa ook buddy. I like when people have confidence in their team but to have no respect for the opponent when it's due is bad taste. They had 10 minutes less in time of possession than GB, they lost the turnover battle with Brady throwing 3 picks. And the Packers defense isn't even good. They're not going to beat KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DannyB Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I just have the feeling that no matter what the score says, the Chiefs will be in total control of the game, that just always seems to be the story. They play blindfolded with one hand behind their back and then whenever they feel like it, Mahomes is suddenly just like "okay, TD, TD, TD". Mahomes legit might win like 8 effing times in the next 10 years or something. I've never seen anything like him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 21 minutes ago, Kirill said: They had 10 minutes less in time of possession than GB, they lost the turnover battle with Brady throwing 3 picks. And the Packers defense isn't even good. They're not going to beat KC. Time of possession doesn't mean much when you don't do squat with it. And Brady threw his 3 picks in the 2nd half when they were still comfortably ahead. Also for what it's worth Green Bay's defense was ranked better than KC's according to final DVOA rankings and Tampa finished 2nd overall in DVOA accounting for both offense and defense. You can take them lightly all you want but don't be shocked to see them win or at least keep it closer than you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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