Forge Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Broncofan said: And TAM's O has a far greater ceiling than a JimmyG-led O does. It's not that TAM is miles better than SF. The D isn't on SF's level last year. By DVOA they're only a -12% unit with the widest variance seen, whereas SF was at -20 percent, near generational. And the eye test showed that. But TAM's O is a 25+ percent unit, unlike SF's 8 percent unit - and the eye test shows that, too. All of which would be far less important if KC had the top 5 OL they played last year being intact. But it's nowhere close, and with Mahomes' limited mobility....it's all about the matchups. A single bad matchup in one key trench area can swing entire game outcomes. Just ask CAR-DEN bettors in 2015, or NYG-NE in 2011. And while Mahomes is clearly the best QB by far, and enjoys a big edge on TB12 current version - this isn't even close to NYG-NE heading into the game, or even CAR-DEN in terms of paper mismatches (Cam ain't Mahomes, but TB12 current version and that O is miles ahead of the Peyton-corpse led O that to this day remains the worst ever O to be called SB champion). I owe you one like 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Yes, I think TB is a bigger threat. But KC this year seems even more unstoppable than last year. All the roads point to the same destination - KC winning the SB again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JiffyJag Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 9 hours ago, BigTrav said: Here we go... 1. Cleveland is a bad matchup for KC 2. Bills are on fire and are the best team going in to the game 3. Tampa and Brady are unbeatable! Just lay back and let it happen. Living in denial is toxic. something here is toxic, for sure 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolmesPriest Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 No. The only threat to the Chiefs is making their own mistakes. If Chiefs bring it like they can, should be a fairly easy win. Also you know Mahomes and company aching for that payback against Brady lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucsfan333 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 9 hours ago, BigTrav said: Here we go... 1. Cleveland is a bad matchup for KC 2. Bills are on fire and are the best team going in to the game 3. Tampa and Brady are unbeatable! Just lay back and let it happen. Living in denial is toxic. I mean. We went through the same crap with the Saints and Packers. 😂 I have no idea how this game will play out. And I'm not gonna pretend I do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans_Matt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 (edited) Yes, but this is due to Chiefs injuries, more so than the Bucs being a better team than the 2019 49ers. Edit-Also the whole Tom Brady being Tom Brady thing Edited January 25, 2021 by Titans_Matt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: And TAM's O has a far greater ceiling than a JimmyG-led O does. It's not that TAM is miles better than SF. The D isn't on SF's level last year. By DVOA they're only a -12% unit with the widest variance seen, whereas SF was at -20 percent, near generational. And the eye test showed that. But TAM's O is a 25+ percent unit, unlike SF's 8 percent unit - and the eye test shows that, too. All of which would be far less important if KC had the top 5 OL they played last year being intact. But it's nowhere close, and with Mahomes' limited mobility....it's all about the matchups. A single bad matchup in one key trench area can swing entire game outcomes. Just ask CAR-DEN bettors in 2015, or NYG-NE in 2011. And while Mahomes is clearly the best QB by far, and enjoys a big edge on TB12 current version - this isn't even close to NYG-NE heading into the game, or even CAR-DEN in terms of paper mismatches (Cam ain't Mahomes, but TB12 current version and that O is miles ahead of the Peyton-corpse led O that to this day remains the worst ever O to be called SB champion). The counter I do want to add to all the OL concerns, is we had mostly the same OL against Tampa the first time (Fisher is the only difference, we were already down Schwartz and LDT and Osemele back then), and if you had to pick any coach to scheme around an over-matched OL, I feel like it would be Reid. He'll have screens and shovels and jet sweeps to confuse the pass rush. Kelce will eat up the shallow center of the field if they blitz their LBs. And they'll find ways to get Hill open deep quick enough for Mahomes to still get it there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 11 hours ago, BigTrav said: Here we go... 1. Cleveland is a bad matchup for KC 2. Bills are on fire and are the best team going in to the game 3. Tampa and Brady are unbeatable! Just lay back and let it happen. Living in denial is toxic. Lol Tampa over Kansas City was my bracket pick and my pre-season pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Jaguarfan said: something here is toxic, for sure Glad someone sees the irony here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrOaktown_56 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 This is a massive insult to Brady. And also, the Chiefs may be missing both starting tackles. Which I think people are somehow still overlooking. Mahomes is great, but that is a big deal for any team. Even an Andy Reid coached one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showtime Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I'd say yes just because QB play is so huge and Brady is just so much better than Jimmy G. The Bucs have it going in the running game and have so many weapons in the receiving game. They also have a defense that gets after the QB and can make some big game changing plays. Hopefully it's a good high scoring game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrOaktown_56 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, showtime said: I'd say yes just because QB play is so huge and Brady is just so much better than Jimmy G. The Bucs have it going in the running game and have so many weapons in the receiving game. They also have a defense that gets after the QB and can make some big game changing plays. Hopefully it's a good high scoring game. I think it will be close. But the DL/OL matchup will determine this game IMO. Again, if the Chiefs can beat TB without both starting tackles, it's an all time accomplishment and a testament to how good this team is right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, Jakuvious said: The counter I do want to add to all the OL concerns, is we had mostly the same OL against Tampa the first time (Fisher is the only difference, we were already down Schwartz and LDT and Osemele back then), and if you had to pick any coach to scheme around an over-matched OL, I feel like it would be Reid. He'll have screens and shovels and jet sweeps to confuse the pass rush. Kelce will eat up the shallow center of the field if they blitz their LBs. And they'll find ways to get Hill open deep quick enough for Mahomes to still get it there. That's entirely fair - and you're giving Reid 2 weeks to prepare, if there's anyone who can mitigate it, it's Reid. But it's undoubtedly a huge difference. Keep in mind Vea did not play vs. KC, either - that adds a huge wrinkle (as the LB blitz White started doing after the LAR L). It's after the LAR game that DC Todd Bowles finally scrapped the zone blitz, zone-scheme, and went to a 5-man blitz, with different directional schemes and stunts, which was far more successful after their L to LAR - going zone and no pressure vs. Goff was a massive mistake - but DC Bowles gets a ton of credit for learning and adapting to his team's strengths. It's a huge reason why the Bucs are playing this week - the D has carried them this far the past 2 weeks, as much as the O is better from last year (whereas Brady & co. picked up the D in WC weekend, where Bowles played way too conservatively - but again, give credit where it's due - he learned & adapted). The thing is with KC, you can't be conservative, on O or on D (doesn't mean you only throw, it means you don't play for the FG, or you play for 3rd and short on D, etc.). You can live or die with big plays, but you can't hope for them to simply make a mistake on O. The biggest hopeful sign for Buc fans is that the last 2 weeks, and since the LAR L (the WAS game being a notable exception), DC Bowles has changed to an aggressive scheme. In the first KC game, it's pretty clear Davis can't cover Hill on his own. It's likely going to be Dean with safety help, this time. Still, Hill & Hardman are the keys to KC winning the game - as MVS showed, the one Achilles their D has, is the deep ball. Hill showed that in spades too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showtime Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, MrOaktown_56 said: I think it will be close. But the DL/OL matchup will determine this game IMO. Again, if the Chiefs can beat TB without both starting tackles, it's an all time accomplishment and a testament to how good this team is right now. Mahomes >>> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djw4bucs Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 (edited) Better passing game than the 49ers yes Better running game than the 49ers no Better pass rush than the 49ers Yes (only because of the injuries on the chiefs OTs 49ers have much better pass rushers) Better Secondary than the 49ers no The injuries on the chiefs line will make and break the game for us If we can keep mahomes in the pocket that would be best for us, when mahomes get out of the pocket all 11 players on the defense turns their eyes to him which lets the chiefs play makers get open. We cant stop mahomes but maybe just maybe we can slow him down, doubt it tho/ Edited January 25, 2021 by djw4bucs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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